We have investigated the solar flare effects on ionospheric absorption with the systematic analysis of ionograms measured at midlatitude and low-latitude ionosonde stations under different solar zenith angles. The lowest recorded ionosonde echo, the minimum frequency ( f _min , a qualitative proxy for the “nondeviative” radio wave absorption occurring in the D-layer), and the d f _min parameter (difference between the value of the f _min and the mean f _min for reference days) have been considered. Data were provided by meridionally distributed ionosonde stations in Europe and South Africa during eight X - and M -class solar flares in solar cycle 23. Total and partial radio fade-out was experienced at every ionospheric station during intense solar flares (> M 6). The duration of the total radio fade-out varied between 15 and 150 min and it was highly dependent on the solar zenith angle of the ionospheric stations. Furthermore, a solar-zenith-angle-dependent enhancement of the f _min (2–9 MHz) and d f _min (1–8 MHz) parameters was observed at almost every station. The f _min and d f _min parameters show an increasing trend with the enhancement of the X-ray flux. Based on our results, the d f _min parameter is a good qualitative measure for the relative variation of the “nondeviative” absorption, especially in the case of the less intense solar flares, which do not cause total radio fade-out in the ionosphere (class < M 6).

A multi-instrumental analysis of the meridional ionospheric response is presented over Europe during the two largest ICME-driven geomagnetic storms of solar cycle #24 maximum. Data from 5 European digisonde stations, ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System, Total Electron Content (GNSS TEC), the ratio of the TEC difference (rTEC), as well as Swarm and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite observations have been used for the investigation of selected intervals (11–17 November, 2012, and 16–25 March, 2015). The storm evolution is monitored by digisonde foF2 critical frequency (related to the maximum electron density of F2-layer) and GNSS TEC data. Moreover, Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) measurements from the TIMED satellite are used to investigate the changes in the thermospheric O/N₂ ratio. Our main focus was on the main phase of the geomagnetic storms, when during the nighttime hours extremely depleted plasma was detected. The extreme depletion is observed in foF2, TEC and rTEC, which is found to be directly connected to the equatorward motion of the midlatitude ionospheric trough (MIT) on the nightside. We demonstrate a method (beside the existing ones) which allows the monitoring of the storm-time evolution of the disturbances (e.g., MIT, SAPS, SED) in the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere system by the combined analysis of the worldwide digisonde system data (with the drift measurements and the ionospheric layer parameters with 5–15 min cadence), with rTEC and GNSS TEC data, and with the satellite data like Swarm, TIMED/GUVI.

Large-Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs) are wave-like ionospheric fluctuations, generally triggered by geomagnetic storms, which play a critical role in space weather dynamics. In this work, we present a machine learning model able to forecast the occurrence of LSTIDs over the European continent up to three hours in advance. The model is based on CatBoost, a gradient boosting framework. It is trained on a human-validated LSTID catalogue with the various physical drivers, including ionogram information, geomagnetic, and solar activity indices. There are three forecasting modes depending on the demanded scenarios with varying relative costs of false positives and false negatives. It is crucial to make the model predictions explainable, so that the output contribution of each physical factor input is visualised through the game-theoretic SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) formalism. The validation procedure consists of a global-level evaluation and interpretation step, firstly, followed by an event-level validation against independent detection methods, which highlights the model’s predictive robustness and suggests its potential for real-time space weather forecasting. Depending on the operating mode, we report an improvement ranging from +72% to +93% over the performance of a rule-based benchmark. Our study concludes with a comprehensive analysis of future research directions and actions to be taken towards full operability. We discuss probabilistic forecasting approaches from a cost-sensitive learning perspective, along with performance-centric model monitoring. Finally, through the lens of the conformal prediction framework, we further comment on the uncertainty quantification for end-user risk management and mitigation.

This study focuses on the mid- and low-midlatitude ionospheric response to the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, utilizing ground-based and Swarm satellite observations. The ground-based ionosonde measured F1, F2-layer, B0 and B1 parameters, as well as isodensity data, were used. The ionospheric absorption was investigated with the so-called amplitude method, which is based on ionosonde data. Auroral sporadic E-layer was the first time ever recorded at Sopron. Moreover, the auroral F-layer appeared at exceptionally low latitude (35° mlat, over San Vito) during the storm main phase. These unprecedented detections were confirmed by optical all-sky cameras. The observations revealed that these events were linked to the extreme equatorward shift of the auroral oval along with the midlatitude trough. As a result, the midlatitude ionosphere became confined to the trough itself. Three stages of F2-layer uplift were identified during the night of 10/11 May, each caused by different mechanisms: most probably by the effect of prompt penetration electric fields (PPEFs) (1), the travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) (2) and the combination of electrodynamic processes and decreased O/N₂ ratio (3). After a short interval of G-condition, an unprecedented extended disappearance of the layers was observed during daytime hours on 11 May, which was further confirmed by Swarm data. This phenomenon appeared to be associated with a reduced O/N₂ along with the influence of disturbance dynamo electric fields (DDEFs) and it cannot be explained only by the increased ionospheric absorption according to the results of the amplitude method.