The OpenIFS programme of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) maintains a version of the ECMWF forecast model (IFS; Integrated Forecasting System) for use in education and research at universities, national meteorological services and other institutes. The OpenIFS model can be run on high-performance computing systems, desktop or laptop computers to produce weather forecasts in a similar way to the operational forecasts at ECMWF. Application of OpenIFS as a training tool is wide ranging. At several universities, masters students are taught modelling aspects via sensitivity studies, such as numerical stability, impact of spatial resolution and physical parameterisation settings on the forecast quality. The OpenIFS single column model is used to study a subset of physical processes in the atmosphere. Participants of the OpenIFS user workshops are trained through selected weather events on interpretation of different forecasts, for example ensemble forecasts, probabilistic information, seasonal forecasts. The OpenIFS user meetings and training events demonstrate advanced and easy-to-use graphical tools and training technologies. Metview is developed to analyse, visualise and evaluate the forecast outputs. OpenIFS and Metview “virtual machines” relieve the tutors from the difficulties often found in installing this software on the local computing environment. They provide data, applications and documents in a package tested in-house and deployed easily to another site. A further step on virtualisation is utilising cloud servers, ensuring the computational resources demanded by model runs are available in the cloud space. This paper shows the education activity in the OpenIFS programme with some examples.
The Hungarian Meteorological Service has been conducting climate model simulations in order to assess the effects of climate change in the Carpathian Basin and provide data for impact research and stakeholders. Two regional climate models are used: ALADIN-Climate 5.2 (hereafter ALADIN5.2) and REMO2015. They were tested for the past when the lateral boundary conditions were taken from two sources. ERA-Interim reanalysis was used in the evaluation experiment, while the CNRM-CM5 and the MPI-ESM-LR global climate models (GCM) provided the forcings in the control experiments. The model outputs were compared with the CarpatClim-HU observational dataset for the 1981–2000 period. Future projections were carried out with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the results were analyzed for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The evaluation of the results focused mainly on climate indices calculated from temperature and precipitation. The validation results showed that REMO2015 assessed the mean temperature well, but the indices based on the minimum and maximum temperature had a significant bias which has to be taken into account when interpreting future changes. The model overestimated the minimum temperature in summer, which might affect the number of tropical nights. Moreover, the maximum temperature was underestimated; thus, the derived indices, such as the occurrence of summer days and hot days, were profoundly underestimated. In comparison, ALADIN5.2 had smaller biases for the high temperature indices; moreover, the number of hot days and extremely cold days was overestimated. Taking future projections into account, we can clearly see that the results of REMO2015 show a much more moderate increase in temperature than ALADIN5.2. The reasons are yet unknown and require further investigation. In spring and summer, the number of wet days was slightly overestimated, while the number of heavy precipitation days was marginally underestimated. The projections showed the highest uncertainty in the changes in mean summer precipitation and other precipitation indices. Although the REMO2015 model assessed a decrease in precipitation, ALADIN5.2 projected an increase in precipitation with a similar magnitude.
At the Hungarian Meteorological Service, two experiments were accomplished with the REMO5.0 regional climate model: (1) a simulation of a past period from 1961 to 2000, driven by the ECMWF ERA40 re-analysis data, and (2) a transient run from 1951 to 2100 driven by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global coupled atmosphere-ocean model using SRES A1B forcing. The integration domain covers continental Europe with 25 km horizontal resolution in both experiments. Present article is dedicated to the investigation of the simulation results for the past period. The results for 1961–1990 were compared on the one hand with observations, and on the other hand, with each other and the corresponding global fields in order to assess the impact of the different lateral boundary conditions on the results focusing on the area of our interest, i.e., Hungary. The evaluation indicated that the re-analysis driven experiment provides warm and in summer dry past climate over the Carpathian Basin, whereas lower temperature and higher precipitation values are obtained when the lateral boundary information is derived from a global climate model. Based on the validation, it is concluded that the temperature characteristics in the simulation-driven case outperformed the experiment forced by quasi-perfect (i.e., re-analysis) data, however, similar apparent conclusion cannot be drawn for precipitation. This paper is undertaking to give deeper insight into the details and possible reasons for these outcomes.