Stock price movement prediction is the basis for decision-making to maintain the stability and security of stock markets. It is important to generate predictions in an interpretable manner. The Belief Rule Base (BRB) has certain interpretability based on IF-THEN rule semantics. However, the interpretability of BRB in the whole process of stock prediction modeling may be weakened or lost. Therefore, this paper proposes an interpretable model for stock price movement prediction based on the hierarchical Belief Rule Base (HBRB-I). The interpretability of the model is considered, and several criteria are constructed based on the BRB expert system. First, the hierarchical structure of BRB is constructed to ensure the interpretability of the initial modeling. Second, the interpretability of the inference process is ensured by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) method as a transparent inference engine. Third, a new Projection Covariance Matrix Adaptive Evolution Strategy (P-CMA-ES) algorithm with interpretability criteria is designed to ensure the interpretability of the optimization process. The final mean squared error value of 1.69E-04 was obtained with similar accuracy to the initial BRB and enhanced in terms of interpretability. This paper is for short-term stock forecasting, and more data will be collected in the future to update the rules to enhance the forecasting capability of the rule base.

Fault diagnosis of complex equipment has become a hot field in recent years. Due to excellent uncertainty processing capability and small sample problem modeling capability, belief rule base (BRB) has been widely used in the fault diagnosis. However, previous BRB models almost did not consider the diverse distributions of observation data which may reduce diagnostic accuracy. In this paper, a new fault diagnosis model based on BRB is proposed. Considering that the previous triangular membership function cannot address the diverse distribution of observation data, a new nonlinear membership function is proposed to transform the input information. Then, since the model parameters initially determined by experts are inaccurate, a new parameter optimization model with the parameters of the nonlinear membership function is proposed and driven by the gradient descent method to prevent the expert knowledge from being destroyed. A fault diagnosis case of laser gyro is used to verify the validity of the proposed model. In the case study, the diagnosis accuracy of the new BRB-based fault diagnosis model reached 95.56%, which shows better fault diagnosis performance than other methods.

The modeling and analysis of sea clutter are of great significance in radar target detection studies in marine environments. Sea clutter typically exhibits non-Gaussian characteristics and spatiotemporal correlations, posing challenges for modeling, especially when generating simulation data of continuous correlated non-Gaussian random processes. This paper proposes a novel method for sea clutter modeling. First, feature description functions are constructed to individually characterize the amplitude, temporal, and spatial correlations of sea clutter, allowing for an accurate depiction of its characteristics with fewer parameters. Subsequently, simulation data are generated based on these feature description functions, satisfying the amplitude distribution, temporal correlation, and spatial correlation characteristics of sea clutter. Additionally, complex signal forms are introduced in the underlying signal processing to generate texture and speckle components of sea clutter, enhancing the alignment of simulation data with actual data. Through comparison with measured sea clutter data, the proposed method has been shown to accurately simulate complex sea clutter with real-world characteristics.

Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in modern society as important energy storage devices due to their high energy density, rechargeable performance, and light weight. However, the capacity and performance of lithium-ion batteries gradually degrade with the number of charge or discharge cycles and environmental conditions, which can affect the reliability and lifetime of the batteries, so it is necessary to accurately evaluate their health. The belief rule base (BRB) model is an evaluation model constructed based on rules that can handle uncertainties in the operation of lithium-ion batteries. However, lithium-ion batteries may be affected by disturbances from internal or external sources during operation, which may affect the evaluation results. To prevent this problem, this paper proposes a disturbance-considering BRB modeling approach that considers the possible effects of disturbances on the battery in the operating environment and quantifies the disturbance-considering capability of the assessment model in combination with expert knowledge. Second, robustness and interpretability constraints are added in this paper, and an improved optimization algorithm is constructed that maintains or possibly improves the resistance of the model to disturbance. Finally, using the lithium-ion batteries provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Prediction Centre of Excellence and the University of Maryland as a case study, this paper verifies that the proposed modeling approach is capable of constructing robust models and demonstrates the effectiveness of the improved optimization algorithm.

Learning emotion assessment is a non-negligible step in analyzing learners’ cognitive processing. Data are the basis of the learning emotion assessment. However, the existing learning emotion assessment models cannot balance model accuracy and interpretability well due to the influence of uncertainty in the process of data collection and model parameter errors. Given the above problems, a new learning emotion assessment model based on evidence reasoning and a belief rule base (E-BRB) is proposed in this paper. First, the transformation matrix is introduced to transform multiple emotional indicators into the same standard framework and integrate them, which keeps the consistency of information transformation. Second, the relationship between emotional indicators and learning emotion states is modeled by E-BRB in conjunction with expert knowledge. In addition, we employ the projection covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (P-CMA-ES) to optimize the model parameters and improve the model’s accuracy. Finally, to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, it is applied to emotion assessment in science learning. The experimental results show that the model has better accuracy than data-driven models such as neural networks.

To address the insufficient utilization of network model features and low search efficiency in kill chain analysis for Weapon System of Systems (WSoS), a complex network model of WSoS based on OODA loop was constructed, which converts the indicator system into attribute features embedded in network nodes, and analyzes the kill chain mode through the metapath. Subsequently, a Depth First Search (DFS) algorithm combined with Graph Attention Network (GAT) is proposed for kill chain search evaluation. The algorithm utilizes GAT to extract topological information and node attribute features from graph data to obtain node-embedding vectors, and optimizes the DFS algorithm process by computing the cosine similarity of node-embedding vectors. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm achieves high search efficiency and accuracy, providing robust support for combat decision-making.