Background: Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as Zika, SARS, ncovid19 and Pertussis, pose a compelling challenge for epidemiologists due to their significant impact on global public health. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to better understand the spreading characteristics of these diseases and to decide on vaccination policies, human interaction controls, and other social measures to counter, mitigate or simply delay the spread of the infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the construction of mathematical models for these diseases and their solutions remain a challenging tasks due to the fact that little effort has been devoted to the definition of a general framework easily accessible even by researchers without advanced modelling and mathematical skills. Results: In this paper we describe a new general modeling framework to study epidemiological systems, whose novelties and strengths are: (1) the use of a graphical formalism to simplify the model creation phase; (2) the implementation of an R package providing a friendly interface to access the analysis techniques implemented in the framework; (3) a high level of portability and reproducibility granted by the containerization of all analysis techniques implemented in the framework; (4) a well-defined schema and related infrastructure to allow users to easily integrate their own analysis workflow in the framework. Then, the effectiveness of this framework is showed through a case of study in which we investigate the pertussis epidemiology in Italy. Conclusions: We propose a new general modeling framework for the analysis of epidemiological systems, which exploits Petri Net graphical formalism, R environment, and Docker containerization to derive a tool easily accessible by any researcher even without advanced mathematical and computational skills. Moreover, the framework was implemented following the guidelines defined by Reproducible Bioinformatics Project so it guarantees reproducible analysis and makes simple the developed of new user-defined workflows.

Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated inflammatory disease of the Central Nervous System (CNS) which damages the myelin sheath enveloping nerve cells thus causing severe physical disability in patients. Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) is one of the most common form of MS in adults and is characterized by a series of neurologic symptoms, followed by periods of remission. Recently, many treatments were proposed and studied to contrast the RRMS progression. Among these drugs, daclizumab (commercial name Zinbryta), an antibody tailored against the Interleukin-2 receptor of T cells, exhibited promising results, but its efficacy was accompanied by an increased frequency of serious adverse events. Manifested side effects consisted of infections, encephalitis, and liver damages. Therefore daclizumab has been withdrawn from the market worldwide. Another interesting case of RRMS regards its progression in pregnant women where a smaller incidence of relapses until the delivery has been observed. Results: In this paper we propose a new methodology for studying RRMS, which we implemented in GreatSPN, a state-of-the-art open-source suite for modelling and analyzing complex systems through the Petri Net (PN) formalism. This methodology exploits: (a) an extended Colored PN formalism to provide a compact graphical description of the system and to automatically derive a set of ODEs encoding the system dynamics and (b) the Latin Hypercube Sampling with PRCC index to calibrate ODE parameters for reproducing the real behaviours in healthy and MS subjects.To show the effectiveness of such methodology a model of RRMS has been constructed and studied. Two different scenarios of RRMS were thus considered. In the former scenario the effect of the daclizumab administration is investigated, while in the latter one RRMS was studied in pregnant women. Conclusions: We propose a new computational methodology to study RRMS disease. Moreover, we show that model generated and calibrated according to this methodology is able to reproduce the expected behaviours.

Background: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) represents nowadays in Europe the leading cause of non-traumatic disabilities in young adults, with more than 700,000 EU cases. Although huge strides have been made over the years, MS etiology remains partially unknown. Furthermore, the presence of various endogenous and exogenous factors can greatly influence the immune response of different individuals, making it difficult to study and understand the disease. This becomes more evident in a personalized-fashion when medical doctors have to choose the best therapy for patient well-being. In this optics, the use of stochastic models, capable of taking into consideration all the fluctuations due to unknown factors and individual variability, is highly advisable. Results: We propose a new model to study the immune response in relapsing remitting MS (RRMS), the most common form of MS that is characterized by alternate episodes of symptom exacerbation (relapses) with periods of disease stability (remission). In this new model, both the peripheral lymph node/blood vessel and the central nervous system are explicitly represented. The model was created and analysed using Epimod, our recently developed general framework for modeling complex biological systems. Then the effectiveness of our model was shown by modeling the complex immunological mechanisms characterizing RRMS during its course and under the DAC administration. Conclusions: Simulation results have proven the ability of the model to reproduce in silico the immune T cell balance characterizing RRMS course and the DAC effects. Furthermore, they confirmed the importance of a timely intervention on the disease course.

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), is a highly transmittable virus. Since the first person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Italy on February 21^st, 2020, the number of people infected with SARS-COV-2 increased rapidly, mainly in northern Italian regions, including Piedmont. A strict lockdown was imposed on March 21^st until May 4^th when a gradual relaxation of the restrictions started. In this context, computational models and computer simulations are one of the available research tools that epidemiologists can exploit to understand the spread of the diseases and to evaluate social measures to counteract, mitigate or delay the spread of the epidemic. Methods: This study presents an extended version of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SEIRS) model accounting for population age structure. The infectious population is divided into three sub-groups: (i) undetected infected individuals, (ii) quarantined infected individuals and (iii) hospitalized infected individuals. Moreover, the strength of the government restriction measures and the related population response to these are explicitly represented in the model. Results: The proposed model allows us to investigate different scenarios of the COVID-19 spread in Piedmont and the implementation of different infection-control measures and testing approaches. The results show that the implemented control measures have proven effective in containing the epidemic, mitigating the potential dangerous impact of a large proportion of undetected cases. We also forecast the optimal combination of individual-level measures and community surveillance to contain the new wave of COVID-19 spread after the re-opening work and social activities. Conclusions: Our model is an effective tool useful to investigate different scenarios and to inform policy makers about the potential impact of different control strategies. This will be crucial in the upcoming months, when very critical decisions about easing control measures will need to be taken.

Motivation: The transition from evaluating a single time point to examining the entire dynamic evolution of a system is possible only in the presence of the proper framework. The strong variability of dynamic evolution makes the definition of an explanatory procedure for data fitting and clustering challenging. Results: We developed CONNECTOR, a data-driven framework able to analyze and inspect longitudinal data in a straightforward and revealing way. When used to analyze tumor growth kinetics over time in 1599 patient-derived xenograft growth curves from ovarian and colorectal cancers, CONNECTOR allowed the aggregation of time-series data through an unsupervised approach in informative clusters. We give a new perspective of mechanism interpretation, specifically, we define novel model aggregations and we identify unanticipated molecular associations with response to clinically approved therapies. Availability and implementation: CONNECTOR is freely available under GNU GPL license at https://qbioturin.github.io/connector and https://doi.org/10.17504/protocols.io.8epv56e74g1b/v1.