The frequent occurrence and spread of wildfires pose a serious threat to the ecological environment and urban development. Therefore, assessing regional wildfire susceptibility is crucial for the early prevention of wildfires and formulation of disaster management decisions. However, current research on wildfire susceptibility primarily focuses on improving the accuracy of models, while lacking in-depth study of the causes and mechanisms of wildfires, as well as the impact and losses they cause to the ecological environment and urban development. This situation not only increases the uncertainty of model predictions but also greatly reduces the specificity and practical significance of the models. We propose a comprehensive evaluation framework to analyze the spatial distribution of wildfire susceptibility and the effects of influencing factors, while assessing the risks of wildfire damage to the local ecological environment and urban development. In this study, we used wildfire information from the period 2013–2022 and data from 17 susceptibility factors in the city of Guilin as the basis, and utilized eight machine learning algorithms, namely logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), to assess wildfire susceptibility. By evaluating multiple indicators, we obtained the optimal model and used the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method to explain the effects of the factors and the decision-making mechanism of the model. In addition, we collected and calculated corresponding indicators, with the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) representing ecological vulnerability and the Night-Time Lights Index (NTLI) representing urban development vulnerability. The coupling results of the two represent the comprehensive vulnerability of the ecology and city. Finally, by integrating wildfire susceptibility and vulnerability information, we assessed the risk of wildfire disasters in Guilin to reveal the overall distribution characteristics of wildfire disaster risk in Guilin. The results show that the AUC values of the eight models range from 0.809 to 0.927, with accuracy values ranging from 0.735 to 0.863 and RMSE values ranging from 0.327 to 0.423. Taking into account all the performance indicators, the XGBoost model provides the best results, with AUC, accuracy, and RMSE values of 0.927, 0.863, and 0.327, respectively. This indicates that the XGBoost model has the best predictive performance. The high-susceptibility areas are located in the central, northeast, south, and southwest regions of the study area. The factors of temperature, soil type, land use, distance to roads, and slope have the most significant impact on wildfire susceptibility. Based on the results of the ecological vulnerability and urban development vulnerability assessments, potential wildfire risk areas can be identified and assessed comprehensively and reasonably. The research results of this article not only can improve the specificity and practical significance of wildfire prediction models but also provide important reference for the prevention and response of wildfires.

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data, derived from optical images, play a crucial role for crop mapping and growth monitoring. Nevertheless, optical images frequently exhibit spatial and temporal discontinuities due to cloudy and rainy weather conditions. Existing algorithms for reconstructing NDVI time series using multi-source remote sensing data still face several challenges. In this study, we proposed a novel method, an enhanced gap-filling and Whittaker smoothing (EGF-WS), to reconstruct NDVI time series (EGF-NDVI) using Google Earth Engine. In EGF-WS, NDVI calculated from MODIS, Landsat-8, and Sentinel-2 satellites were combined to generate high-resolution and continuous NDVI time series data. The MODIS NDVI was employed as reference data to fill missing pixels in the Sentinel–Landsat NDVI (SL-NDVI) using the gap-filling method. Subsequently, the filled NDVI was smoothed using a Whittaker smoothing filter to reduce residual noise in the SL-NDVI time series. With reference to the all-round performance assessment (APA) metrics, the performance of EGF-WS was compared with the conventional gap-filling and Savitzky–Golay filter approach (GF-SG) in Fusui County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The experimental results have demonstrated that the EGF-WS can capture more accurate spatial details compared with GF-SG. Moreover, EGF-NDVI of Fusui County exhibited a low root mean square error (RMSE) and a high coefficient of determination (R²). In conclusion, EGF-WS holds significant promise in providing NDVI time series images with a spatial resolution of 10 m and a temporal resolution of 8 days, thereby benefiting crop mapping, land use change monitoring, and various ecosystems, among other applications.