Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3–11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030–2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to −4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (∼10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

Species composition and biomass are two important indicators in assessing the effects of restoration measures of degraded grasslands. In this paper, we present a field study on the temporal changes in plant community characteristics, species diversity and biomass production in a degraded temperate meadow steppe in response to an enclosure measure in Hulunbuir in Northern China. Our results showed that the plant community responded positively to the fence enclosure in terms of vegetation coverage, height, above- and belowground biomass. A year-to-year increase in aboveground biomass was observed, and this increase plateaued at the ninth year of the enclosure. Our results also showed that the existing dominant and foundation species gained predominance against other species. The sum of the biomass of these two species was more than doubled after the ninth year of the enclosure. However, belowground biomass only briefly increased until the fifth year of the enclosure and then decreased until the end of the experimental period. Plant diversity, evenness, and richness indices showed similar trends to that of belowground biomass. Overall, we found that the degraded temperate meadow steppe responded significantly positively to the enclosure treatment, but an optimal condition was only reached after approximately 5–7 years of continuous protection, providing a solid use case for grassland conservation and management at regional scales.