Along with being a dynamic process that affects large areas, desertification is also one of the most serious problems in many countries. The effects of this phenomenon threaten the sustainability of natural resources, namely water resources, agricultural production and major basic infrastructure, specifically roads and habitations. Several factors exacerbate this phenomenon such as the climate dryness, the geological and morphological characteristics of the terrain, the irrational use of space, population growth and the over-exploitation of vegetation and water resources. This work aims to evaluate the desertification index in the Oued-El-Maleh watershed, through the integration of key factors involved in the MEDALUS model (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use) within a GIS. The model includes among its indexes: climate, vegetation, soil and management. Each index was obtained by the combination of sub-indexes. All the factors, measured and integrated into a geographic information system, enabled us to spatialize, on a synthetic map, the degree of the desertification effect throughout the watershed. This map is a managing tool available for decision-making regarding the selection of priority areas in the fight against desertification. High sensitivity to desertification class represents only 35% of the watershed. This class is concentrated in the north of the study area that corresponds to plains and low altitude. This could be explained by the dominance of agro-pastoral activity and the presence of a big population pressure.

Le changement climatique constitue un grand défi à relever par les politiques publiques et les gestionnaires des espaces naturels. La compréhension de ses impacts sur les écosystèmes forestiers constitue un préalable nécessaire à toute réflexion visant leur conservation et le maintien des services écosystémiques qu’ils offrent. Cette étude s’est intéressée à la modélisation de la distribution potentielle de Cedrus atlantica Manetti, à l’identification des variables environnementales conditionnant sa distribution, et à la définition de l’étendue géographique des aires qui sont favorables à sa présence sous les conditions climatiques passées, actuelles et futures. Ce travail a été réalisé en se basant sur le principe d’entropie maximale. La cartographie des aires potentielles révèle la sensibilité du cèdre aux changements climatiques passés et suggère une grande étendue (quadruple de la surface d’occurrence actuelle de l’espèce) des zones bioclimatiquement adaptées au développement de cette espèce sous les conditions climatiques actuelles. Cependant, les distributions potentielles futures semblent être dépendantes de certains sites spécifiques et risquent d’être affectées négativement par le climat futur. Ces résultats mettent en évidence l’ampleur des régressions projetées des superficies du cèdre dans le futur, ce qui pourrait impacter considérablement les fonctions et services de cet écosystème et augmenter les risques d’extinction locale. Ils constituent par ailleurs un bon outil de prise de décision pour les gestionnaires du territoire quant à la conservation de ce précieux écosystème forestier, afin d’éviter toute extinction de ce foyer de biodiversité marocaine.

Unmanaged livestock grazing is the greatest threat to the health and sustainability of forest rangelands in Morocco. Historically, communities have developed ingenious traditional systems in order to regulate natural resource uses. However, currently most of these principles have been undermined and have led to open access of a common pool resource. To achieve viable solutions to unmanaged livestock grazing in forestlands, local community involvement was introduced in Moroccan forestry early on. The main objective of this study was to show the importance of an original mechanism called compensation on forest area closed to grazing, carried out by the Forestry Department to involve communities that have the right of use in the restoration of forest rangeland ecosystems. It also aims to assess the mechanism’s technical and socioeconomic impacts. Analysis of the process of community participation in the case of Moroccan forest management revealed that it was perceived and implemented in different ways, and considered either as an end in itself or (rarely) as a means to an end. Forest managers and use-rights holders appreciate the mechanism of compensation for forest areas closed to grazing. Since the implementation of this program, the number of grazing association members has increased. This trend has been associated with a positive impact on the reduction in the number of offences and on improving reforestation success rates. In addition, remote sensing showed a positive trend in the relative density and the evolution of the health of vegetation in the areas covered by this mechanism. This program helped to develop consensus in forest ecosystem restoration that will help managers to break the vicious cycle of unmanaged grazing, and promote a new collective stewardship of this precious land. As a result of this success, this program should be replicated and valued. It should be presented in the future as a tool for natural resource conservation with unintended human capital development benefits.

Climate change, which is expected to continue in the future, is increasingly becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity and human society. Understanding its impacts on forest ecosystems is essential for undertaking long-term management and conservation strategies. This study was focused on modeling the potential distribution of Quercus suber in the Maamora Forest, the world’s largest lowland cork oak forest, under actual and future climate conditions and identifying the environmental factors associated with this distribution. Maximum Entropy approach was used to train a Species Distribution Model and future predictions were based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCPs). The results showed that the trained model was highly reliable and reflected the actual and future distributions of Maamora’s cork oak. It showed that the precipitation of the coldest and wettest quarter and the annual temperature range are the environmental factors that provide the most useful information for Q. suber distribution in the study area. The computed results of cork oak’s habitat suitability showed that predicted suitable areas are site-specific and seem to be highly dependent on climate change. The predicted changes are significant and expected to vary (decline of habitat suitability) in the future under the different emissions pathways. It indicates that climate change may reduce the suitable area for Q. suber under all the climate scenarios and the severity of projected impacts is closely linked to the magnitude of the climate change. The percent variation in habitat suitability indicates negative values for all the scenarios, ranging –23% to –100%. These regressions are projected to be more important under pessimist scenario RCP8.5. Given these results, we recommend including the future climate scenarios in the existing management strategies and highlight the usefulness of the produced predictive suitability maps under actual and future climate for the protection of this sensitive forest and its key species – cork oak, as well as for other forest species.