Considerable savings in winter road maintenance and accident costs can be achieved with accurate road weather forecasts. Forecasting road surface freezing time accurately enables the timely start of salting and thus ensures safety on roads. The optimal use of road weather observations is essential for the accuracy of short‐range road condition forecasts. Road weather models incorporate radiation and other atmospheric variables from numerical weather prediction models. In this study, observations were used to correct the forecast radiation and thus improve road weather forecasts for a set of specific sites. Eighteen different configurations of this methodology were tested for 20 road weather stations in Finland during the autumn–winter period 3 October 2013 to 13 January 2014. This study shows that the coupling method has potential to significantly improve road surface temperature forecasts. Two model configurations in particular turned out to be better than the others giving almost equally good road surface temperature forecasts. It was found that the length of the adjustment period using the corrected radiation had only a slight effect on the results. The outcome of this study can be used to improve road weather models and thus achieve more accurate forecasts.

High-quality road condition forecasts are a prerequisite for road authorities to ensure wintertime road safety. Harsh winter conditions can cause problems for traffic not only in countries where snowy winters are common but also in regions where the temperature drops below the freezing point occasionally. This study reports on the evaluation of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) new road weather forecasting model by comparing it with the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) road weather model, both run for 321 Dutch road weather stations, four times daily (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC) during the test period, 15 January–28 February 2015. Road surface temperature forecasts by both models were evaluated against observations. The KNMI model produced slightly more accurate forecasts than the FMI model. The main reason for the difference is probably due to the optimization of the physical properties of the KNMI model for the Netherlands, whereas the FMI model is designed for quite different Finnish wintertime meteorological conditions. However, in general the road surface temperature forecasts were of quite comparable quality.

The advances in communication technologies have made it possible to gather road condition information from moving vehicles in real time. However, data quality must be assessed and its effects on the road weather forecasts analyzed before using the new data as input in forecasting systems. Road surface temperature forecasts assimilating mobile observations in the initialization were verified in this study. In addition to using measured values directly, different statistical corrections were applied to the mobile observations before using them in the road weather model. The verification results are compared to a control run without surface temperature measurements and to a control run that utilized interpolated values from surrounding road weather stations. Simulations were done for the period 12 October 2017–30 April 2018 for stationary road weather station points in southern Finland. Road surface temperature observations from the stations were used in the forecast verification. According to the results, the mobile observations improved the accuracy of road surface temperature forecasts when compared to the first control run. The statistical correction methods had a positive effect on forecast accuracy during the winter, but the effect varied during spring when the daily temperature variation was strong. In the winter season, the forecasts based on the interpolated road surface temperature values and the forecasts utilizing mobile observations with statistical correction had comparable accuracy. However, the tested area has high road weather station density and not much elevation variation, so results might have been different in more varying terrain.

Forecasting road conditions is important, especially in areas with wintry conditions and rapidly changing weather. Accurate forecasts help authorities keep roads safe and optimize maintenance. Considering local features is important when making the forecast because the road surface temperature can vary significantly depending on the road surroundings. For example, in a shadowed location, the road surface temperature can be significantly lower than in open surroundings. A road weather model developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute is used to forecast the road surface temperature and road conditions. However, the model still assumes open road surroundings. In this study, sky view factor and screening are included in the model, and their effects on the forecast road surface temperature is tested. Road surface temperature hindcasts were performed for 23 selected road weather stations in Finland for three winter periods (October–March) between 2018 and 2021. The results were location dependent, and even changing the lane had a great effect on the verification results in some cases. At best, the screening considerably decreased RMSE values during the day. However, there were many cases in which the screening increased RMSE. In general, the used shadowing algorithm increased the already negative bias during the day. Nevertheless, there were also cases in which the shadowing algorithm improved the bias, especially in February. During the night, the sky view factor made the forecast generally a little warmer, which often slightly decreased the negative bias in the forecast. Significance Statement: The screening caused by objects surrounding a road has a great effect on the road surface temperature. Recently, a screening algorithm was added to the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s model that forecasts road conditions. The purpose of this study was to test how the algorithm affects the accuracy of road surface temperature forecasts. According to the results, the screening greatly improved the forecast accuracy in some cases. However, in some cases, the screening made the already overly cold forecast even colder. The study has increased our understanding of the effect of shadowing in the modeled road surface temperatures and helps to create more accurate forecasts in the future.

Mobile, vehicle-installed road weather sensors are becoming ubiquitous. While mobile sensors are often capable of making observations on a high frequency, their reliability and accuracy may vary. Large-scale road weather observation and forecasting are still mostly based on stationary road weather stations (RWS). Though expensive, sparsely located and making observations on a relatively low frequency, RWS’ reliability and accuracy are well-known and accommodated for in the road weather forecasting models. Statistical analysis revealed that road weather conditions indeed have a great effect on how the observations of mobile and stationary road weather temperature sensors differ from each other. Consequently, we calibrated the observations of mobile sensors with a linear mixed model. The mixed model was fitted fusing ca. 20 000 pairs of mobile and RWS observations of the same location at the same time, following a rendezvous model of sensor calibration. The calibration nearly halved the MSE between the observations of the mobile and the RWS sensor types. Computationally very light, the calibration can be embedded directly in the sensors.

Icy and snowy road conditions cause problems in many countries where temperature often drops below 0 °C. Preventive actions are necessary to keep roads ice-free and to optimize maintenance operations. Accurate road surface temperature and road condition forecasts are essential help for road maintenance crews to plan their actions. The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has produced road weather forecasts for many years with the in-house road weather model RoadSurf to aid local road authorities. Recently, FMI published an open-source road weather model library that consists of RoadSurf functions. The open publication provides an opportunity for many institutes and companies to use the library in road weather forecasting. The evaluation of the library shows that it is well suited for forecasting road surface temperature.