Flow in complex karst aquifers is challenging to conceptualize and model, especially in poorly investigated areas, in semiarid climates, and under changing climatic conditions; however, it is necessary in order to implement long-term sustainable water management practices. Thus, the objectives of this work were to propose a calibration approach based on time series analyses for a karst aquifer and to assess the impact of climate change on spring discharge. Based on more than 3 years of high-resolution continuous monitoring, a semi-distributed lumped model was calibrated and validated for the Qachqouch karst spring, north of Beirut (Lebanon). Time series analyses and decomposition of spring hydrographs revealed that the system has a high regulatory function, with considerable storage capacity providing stable flow (minimum flow of 0.2 m³ s⁻¹) during the dry season and with flow rates exceeding 10 m³ s⁻¹ during the wet season, which is similar to other karst aquifers in the region. Based on this detailed understanding of the hydrodynamics of the system, the model geometry and parameters were validated. Three linear reservoirs were implemented to reproduce the combined contribution of the different flow components of the system. A satisfactory simulation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, NSE, of 0.72) of the measured spring flow rates was obtained after calibration. Climate change conditions (+1 to +3 ^∘C warming, −10 % to −30 % less precipitation annually, and the intensification of rain events) were added to a baseline climatic year to produce scenarios of expected spring flow responses. Results show that the Qachqouch karst aquifer is sensitive to decreasing rainfall, which is associated with more pronounced recessions, with flow rates decreasing by 34 % and 1-month longer dry periods. Because of the limited influence of snow on the spring flow rate, a warming climate has less impact on spring flow conditions than a reduction in precipitation. Although the model shows that increasing rainfall intensity induces larger floods, recessions, and shorter low-flow periods, the real impact of high-intensity precipitation events remains uncertain, as the model does not account for complex unsaturated and epikarstic processes. This work shows that calibrating a semi-distributed lumped model using time series analyses can be an efficient approach to improve simulations of complex karst aquifers, thereby providing useful models for long-term sustainable water management.

Hydrological models are widely used to characterize, understand and manage hydrosystems. Lumped parameter models are of particular interest in karst environments given the complexity and heterogeneity of these systems. There is a multitude of lumped parameter modelling approaches, which can make it difficult for a manager or researcher to choose. We therefore conducted a comparison of two lumped parameter modelling approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs) and reservoir models. We investigate five karst systems in the Mediterranean and Alpine regions with different characteristics in terms of climatic conditions, hydrogeological properties and data availability. We compare the results of ANN and reservoir modelling approaches using several performance criteria over different hydrological periods. The results show that both ANNs and reservoir models can accurately simulate karst spring discharge but also that they have different advantages and drawbacks: (i) ANN models are very flexible regarding the format and amount of input data, (ii) reservoir models can provide good results even with a few years of relevant discharge in the calibration period and (iii) ANN models seem robust for reproducing high-flow conditions, while reservoir models are superior in reproducing low-flow conditions. However, both modelling approaches struggle to reproduce extreme events (droughts, floods), which is a known problem in hydrological modelling. For research purposes, ANN models have been shown to be useful for identifying recharge areas and delineating catchments, based on insights into the input data. Reservoir models are adapted to understand the hydrological functioning of a system by studying model structure and parameters.

This article examines the relative impacts of anthropogenic interventions and global climate change on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion in highly urbanized coastal aquifers. For this purpose, simulations of the impacts of sea-level rise and abstraction scenarios for the near future were undertaken for a pilot aquifer using a multi-objective 3D variable-density flow and solute transport model. We find that sea-level rise associated with climate change has less influence on the encroachment of salinity than anthropogenic abstraction, which has a more appreciable impact on saltwater intrusion through greater sensitivity to water consumption and seasonality.