Objectives: Rwanda reported a stunting rate of 33% in 2020, decreasing from 38% in 2015; however, stunting remains an issue. Globally, child deaths from malnutrition stand at 45%. The best options for the early detection and treatment of stunting should be made a community policy priority, and health services remain an issue. Hence, this research aimed to develop a model for predicting stunting in Rwandan children.Methods: The Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2019-2020 was used as secondary data. Stratified 10-fold cross-validation was used, and different machine learning classifiers were trained to predict stunting status. The prediction models were compared using different metrics, and the best model was chosen.Results: The best model was developed with the gradient boosting classifier algorithm, with a training accuracy of 80.49% based on the performance indicators of several models. Based on a confusion matrix, the test accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 were calculated, yielding the model’s ability to classify stunting cases correctly at 79.33%, identify stunted children accurately at 72.51%, and categorize non-stunted children correctly at 94.49%, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The model found that the mother’s height, television, the child’s age, province, mother’s education, birth weight, and childbirth size were the most important predictors of stunting status.Conclusions: Therefore, machine-learning techniques may be used in Rwanda to construct an accurate model that can detect the early stages of stunting and offer the best predictive attributes to help prevent and control stunting in under five Rwandan children.

This paper presents a mathematical model of glucose‐insulin dynamics which is specific for type 2 diabetic patients. The general modelling is obtained by simplification of a global compartmental model by John Thomas Sorensen. The model parameters are estimated using nonlinear optimization and data collected in Rwanda for type 2 diabetic patients. In order to identify and evaluate possible abnormalities of type 2 diabetic patients, the Sampling Importance Resampling (SIR) particle filtering algorithm is used and implemented through discretization of the developed mathematical model. This process is done by clamping insulin and glucose concentrations at around clinical trial values as proposed by Defronzo. Furthermore, for detecting potential abnormalities in type 2 diabetic patients, we compare our results with results obtained from a simulation of the mathematical model for healthy subjects. The proposed mathematical model allows further investigation of the dynamic behavior of glucose, insulin, glucagon, stored insulin, and labile insulin in different organs for type 2 diabetic patients.

Background Stunting is a serious public health concern in Rwanda, affecting around 33.3% of children under the age of five in 2020. Several examples of research have employed machine learning algorithms to predict stunting in Rwanda; however, no study used artificial neural networks (ANNs), despite their strong capacity to predict stunting. The purpose of this study was to predict stunting in Rwanda using ANNs and the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 2020. Methods We used a multilayer perceptron (MLP) architecture to train and test the ANN model on a subset of the DHS dataset. The input variables for the model included child, parental and socio-demographic’s characteristics. The output variable was a binary indicator of stunting status (stunted vs. not stunted). Results An overall accuracy of 72.0% on the test set was observed, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.84, indicating the model’s good performance. Several factors appear as important contributors to the probability of stunting among the negative value aspects. First and foremost, the mother’s height is important, as a lower height suggests an increased risk of stunting in children. Positive value characteristics, on the other hand, emphasie elements that reduce the likelihood of stunting. The timing of the initiation of breastfeeding stands out as a crucial factor, showing that early breastfeeding initiation has been linked with a decreased risk of stunting. Conclusions Our findings suggest that ANNs can be a useful tool for predicting stunting in Rwanda and identifying the most important associated factors for stunting. These insights can inform targeted interventions to reduce the burden of stunting in Rwanda and other low- and middle-income countries.

Mathematical modelling is of interest to study the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and models such as SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) have been considered. This article describes the development of a compartmental transmission network model - Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantine-Infectious-Infectious, undetected-Infectious, home-based care-Hospitalized-Vaccinated-Recovered-Dead - to simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 in order to account for specific measures put into place by the Government of Rwanda to prevent further spread of the disease. The compartments of this model are connected by parameters, some of which are known from the literature, and others are estimated from available data using the least squares method. For the stability of the model, equilibrium points were determined and the basic reproduction number R 0 was studied; R ₀ is an indicator for contagiousness. The model showed that secondary infections are generated from the exposed group, the asymptomatic group, the infected (symptomatic) group, the infected (undetected) group, the infected (home-based care) group and the hospitalized group. The formulated model was reliable and fit the data. Furthermore, the estimated R 0 of 2.16 shows that COVID-19 will persist without the application of control measures. This article presents results regarding predicted spread of COVID-19 in Rwanda.

In Rwanda, the prevalence of hypertension was 15.3% in 2015. At present, there are no accurate predictions of the prevalence of hypertension and its trend over time in Rwanda to assist decision makers in making plans for prevention and more effective interventions. This study used the Gibbs sampling method in combination with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to predict the prevalence of hypertension and its associated risk factors in Rwanda over a period of ten years. The data were from World Health Organization (WHO) reports. The findings showed that the prevalence of hypertension is estimated to reach 17.82% in 2025, with tobacco use, being overweight or obese, and other risk factors having a respective prevalence of 26.26%, 17.13%, 4.80%, and 33.99%, which shows the increase and, therefore, measures for prevention to be taken. Therefore, to prevent and reduce the prevalence of this disease, the government of Rwanda should take appropriate measures to promote a balanced diet and physical exercise.

In this paper, we focus on modelling the glucose-insulin system for the purpose of estimating glucagon, insulin, and glucose in the liver in the internal organs of the human body. A three-compartmental mathematical model is proposed. The model parameters are estimated using a nonlinear inverse optimization problem and data collected in Chad. In order to identify insulin and glucose in the liver for type 2 diabetic patients, the Sampling Importance Resampling (SIR) particle filtering algorithm is used and implemented through discretization of the developed mathematical model. The proposed mathematical model allows further investigation of the dynamic behavior of hepatic glucose, insulin, and glucagon in internal organs for type 2 diabetic patients. During periods of hyperglycemia (i.e., after meal ingestion), whereas insulin secretion is increased, glucagon secretion is reduced. The results are in agreement with empirical and clinical data and they are clinically consistent with physiological responses.