Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria. Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria (NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve). This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30% respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for > 18 months, use of contraception, small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and good sanitation. This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of U5M in Nigeria. This study has identified important risk factors that will assist in formulating policies that will improve child survival.

Stunting, linear growth retardation is the best measure of child health inequalities as it captures multiple dimensions of children’s health, development and environment where they live. The developmental priorities and socially acceptable health norms and practices in various regions and states within Nigeria remains disaggregated and with this, comes the challenge of being able to ascertain which of the regions and states identifies with either high or low childhood stunting to further investigate the risk factors and make recommendations for action oriented policy decisions.

Objectives: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and antibiotic prescribing, controlling for the presence of common chronic conditions and other potential confounders and variation amongst GP practices and clusters. Methods: This was an electronic cohort study using linked GP and Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) data. The setting was GP practices contributing to the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank 2013–17. The study involved 2.9 million patients nested within 339 GP practices, nested within 67 GP clusters. Results: Approximately 9 million oral antibiotics were prescribed between 2013 and 2017. Antibiotic prescribing rates were associated with WIMD quintile, with more deprived populations receiving more antibiotics. This association persisted after controlling for patient demographics, smoking, chronic conditions and clustering by GP practice and cluster, with those in the most deprived quintile receiving 18% more antibiotic prescriptions than those in the least deprived quintile (incidence rate ratio = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.181–1.187). We found substantial unexplained variation in antibiotic prescribing rates between GP practices [intra-cluster correlation (ICC) = 47.31%] and GP clusters (ICC = 12.88%) in the null model, which reduced to ICCs of 3.50% and 0.85% for GP practices and GP clusters, respectively, in the final adjusted model. Conclusions: Antibiotic prescribing in primary care is increased in areas of greater SES deprivation and this is not explained by differences in the presence of common chronic conditions or smoking status. Substantial unexplained variation in prescribing supports the need for ongoing antimicrobial stewardship initiatives.

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Background: Diabetes is a leading cause of progressive morbidity and early mortality worldwide. Little is known about the burden of diabetes and prediabetes in Namibia, a Sub‐Saharan African (SSA) country that is undergoing a demographic transition.Methods: We estimated the prevalence and correlates of diabetes (defined as fasting [capillary] blood glucose [FBG] ≥126 mg/dL) and prediabetes (defined by World Health Organization [WHO] and American Diabetes Association [ADA] criteria as FBG 110–125 and 100–125 mg/dL, respectively) in a random sample of 3278 participants aged 35–64 years from the 2013 Namibia Demographic and Health Survey.Results: The prevalence of diabetes was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2–6.2), with no evidence of gender differences (P = 0.45). The prevalence of prediabetes was 6.8% (95% CI 5.8–8.0) using WHO criteria and 20.1% (95% CI 18.4–21.9) using ADA criteria. Male sex, older age, higher body mass index (BMI), and occupation independently increased the odds of diabetes in Namibia, whereas higher BMI was associated with a higher odds of prediabetes, and residing in a household categorized as “middle wealth index” was associated with a lower odds of prediabetes (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% credible interval 0.46–0.99). There was significant clustering of prediabetes and diabetes at the community level.Conclusions: One in five adult Namibians has prediabetes based on ADA criteria. Resources should be invested at the community level to promote efforts to prevent the progression of this disease and its complications.