The dynamics of plants’ carbon and water use efficiency and their responses to drought are crucial to the sustainable development of arid and semi-arid environments. This study used trend analysis and partial correlation analysis to examine the carbon use efficiency (CUE) and water use efficiency (WUE) of Inner Mongolia’s vegetation from 2001 to 2020. MODIS data for gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), potential evapotranspiration (PET), evapotranspiration (ET), drought severity index (DSI), and plant type were used. Altered trends were observed for drought during 2001–2020 in the study area. The results revealed that 98.17% of the research area’s drought trend was from dry to wet and 1.83% was from wet to dry, and the regions with decreased drought regions were broadly dispersed. In 2001–2020, CUE in Inner Mongolia declined by 0.1%·year⁻¹, whereas WUE reduced by 0.008 g C·mm⁻¹·m⁻²·year⁻¹, but the total change was not significant. CUE decreased from west to east, whereas WUE increased from southwest to northeast. DSI and CUE had the highest negative connection, accounting for 97.96% of the watershed area, and 71.6% passed the significance test. The correlation coefficients of DSI and WUE were spatially opposite to those of CUE and DSI. In total, 54.21% of the vegetation cover exhibited a negative connection with DSI. The CUE and WUE of different vegetation types in Inner Mongolia were negatively correlated with the DSI index except for grasslands (GRA). Drought in Inner Mongolia mostly influenced the CUE of different plant types, which had a higher negative correlation than WUE. The study’s findings can inform climate change research on Inner Mongolia’s carbon and water cycles.

Accumulated evidence reminds one that abrupt transitions between dry and wet spells, though attracting less attention, have harmful influences upon global continents as extensively investigated droughts and floods. This study attempts to incorporate dryness–wetness transitions into the current hazard assessment framework through bivariate frequency analysis and causal attribution from a teleconnection perspective. In the study, regional dry and wet conditions are monitored using the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) which facilitates the integrated evaluation of water deficits/surplus from a combined viewpoint of precipitation (largely denoting the received atmospheric water) and runoff (representing an important source of surface water). On such a basis, a copula-based method is subsequently utilized to calculate joint return periods of dryness–wetness combinations in three (i.e., moderate, severe and extreme) severity scenarios. The changing frequency of diverse dryness–wetness combinations is also estimated under a changing climate using a 25-year time window. Furthermore, the cross-wavelet transform is applied to attribute variations in dry and wet conditions to large-scale climate indices, which benefits the early warning of dryness–wetness combinations by providing predictive information. A case study conducted during 1952–2010 in the Huai River basin (HRB)—a typical climatic transition zone in China—shows that the HRB is subject to prolonged dryness with the highest frequency, followed by the abrupt transition from dryness to wetness. Spatially, abrupt dryness–wetness transitions are more likely to occur in the southern and central parts of the HRB than in the rest of the proportion. The past half-century has witnessed the dominantly higher frequency of occurrence of dryness–wetness combinations under three severity scenarios. In particular, the occurrence of the continued dry/wetness escalates more rapidly than transition events under climate change. Moreover, a preliminary attribution analysis discloses the link of the dry and wet conditions in the HRB with climate indices, such as the El Niño southern oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Arctic oscillation, as well as sunspot activities. The results of the study enrich the current atlas of water-related hazards, which may benefit more effective hazard mitigation and adaptation.

Droughts have significantly damaged the environment of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. In this study, the region was divided into two subregions. Soil moisture was used as the basic parameter to analyze the characteristics of agricultural droughts. Based on a geographical detector, the spatial stratified heterogeneity in different seasons was discussed. Moreover, the copula joint functions of characteristics and dominant factors of agricultural droughts were constructed. Based on the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI), the results demonstrate that the climate tendency rate of droughts in the summer and in spring in Subregion I shows an increasing trend, while it decreases in the autumn and winter. In Subregion II, the climate tendency rate of droughts in different seasons has no significant change. Through geographical detection, the single factor detection illustrates that temperature and Precipitation Conversion Efficiency (PCE) show the highest explanatory power in different subregions. The interactive detection also demonstrates the explanatory powers of the combination of the PCE and temperature, respectively. The t-copula function describes the correlation coefficients of the SMAPI with the PCE and temperature, with the optimal tail dependence. In short, agricultural droughts are most significantly affected by temperature and the PCE, and their balance has a significant impact on agricultural droughts.

Extreme drought and flood events, as well as their combined events, pose significant challenges to global sustainable socio-economic development and ecological health. However, the impact of dry–wet combination events (DWCEs) on vegetation vulnerability remains to be investigated. The Loess Plateau (LP) was selected as the study area to explore the response time of vegetation to precipitation index changes by optimal correlation coefficient; then, the impact of different DWCEs on vegetation vulnerability under moderate and severe scenarios was analyzed; finally, a vegetation loss probability model was constructed based on the copula function and Bayesian framework, to quantify the vegetation loss probability under DWCEs stress. The results indicate that: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) shows an upward trend in spring, summer, and autumn, with the proportion of areas are 90.5%, 86.2%, and 95.4%, respectively, and show an insignificant trend in winter; (2) the response time of vegetation to precipitation index changes tends to be one or two seasons; (3) moderate scenarios have more influence than severe scenarios, dry-to-wet events (DWEs), wet-to-dry events (WDE) and continuous dry events (CDE) in spring-summer have a significant impact on summer vegetation of Ningxia and Shanxi, and WDE and CDE have a higher impact on autumn vegetation. (4) in terms of the probability of vegetation loss, DWE, and CDE cause higher losses to summer vegetation, while WDE and CDE cause higher losses to autumn vegetation. This study quantifies the impact of adjacent seasonal DWCE stress on future vegetation vulnerability.