Background: The accurate assessment of individual risk can be of great value to guiding and facilitating the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, prediction models in common use were formulated primarily in white populations. The China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China) is aimed at developing and validating 10-year risk prediction equations for ASCVD from 4 contemporary Chinese cohorts. Methods: Two prospective studies followed up together with a unified protocol were used as the derivation cohort to develop 10-year ASCVD risk equations in 21 320 Chinese participants. The external validation was evaluated in 2 independent Chinese cohorts with 14 123 and 70 838 participants. Furthermore, model performance was compared with the Pooled Cohort Equations reported in the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline. Results: Over 12 years of follow-up in the derivation cohort with 21 320 Chinese participants, 1048 subjects developed a first ASCVD event. Sex-specific equations had C statistics of 0.794 (95% confidence interval, 0.775–0.814) for men and 0.811 (95% confidence interval, 0.787–0.835) for women. The predicted rates were similar to the observed rates, as indicated by a calibration χ ² of 13.1 for men ( P =0.16) and 12.8 for women ( P =0.17). Good internal and external validations of our equations were achieved in subsequent analyses. Compared with the Chinese equations, the Pooled Cohort Equations had lower C statistics and much higher calibration χ ² values in men. Conclusions: Our project developed effective tools with good performance for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction among a Chinese population that will help to improve the primary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease.

Objective: To study the effect of long term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter of diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM_2.5) on the incidence of total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke among Chinese adults.Design: Population based prospective cohort study.Setting: Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China (China-PAR) project carried out in 15 provinces across China.Participants: 117 575 Chinese men and women without stroke at baseline in the China-PAR project.Main outcome measures: Incidence of total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke.Results: The long term average PM_2.5 level from 2000 to 2015 at participants’ residential addresses was 64.9 μg/m³, ranging from 31.2 μg/m³ to 97.0 μg/m³. During 900 214 person years of follow-up, 3540 cases of incident stroke were identified, of which 63.0% (n=2230) were ischemic and 27.5% (n=973) were hemorrhagic. Compared with the first quarter of exposure to PM_2.5 (78.2 μg/m³) had an increased risk of incident stroke (hazard ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.34 to 1.74), ischemic stroke (1.82, 1.55 to 2.14), and hemorrhagic stroke (1.50, 1.16 to 1.93). For each increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM_2.5 concentration, the increased risks of incident stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke were 13% (1.13, 1.09 to 1.17), 20% (1.20, 1.15 to 1.25), and 12% (1.12, 1.05 to 1.20), respectively. Almost linear exposure-response relations between long term exposure to PM_2.5 and incident stroke, overall and by its subtypes, were observed.Conclusions: This study provides evidence from China that long term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 at relatively high concentrations is positively associated with incident stroke and its major subtypes. These findings are meaningful for both environmental and health policy development related to air pollution and stroke prevention, not only in China, but also in other low and middle income countries.

Hypertension is a common disorder and the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease and premature deaths worldwide. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in the European population have identified multiple chromosomal regions associated with blood pressure, and the identified loci altogether explain only a small fraction of the variance for blood pressure. The differences in environmental exposures and genetic background between Chinese and European populations might suggest potential different pathways of blood pressure regulation. To identify novel genetic variants affecting blood pressure variation, we conducted a meta-analysis of GWASs of blood pressure and hypertension in 11 816 subjects followed by replication studies including 69 146 additional individuals. We identified genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10⁻⁸) associations with blood pressure, which included variants at three new loci (CACNA1D, CYP21A2, and MED13L) and a newly discovered variant near SLC4A7. We also replicated 14 previously reported loci, 8 (CASZ1, MOV10, FGF5, CYP17A1, SOX6, ATP2B1, ALDH2, and JAG1) at genome-wide significance, and 6 (FIGN, ULK4, GUCY1A3, HFE, TBX3-TBX5, and TBX3) at a suggestive level of P = 1.81 × 10⁻³ to 5.16 × 10⁻⁸. These findings provide new mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and potential targets for treatments.

Aims: To construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) and comprehensively evaluate its potential in clinical utility for primary prevention in Chinese populations. Methods and results: Using meta-analytic approach and large genome-wide association results for CAD and CAD-related traits in East Asians, a PRS comprising 540 genetic variants was developed in a training set of 2800 patients with CAD and 2055 controls, and was further assessed for risk stratification for CAD integrating with the guideline-recommended clinical risk score in large prospective cohorts comprising 41 271 individuals. During a mean follow-up of 13.0 years, 1303 incident CAD cases were identified. Individuals with high PRS (the highest 20%) had about three-fold higher risk of CAD than the lowest 20% (hazard ratio 2.91, 95% confidence interval 2.43–3.49), with the lifetime risk of 15.9 and 5.8%, respectively. The addition of PRS to the clinical risk score yielded a modest yet significant improvement in C-statistic (1%) and net reclassification improvement (3.5%). We observed significant gradients in both 10-year and lifetime risk of CAD according to the PRS within each clinical risk strata. Particularly, when integrating high PRS, intermediate clinical risk individuals with uncertain clinical decision for intervention would reach the risk levels (10-year of 4.6 vs. 4.8%, lifetime of 17.9 vs. 16.6%) of high clinical risk individuals with intermediate (20–80%) PRS. Conclusion: The PRS could stratify individuals into different trajectories of CAD risk, and further refine risk stratification for CAD within each clinical risk strata, demonstrating a great potential to identify high-risk individuals for targeted intervention in clinical utility.