We report increasing dispersion in the returns to graduate education in Britain, and relate this development to rising overqualification. We distinguish ‘Real’ and ‘Formal’ overqualification, according to whether it is accompanied by underutilization of skill. Employees in the former group experience greater, and more sharply rising, pay penalties than those in the latter group. Real Overqualification, but not Formal Overqualification, is associated with job dissatisfaction. While Formal Overqualification has been increasing over time, Real Overqualification has been steady or rising only slowly. The normative implication drawn is that the state should provide regular information on the distribution of the returns to graduate education.

This paper investigates the effect of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) using a dataset of all host countries for the period of 2010–2015. The employed econometric technique combines a difference-in-differences estimator with matching techniques. The results show that China’s OFDI in OBOR countries is about 40% higher than in non-OBOR countries. After the initiative, the OFDI from China increases by 46.2% in OBOR countries. However, after controlling for the heterogeneity across OBOR and non-OBOR countries using the matching approach, the significance of the increasing effect caused by the OBOR initiative disappears. We also find the OBOR initiative diminishes the resource-seeking motivation and improves the market-seeking motivation of China’s OFDI. Our results cast doubts on the infrastructure-led and institution-based strategy of the OBOR initiative, but support the boosting effect of the OBOR initiative on institutional cooperation and cultural convergence. Thus, the OBOR initiative is a sustainable continuation and development of the long tradition of economic, institutional, and cultural convergence with the OBOR countries, rather than a temporary policy shock.

Despite macroeconomic evidence pointing to a negative aggregate consumption response due to political uncertainty, few papers have used microeconomic panel data to analyze how households adjust their consumption after an uncertainty shock. We study household savings and expenditure adjustment from an unexpected, large-scale and rapidly evolving political shock that occurred largely in May 1989 in Beijing, China. Using monthly micro panel data, we present evidence that a surge in political uncertainty resulted in significant temporary increases in savings among urban households in China. Households responded mainly by reducing semi-durable expenditure and frequency of major durable adjustment. The uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, and more socially advantaged households. We interpret our findings using existing models of precautionary behavior. By focusing on time variation in uncertainty, our identification strategy avoids many of the potential problems in empirical studies of precautionary savings such as self-selection and life-cycle effects.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2015.12.01