In new epidemics after the host shift, the pathogens may experience accelerated evolution driven by novel selective pressures. When the accelerated evolution enters a positive feedback loop with the expanding epidemics, the pathogen’s runaway evolution may be triggered. To test this possibility in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we analyze the extensive databases and identify five major waves of strains, one replacing the previous one in 2020–2021. The mutations differ entirely between waves and the number of mutations continues to increase, from 3-4 to 21-31. The latest wave in the fall of 2021 is the Delta strain which accrues 31 new mutations to become highly prevalent. Interestingly, these new mutations in Delta strain emerge in multiple stages with each stage driven by 6–12 coding mutations that form a fitness group. In short, the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from the oldest to the youngest wave, and from the earlier to the later stages of the Delta wave, is a process of acceleration with more and more mutations. The global increase in the viral population size (M(t), at time t) and the mutation accumulation (R(t)) may have indeed triggered the runaway evolution in late 2020, leading to the highly evolved Alpha and then Delta strain. To suppress the pandemic, it is crucial to break the positive feedback loop between M(t) and R(t), neither of which has yet to be effectively dampened by late 2021. New waves after Delta, hence, should not be surprising.

In the absence of both positive and negative selections, coding sequences evolve at a neutral rate (R = 1). Such a high genomic rate is generally not achievable due to the prevalence of negative selection against codon substitutions. Remarkably, somatic evolution exhibits the seemingly neutral rate R ∼ 1 across normal and cancerous tissues. Nevertheless, R ∼ 1 may also mean that positive and negative selections are both strong, but equal in intensity. We refer to this regime as quasi-neutral. Indeed, individual genes in cancer cells often evolve at a much higher, or lower, rate than R ∼ 1. Here, we show that 1) quasi-neutrality is much more likely when populations are small (N < 50); 2) stem-cell populations in single normal tissue niches, from which tumors likely emerge, have a small N (usually <50) but selection at this stage is measurable and strong; 3) when N dips below 50, selection efficacy decreases precipitously; and 4) notably, N is smaller in the stem-cell niche of the small intestine than in the colon. Hence, the ∼70-fold higher rate of phenotypic evolution (observed as cancer risk) in the latter can be explained by the greater efficacy of selection, which then leads to the fixation of more advantageous and fewer deleterious mutations in colon cancers. In conclusion, quasi-neutral evolution sheds a new light on a general evolutionary principle that helps to explain aspects of cancer evolution.

Despite the concern of within-tumor genetic diversity, this diversity is in fact limited by the kinship among cells in the tumor. Indeed, genomic studies have amply supported the ‘Nowell dogma’ whereby cells of the same tumor descend from a single progenitor cell. In parallel, genomic data also suggest that the diversity could be >10-fold larger if tumor cells are of multiple origins. We develop an evolutionary hypothesis that a single tumor may often harbor multiple cell clones of independent origins, but only one would be large enough to be detected. To test the hypothesis, we search for independent tumors within a larger one (or tumors-in-tumor). Very high density sampling was done on two cases of colon tumors. Case 1 indeed has 13 independent clones of disparate sizes, many having heavy mutation burdens and potentially highly tumorigenic. In Case 2, despite a very intensive search, only two small independent clones could be found. The two cases show very similar movements and metastasis of the dominant clone. Cells initially move actively in the expanding tumor but become nearly immobile in late stages. In conclusion, tumors-in-tumor are plausible but could be very demanding to find. Despite their small sizes, they can enhance the within-tumor diversity by orders of magnitude. Such increases may contribute to the missing genetic diversity associated with the resistance to cancer therapy.

Recent studies have increasingly pointed to microRNAs (miRNAs) as the agent of GRN (gene regulatory network) stabilization as well as developmental canalization against constant but small environmental perturbations. To analyze mild perturbations, we construct a Dicer-1 knockdown line (dcr-1 KD) in Drosophila that modestly reduces all miRNAs by, on average, ∼ 20%. The defining characteristic of stabilizers is that, when their capacity is compromised, GRNs do not change their short-term behaviors. Indeed, even with such broad reductions across all miRNAs, the changes in the transcriptome are very modest during development in stable environment. By comparison, broad knock-downs of other regulatory genes (esp. transcription factors) by the same method should lead to drastic changes in the GRNs. The consequence of de-stabilization may thus be in long-term development as postulated by the theory of canalization. Flies with modest miRNA reductions may gradually deviate from the developmental norm, resulting in late-stage failures such as shortened longevity. In the optimal culture condition, the survival to adulthood is indeed normal in the dcr-1 KD line but, importantly, adult longevity is reduced by ∼ 90%. When flies are stressed by high temperature, dcr-1 KD induces lethality earlier in late pupation and, as the perturbations are shifted earlier, the affected stages are shifted correspondingly. Hence, in late stages of development with deviations piling up, GRN would be increasingly in need of stabilization. In conclusion, miRNAs appear to be a solution to weak but constant environmental perturbations.

After cells divide, the new cells have to synthesize all the necessary cellular components in time for the next division. There is a lower bound of time required for cells to double their contents. For mammalian cells, this lower bound may be around 20 hours, as artificial selection for faster-dividing cells has not pushed cell lines to go below this ‘barrier’ in doubling time. The occasional exceptions are those that appear to ‘prove the rule’. For example, yeast cells can divide once every 1.5 hours [ 1, 2], and the fastest rate of cell divisions in metazoans may be that of the embryonic cells of Drosophila, at 5 minutes per cycle [ 3]. Thus, at least for eukaryotic cells, the rate-limiting step is not the replication of DNA.

It is generally accepted that the absence of recombination reduces the efficacy of natural selection for, or against, mutations. A special case is Muller’s Ratchet (MR) whereby non-recombining genomes experience irreversible fitness decline due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations. MR has been a main hypothesis for sexual reproduction as well as many other biological phenomena. We now ask whether the fitness decline can indeed be stopped if an asexual population turns sexual to become recombining. The possible fitness decline under recombination is referred to as Ohta’s Ratchet (OR). In comparison, MR is more effective in driving fitness reduction than OR, but only in a restricted parameter space of mutation rate, population size and selection. Outside of this space, the two ratchets are equally effective or, alternatively, neither is sufficiently powerful. Furthermore, beneficial mutations can affect the population fitness, which may diverge between the two ratchets, but only in a small parameter space. Since recombination plays a limited role in driving fitness decline, the operation of MR could be far less common in nature than believed. A companion report (see Supplement) surveying the biological phenomena attributed to MR indeed suggests the alternative explanations to be generally more compelling.