An evolutionary algorithm predicts anti-inflammatory drug combinations that have synergistic effects on IL-1β expression more efficiently than would empirical approaches of testing drug combinations individually. The control of biochemical fluxes is distributed, and to perturb complex intracellular networks effectively it is often necessary to modulate several steps simultaneously. However, the number of possible permutations leads to a combinatorial explosion in the number of experiments that would have to be performed in a complete analysis. We used a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm to optimize reagent combinations from a dynamic chemical library of 33 compounds with established or predicted targets in the regulatory network controlling IL-1β expression. The evolutionary algorithm converged on excellent solutions within 11 generations, during which we studied just 550 combinations out of the potential search space of ∼9 billion. The top five reagents with the greatest contribution to combinatorial effects throughout the evolutionary algorithm were then optimized pairwise. A p38 MAPK inhibitor together with either an inhibitor of IκB kinase or a chelator of poorly liganded iron yielded synergistic inhibition of macrophage IL-1β expression. Evolutionary searches provide a powerful and general approach to the discovery of new combinations of pharmacological agents with therapeutic indices potentially greater than those of single drugs.
1 June 2015 in European Journal of Operational Research
Real-world optimization problems are often subject to several constraints which are expensive to evaluate in terms of cost or time. Although a lot of effort is devoted to make use of surrogate models for expensive optimization tasks, not many strong surrogate-assisted algorithms can address the challenging constrained problems. Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) is a Kriging-based surrogate-assisted algorithm. It was originally proposed to address unconstrained problems and later was modified to solve constrained problems. However, these type of algorithms still suffer from several issues, mainly: (1) early stagnation, (2) problems with multiple active constraints and (3) frequent crashes. In this work, we introduce a new EGO-based algorithm which tries to overcome these common issues with Kriging optimization algorithms. We apply the proposed algorithm on problems with dimension d ≤ 4 from the G-function suite [16] and on an airfoil shape example.
29 August 2024 in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
In order to trust the predictions of a machine learning algorithm, it is necessary to understand the factors that contribute to those predictions. In the case of probabilistic and uncertainty-aware models, it is necessary to understand not only the reasons for the predictions themselves, but also the reasons for the model’s level of confidence in those predictions. In this paper, we show how existing methods in explainability can be extended to uncertainty-aware models and how such extensions can be used to understand the sources of uncertainty in a model’s predictive distribution. In particular, by adapting permutation feature importance, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots, we demonstrate that novel insights into model behaviour may be obtained and that these methods can be used to measure the impact of features on both the entropy of the predictive distribution and the log-likelihood of the ground truth labels under that distribution. With experiments using both synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate the utility of these approaches to understand both the sources of uncertainty and their impact on model performance.