Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

We review science‐based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post‐fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science‐based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short‐term risks and uncertainties, the long‐term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.

LiDAR measurements of canopy structure can be used to classify forest stands into structural stages to study spatial patterns of canopy structure, identify habitat, or plan management actions. A key assumption in this process is that differences in canopy structure based on forest age and elevation are consistent with predictions from models of stand development. Three LiDAR metrics (95th percentile height, rumple, and canopy density) were computed for 59 secondary and 35 primary forest plots in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Hierarchical clustering identified two precanopy closure classes, two low-complexity postcanopy closure classes, and four high-complexity postcanopy closure classes. Forest development models suggest that secondary plots should be characterized by low-complexity classes and primary plots characterized by high-complexity classes. While the most and least complex classes largely confirmed this relationship, intermediate-complexity classes were unexpectedly composed of both secondary and primary forest types. Complexity classes were not associated with elevation, except that primary Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carrière (mountain hemlock) plots were complex. These results suggest that canopy structure does not develop in a linear fashion and emphasize the importance of measuring structural conditions rather than relying on development models to estimate structural complexity across forested landscapes.

Following a wildfire, regeneration to forest can take decades to centuries and is no longer assured in many western U.S. environments given escalating wildfire severity and warming trends. After large fire years, managers prioritize where to allocate scarce planting resources, often with limited information on the factors that drive successful forest establishment. Where occurring, long‐term effects of postfire salvage operations can increase uncertainty of establishment. Here, we collected field data on postfire regeneration patterns within 13‐ to 28‐yr‐old burned patches in eastern Washington State. Across 248 plots, we sampled tree stems <4 m height using a factorial design that considered (1) fire severity, moderate vs. high severity; (2) salvage harvesting, salvaged vs. no management; and (3) potential vegetation type (PVT), sample resides in a dry, moist, or cold mixed‐conifer forest environment. We found that regeneration was abundant throughout the study region, with a median of 4414 (IQR 19,618) stems/ha across all plots. Only 15% of plots fell below minimum timber production stocking standards (350 trees/ha), and <2% of plots were unstocked. Densities were generally highest in high‐severity patches and following salvage harvesting, although high variability among plots and across sites led to variable significance for these factors. Post hoc analyses suggested that mild postfire weather conditions may have reduced water stress on tree establishment and early growth, contributing to overall high stem densities. Douglas fir was the most abundant species, particularly in moderate‐severity patches, followed by ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, western larch, and Engelmann spruce. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed species‐level climatic tolerances and seed dispersal limits that portend future challenges to regeneration with expected future climate warming and increased fire activity. Postfire regeneration will occur on sites with adequate seed sources within their climatic tolerances.

Comprehensive spatial coverage of forest canopy fuels is relied upon by fire management in the US to predict fire behavior, assess risk, and plan forest treatments. Here, a collection of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) datasets from the western US are fused with Landsat-derived spectral indices to map the canopy fuel attributes needed for wildfire predictions: canopy cover (CC), canopy height (CH), canopy base height (CBH), and canopy bulk density (CBD). A single, gradient boosting machine (GBM) model using data from all landscapes is able to characterize these relationships with only small reductions in model performance (mean 0.04 reduction in R²) compared to local GBM models trained on individual landscapes. Model evaluations on independent LiDAR datasets show the single global model outperforming local models (mean 0.24 increase in R²), indicating improved model generality. The global GBM model significantly improves performance over existing LANDFIRE canopy fuels data products (R² ranging from 0.15 to 0.61 vs. −3.94 to −0.374). The ability to automatically update canopy fuels following wildfire disturbance is also evaluated, and results show intuitive reductions in canopy fuels for high and moderate fire severity classes and little to no change for unburned to low fire severity classes. Improved canopy fuel mapping and the ability to apply the same predictive model on an annual basis enhances forest, fuel, and fire management.