The COVID-19 pandemic has forced policy makers to decree urgent confinements to stop a rapid and massive contagion. However, after that stage, societies are being forced to find an equilibrium between the need to reduce contagion rates and the need to reopen their economies. The experience hitherto lived has provided data on the evolution of the pandemic, in particular the population dynamics as a result of the public health measures enacted. This allows the formulation of forecasting mathematical models to anticipate the consequences of political decisions. Here we propose a model to do so and apply it to the case of Portugal. With a mathematical deterministic model, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we fit the real evolution of COVID-19 in this country. After identification of the population readiness to follow social restrictions, by analyzing the social media, we incorporate this effect in a version of the model that allow us to check different scenarios. This is realized by considering a Monte Carlo discrete version of the previous model coupled via a complex network. Then, we apply optimal control theory to maximize the number of people returning to “normal life” and minimizing the number of active infected individuals with minimal economical costs while warranting a low level of hospitalizations. This work allows testing various scenarios of pandemic management (closure of sectors of the economy, partial/total compliance with protection measures by citizens, number of beds in intensive care units, etc.), ensuring the responsiveness of the health system, thus being a public health decision support tool.
We study, both theoretically and experimentally, the dynamical response of Turing patterns to a spatiotemporal forcing in the form of a traveling-wave modulation of a control parameter. We show that from strictly spatial resonance, it is possible to induce new, generic dynamical behaviors, including temporally modulated traveling waves and localized traveling solitonlike solutions. The latter make contact with the soliton solutions of Coullet [Phys. Rev. Lett. 56, 724 (1986)] and generalize them. The stability diagram for the different propagating modes in the Lengyel-Epstein model is determined numerically. Direct observations of the predicted solutions in experiments carried out with light modulations in the photosensitive chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction are also reported.
Spatially uniform illumination of Turing structures in the chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction-diffusion system affects the pattern characteristics and, at larger intensities, eliminates them. Periodic illumination is more effective than constant illumination with the same average light intensity. We observe the fastest suppression of pattern at a frequency of illumination equal to the frequency of autonomous oscillations in the corresponding well-stirred system. Numerical simulations demonstrate a similar resonant behavior of periodically illuminated Turing structures.
18 August 1999 in Journal of the American Chemical Society
We report the experimental observation of Richardson dispersion and a double cascade in a thin horizontal fluid flow induced by Faraday waves. The energy spectra and the mean spectral energy flux obtained from particle image velocimetry data suggest an inverse energy cascade with Kolmogorov type scaling Ek$\propto${}k$\gamma${}, $\gamma${}$\approx${}-5/3 and an Ek$\propto${}k$\gamma${}, $\gamma${}$\approx${}-3 enstrophy cascade. Particle transport is studied analyzing absolute and relative dispersion as well as the finite size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE) via the direct tracking of real particles and numerical advection of virtual particles. Richardson dispersion with ⟨$\Delta${}R2(t)⟩$\propto${}t3 is observed and is also reflected in the slopes of the FSLE ($\Lambda${}$\propto${}$\Delta${}R-2/3) for virtual and real particles.
1 February 1995 in International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos