New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance. Despite decades of control efforts, malaria remains a major public health concern in Brazil. A large proportion of the 243,000 cases diagnosed per year originate from areas of recent colonization in the densely forested Amazon Basin. This population-based longitudinal study addresses the epidemiology of malaria during the early stages of colonization of frontier settlements in Remansinho area, rural Amazonia. We documented a major decline in the prevalence of P. vivax infection, from 23.8% to 3.0%, between March–April 2010 and April–May 2013. Up to 73.1% of the P. vivax infections were missed by microscopy as malaria transmission declined and most (56.6%) of these infections caused no clinical signs or symptoms. Few (17.0%) asymptomatic P. vivax infections that were left untreated eventually progressed to clinical disease, becoming detectable by routine malaria surveillance, over 6 weeks of follow-up. Moreover, nearly all P. vivax infections that were undetected by microscopy had gametocytes, the parasite's blood stages responsible for malaria transmission to mosquito vectors, detected by molecular methods. These findings indicate that apparently healthy carriers of low-density parasitemias, who are often missed by conventional microscopy, contribute significantly to ongoing P. vivax transmission and may further complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar endemic settings.

Alleles subject to strong, recent positive selection will be swept toward fixation together with contiguous sections of the genome. Whether the genomic signatures of such selection will be readily detectable in outbred wild populations is unclear. In this study, we employ haplotype diversity analysis to examine evidence for selective sweeps around knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations associated with resistance to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and pyrethroid insecticides in the mosquito Anopheles gambiae. Both kdr mutations have significantly lower haplotype diversity than the wild-type (nonresistant) allele, with kdr L1014F showing the most pronounced footprint of selection. We complement these data with a time series of collections showing that the L1014F allele has increased in frequency from 0.05 to 0.54 in 5 years, consistent with a maximum likelihood-fitted selection coefficient of 0.16 and a dominance coefficient of 0.25. Our data show that strong, recent positive selective events, such as those caused by insecticide resistance, can be identified in wild insect populations.

Current strategies to control mosquito-transmitted infections use insecticides targeted at various stages of the mosquito life-cycle. Control is increasingly compromised by the evolution of insecticide resistance but there is little quantitative understanding of its impact on control effectiveness. We developed a computational approach that incorporates the stage-structured mosquito life-cycle and allows tracking of insecticide resistant genotypes. This approach makes it possible to simultaneously investigate: (i) the population dynamics of mosquitoes throughout their whole life-cycle; (ii) the impact of common vector control interventions on disease transmission; (iii) how these interventions drive the spread of insecticide resistance; and (iv) the impact of resistance once it has arisen and, in particular, whether it is sufficient for malaria transmission to resume. The model consists of a system of difference equations that tracks the immature (eggs, larvae and pupae) and adult stages, for males and females separately, and incorporates density-dependent regulation of mosquito larvae in breeding sites. We determined a threshold level of mosquitoes below which transmission of malaria is interrupted. It is based on a classic Ross-Macdonald derivation of the malaria basic reproductive number (R0) and may be used to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies in terms of whether they are likely to interrupt disease transmission. We simulated different scenarios of insecticide deployment by changing key parameters in the model to explore the comparative impact of insecticide treated nets, indoor residual spraying and larvicides. Our simulated results suggest that relatively low degrees of resistance (in terms of reduced mortality following insecticide contact) can induce failure of interventions, and the rate of spread of resistance is faster when insecticides target the larval stages. The optimal disease control strategy depends on vector species demography and local environmental conditions but, in our illustrative parametrisation, targeting larval stages achieved the greatest reduction of the adult population, followed by targeting of non-host-seeking females, as provided by indoor residual spraying. Our approach is designed to be flexible and easily generalizable to many scenarios using different calibrations and to diseases other than malaria.

SUMMARY: To examine how community-level genetic diversity of the malaria parasitePlasmodium vivaxvaries across time and space, we investigated the dynamics of parasite polymorphisms during the early phases of occupation of a frontier settlement in the Amazon Basin of Brazil. Microsatellite characterization of 84 isolates ofP. vivaxsampled over 3 years revealed a moderate-to-high genetic diversity (mean expected heterozygosity, 0·699), with a large proportion (78·5%) of multiple-clone infections (MCI), but also a strong multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) consistent with rare outcrossing. Little temporal and no spatial clustering was observed in the distribution of parasite haplotypes. A single microsatellite haplotype was shared by 3 parasites collected during an outbreak; all other 81 haplotypes were recovered only once. The lowest parasite diversity, with the smallest proportion of MCI and the strongest LD, was observed at the time of the outbreak, providing a clear example of epidemic population structure in a human pathogen. Population genetic parameters returned to pre-outbreak values during last 2 years of study, despite the concomitant decline in malaria incidence. We suggest that parasite genotyping can be useful for tracking the spread of new parasite strains associated with outbreaks in areas approaching malaria elimination.

Insecticide resistance has the potential to compromise the enormous effort put into the control of dengue and malaria vector populations. It is therefore important to quantify the amount of selection acting on resistance alleles, their contributions to fitness in heterozygotes (dominance) and their initial frequencies, as a means to predict the rate of spread of resistance in natural populations. We investigate practical problems of obtaining such estimates, with particular emphasis on Mexican populations of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti. Selection and dominance coefficients can be estimated by fitting genetic models to field data using maximum likelihood (ML) methodology. This methodology, although widely used, makes many assumptions so we investigated how well such models perform when data are sparse or when spatial and temporal heterogeneity occur. As expected, ML methodologies reliably estimated selection and dominance coefficients under idealised conditions but it was difficult to recover the true values when datasets were sparse during the time that resistance alleles increased in frequency, or when spatial and temporal heterogeneity occurred. We analysed published data on pyrethroid resistance in Mexico that consists of the frequency of a Ile1,016 mutation. The estimates for selection coefficient and initial allele frequency on the field dataset were in the expected range, dominance coefficient points to incomplete dominance as observed in the laboratory, although these estimates are accompanied by strong caveats about possible impact of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in selection. The emergence and spread of insecticide resistance compromise the control of mosquito borne diseases such as dengue or malaria, which are responsible for millions of deaths every year in tropical and subtropical areas. There are currently no easily implemented methodologies to quantify the strength of selection for resistance occurring in nature. Using field data from Mexico on the frequency of an allele mutation conferring resistance in the mosquito Aedes aegypti we use maximum likelihood (ML) to estimate the selection and dominance coefficients driving the evolution of resistance. We explored the impact of poor data collection, data that combine information from different locations and the consequences of selection and dominance coefficients varying over the sampling time period. The ML method can accurately estimate these parameters with simulated data in ideal sampling situations but it is difficult to recover true values when spatial and temporal heterogeneity occurs. The analysis highlighted factors relevant to field work such as the need for frequent surveillance in discrete sentinel sites.

Insecticides are an effective and practical tool for reducing malaria transmission but the development of resistance to the insecticides can potentially compromise controls efforts. In this study a mathematical model was developed to explore the effects on mosquito populations of spatial heterogeneous deployment of insecticides. This model was used to identify important parameters in the evolution of insecticide resistance and to examine the contribution of new generation long-lasting insecticidal bed nets, that incorporate a chemical synergist on the roof panel, in delaying insecticide resistance.