The need to search for new measures describing the classification of a logistic regression model stems from the difficulty in searching for previously unknown factors that predict the occurrence of a disease. A classification quality assessment can be performed by testing the change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Another approach is to use the Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI), which is based on a comparison between the predicted risk, determined on the basis of the basic model, and the predicted risk that comes from the model enriched with an additional factor. In this paper, we draw attention to Cohen’s Kappa coefficient, which examines the actual agreement in the correction of a random agreement. We proposed to extend this coefficient so that it may be used to detect the quality of a logistic regression model reclassification. The results provided by Kappa‘s reclassification were compared with the results obtained using NRI. The random variables’ distribution attached to the model on the classification change, measured by NRI, Kappa, and AUC, was presented. A simulation study was conducted on the basis of a cohort containing 3971 Poles obtained during the implementation of a lower limb atherosclerosis prevention program.

(1) Background: So far, research results have confirmed the relationship between heat and cold stress, the fluctuations in atmospheric pressure and high relative humidity, and the vulnerability of patients with so-called “weather-dependent” diseases which could lead to death. This study aimed to determine the meteorological parameters, their interactions, and the seasonal changes of the most significant factors in predicting the number of patients reporting to the Emergency Departments (EDs) in Poznań (Poland) during 2019. (2) Methods: The analysis included the meteorological parameters and data of 3606 patients diagnosed with essential or complicated arterial hypertension, myocardial infarction, chronic ischemic heart disease, and ischemic or unspecified stroke by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). The meteorological data (days per week and seasonal data) were used to build a linear regression model to assess the changes in the daily number of reporting patients. The input data for the final model were selected based on the principal component analysis (PCA), and built for each delay and acceleration (reporting up to 3 days before the change or up to 3 days after the change of the meteorological parameter). (3) Results: A significantly lower number of reports was observed during weekends compared to working days (standardised b = −0.254, p-value < 0.0001) and three days before the maximum daily air temperature in the spring and summer period (standardised b = −0.748, p-value < 0.0001), while two days after the increase in the daily amplitude of atmospheric pressure (standardised b = 0.116, p-value = 0.0267), and also on the day of occurrence of the unfavourable interdiurnal air temperature change, an increase in the number of patients was noted (standardised b = 0.115, p-value = 0.0186). The changes in the last two parameters were statistically insignificant. Based on the obtained results, the negative impact of the changes in the meteorological conditions on the number of reports to the EDs in Poznań was determined.

Introduction: The World Health Assembly adopted the Global Health Strategy and aims to reduce the incidence of Hepatitis from up to 10 million cases per year to 0.9 million cases and to reduce deaths from 1.4 million to 0.5 million per year by 2030. However, given the prevalence of chronic Hepatitis B in many countries and the incidence of new cases of acute Hepatitis B, the task is not easy. This study investigates the trends and determinants of the incidence of acute Hepatitis B in Poland in 2005–2019. Materials and Methods: Data on the incidence of acute hepatitis B (AHBV) were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health. A case definition for AHBV was consistent with the EU definition. The incidence trends were determined by considering the sex, age and place of residence. Due to the exponential dependence model, the computations were based on the logarithm of the incidence rate. This allowed for the transformation to linear form and analysis could be conducted using linear models. Pearson’s correlation was used to determine the linear trend of incidence in general and according to sex and place of residence. The values of incidence rates (independent proportions test) and the coefficients illustrating the trends under study were also compared among males and females as well as urban and rural residents. Results: The incidence of AHBV in the Polish population decreased with similar slopes in both sexes. The newly reported cases of AHBV were more frequent in the male population. The incidence of acute Hepatitis B in the urban population was significantly higher than in the rural population. The significant decreasing trends in incidence were observed in all age ranges, with the exception of two age ranges 0–4 and 10–14, where the total incidence during the whole study period was negligible. Conclusion: Despite the significant decrease in the incidence of AHBV in Poland and its position among the European countries with the lowest hepatitis B (HBV) incidence, the alarmingly high proportion of iatrogenic infections requires further improvement in the sanitary condition of health care facilities. It is also necessary to decrease the number of unvaccinated individuals.

