Among the elderly, depression is one of the most common mental disorders, which seriously affects their physical and mental health and quality of life, and their suicide rate is particularly high. Depression in the elderly is strongly associated with surgery. In this study, we aimed to explore the risk factors and establish a predictive model of depressive symptoms 1 month after video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) in elderly patients. The study participants included 272 elderly patients (age > 65 years) undergoing VATS from April 2020 to May 2021 at 1 of 18 medical centers in China. The patients were divided into a depression group and a nondepression group according to the Chinese version of the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). The patients’ pre- and postoperative characteristics and questionnaires were collected and compared. Then, binary logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors that affect postoperative depressive symptoms, and the predictive model was constructed. The prediction efficiency of the model was evaluated by drawing the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the value of the predictive model. Among all of the included patients, 16.54% (45/272) suffered from depressive symptoms after VATS. The results of the univariate analysis showed that body mass index (BMI), chronic pain, leukocyte count, fibrinogen levels, prothrombin time, ASA physical status, infusion volume, anxiety, sleep quality, and postoperative pain were related to postoperative depressive symptoms (all p < 0.05). The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a high fibrinogen level (OR = 2.42), postoperative anxiety (OR = 12.05), poor sleep quality (OR = 0.61), and pain (OR = 2.85) were risk factors of postoperative depressive symptoms. A predictive model was constructed according to the regression coefficient of each variable, the ROC curve was drawn, and the AUC value was calculated to be 0.889. The prediction model may help medical personnel identify older patients at risk of developing depressive disorders associated with VATS and may be useful for clinical purposes.