Peak fl¬ow events can lead to flooding which can have negative impacts on human life and ecosystem services. Therefore, accurate forecasting of such peak flows is important. Physically-based process models are commonly used to simulate water flow, but they often under-predict peak events (i.e., are conditionally biased), undermining their suitability for use in flood forecasting. In this research, we explored methods to increase the accuracy of peak flow simulations from a process-based model by combining the model’s output with: (a) a semi-parametric conditional extreme model and (b) an extreme learning machine model. The proposed 3-model hybrid approach was evaluated using fine temporal resolution water flow data from a sub-catchment of the North Wyke Farm Platform, a grassland research station in south-west England, UK. The hybrid model was assessed objectively against its simpler constituent models using a jackknife evaluation procedure with several error and agreement indices. The proposed hybrid approach was better able to capture the dynamics of the flow process and, thereby, increase prediction accuracy of the peak flow events.

Identifying and implementing management actions that can mitigate the impacts of climate change on domestically grown crops is crucial to maintaining future food security for the United Kingdom (UK). Crop models serve as critical tools for assessing the potential impacts of climate change and making decisions regarding crop management. However, there is often a gap between yields predicted by current modeling methods and observed yields. This has been linked to a sparsity of models that investigate crop yield beyond field scale or that include data on crop management or crop protection factors. It remains unclear whether the lack of available data imposes these limitations or if the currently available data presents untapped opportunities to extend models to better capture the complex ecosystem of factors affecting crop yield. In this paper, we synthesize available data on plant physiology, management, and protection practices for agricultural crops in the UK, as well as associated data on climate and soil conditions. We then compare the available data to the variables used to predict crop yield using current modeling methods. We find there is a lack of openly accessible crop management and crop plant physiology data, particularly for crops other than wheat, which could limit improvements in current crop models. Conversely, data that was found to be available at large scales on climate and soil conditions could be used to explore upscaling of current approaches beyond the field level, and available data on crop protection factors could be integrated into existing models to better account for how disease, insect pest and weed pressures may impact crop yield under different climate scenarios. We conclude that while a lack of available data on crop management, protection, physiology, at scales other than field level, and for species other than wheat currently hampers advancement of modeling methods for UK crops, future investment into data collection and management across a broader range of factors affecting crops, at larger scales and for a broader range of crop species could improve predictions of crop plant development and yield.