Excess mortality of men has been observed since the beginning of the 20th century. One of the main causes of this phenomenon is malignant cancers, with lung cancer as the main reason. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, a decline in male excess mortality was observed in most developed countries. This study aimed to analyze the changes in the level of excess mortality of men caused by lung cancer between 2002 and 2017 in the countries associated with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In order to compare changes in male mortality rates across countries, the annual average percent change (AAPC) in male excess mortality rate for a given country was calculated. A decrease in excess male mortality due to lung cancer between 2002 and 2017 was recorded in 33 of the 35 countries analyzed. The highest rate of decline was observed in Spain (4.9% per year), Belgium (4.7% per year), Slovakia (4.4% per year) and other European OECD member countries. In most OECD countries, the decrease in excess male mortality was the result of a decrease in mortality in the male population as well as the increase in female mortality. In 10 member countries of the OECD, there was a simultaneous increase in the mortality of men and women, though the increase was higher in the female population. Only in two countries was the decrease in excess mortality of males due to a greater decline in the mortality of men. The decline in male mortality from lung cancer primarily associated with a reduction in tobacco consumption in this population initiated in the 1980s or 1990s (depending on the country) was not observed in the female population.

Background and objectives: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is responsible for 5.3% of deaths worldwide and constitutes the third most common cause of death. The deaths from this cause occur over 10times more often in smokers than in non-smokers. Fortunately, for nearly 30 years, the proportion of people smoking tobacco in Poland has been decreasing. This study aims to analyse the change in premature mortality rates of men and women due to COPD in Poland during 2008–2017. Materials and Methods: The time trends of deaths occurring under 65 were analysed. Standardised premature mortality rates were used, as well as the mortality rates for the five-year age ranges, with a breakdown by gender. The Joinpoint model was used to determine time trends. Results: Over the period analysed, premature mortality in the female population decreased by 2.6% from year to year, albeit without statistical significance, and in the male population there was a decrease by statistically significant 5.2% per year. The biggest drop in mortality, almost 10% per year, was observed in the group of females aged between 50 and 54. Among males, the most significant reduction in mortality was observed in groups between the ages of 40 and 54, and it amounted to approximately 8% annually. With increasing age, the dynamics of mortality reduction decreased. Conclusions: The study showed a steady downward trend in premature mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Poland in both genders. The reduction in mortality was at a high level, despite the lower mortality due to this cause than in other European countries.

At present, female life expectancy exceeds male life expectancy almost worldwide. However, numerous studies indicate that this disparity is gradually decreasing. In Poland, the gender gap in life expectancy peaked in 1991 when it amounted to 9.2 years. Since then, a narrowing of the gap has been observed, reaching 8 years in 2021. Decreasing differences in life expectancy between men and women in Poland were mainly the result of a reduction in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and a number of malignancies.Less attention has been paid to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) although it is the third leading cause of death worldwide. This paper includes an analysis of mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease COPD. The male excess mortality was calculated as the ratio of mortality rates in the male population scaled up to the corresponding rates in the female population using both crude and standardised detailed mortality rates. The Joinpoint model was used to determine time trends. It was shown that from 2008 to 2021, the excess mortality of men due to COPD in Poland decreased by 3.3% per year from 2.4 to 1.7 when using crude coefficients, while when standardised coefficients were applied, it decreased significantly by 3.9% per year from 3.8 to 2.4. The decrease in the excess mortality of men in Poland was due to a simultaneous decrease in mortality in the population in general; however, a greater decrease was observed in the male population. The mortality of men and women, and, at the same time, the excess mortality of men caused by COPD in Poland decreased faster in the period studied than in other European countries.