In this article, we deal with the estimation, under a semi-parametric framework, of a positive extreme value index γ, the primary parameter in Statistics of Extremes, and associated estimation of the Value at Risk (VaR) at a level p, the size of the loss occurred with a small probability p. We consider second-order minimum-variance reduced-bias (MVRB) estimators, and propose the use of bootstrap computer-intensive methods for the adaptive choice of thresholds, both for γ and Varp. Applications in the fields of insurance and finance, as well as a small-scale simulation study of the bootstrap adaptive estimators’ behaviour, are also provided.
Logistic and Gompertz growth equations are the usual choice to model sustainable growth and immoderate growth causing depletion of resources, respectively. Observing that the logistic distribution is geo-max-stable and the Gompertz function is proportional to the Gumbel max-stable distribution, we investigate other models proportional to either geo-max-stable distributions (log-logistic and backward log-logistic) or to other max-stable distributions (Fréchet or max-Weibull). We show that the former arise when in the hyper-logistic Blumberg equation, connected to the Beta function, we use fractional exponents and , and the latter when in the hyper-Gompertz-Turner equation, the exponents of the logarithmic factor are real and eventually fractional. The use of a BetaBoop function establishes interesting connections to Probability Theory, Riemann–Liouville’s fractional integrals, higher-order monotonicity and convexity and generalized unimodality, and the logistic map paradigm inspires the investigation of the dynamics of the hyper-logistic and hyper-Gompertz maps.
1 December 2001 in Infinite Dimensional Analysis, Quantum Probability and Related Topics