Renewable energies, such as solar and wind power, have become promising sources of energy to address the increase in greenhouse gases caused by the use of fossil fuels and to resolve the current energy crisis. Integrating wind energy into a large-scale electric grid presents a significant challenge due to the high intermittency and nonlinear behavior of wind power. Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for safe and efficient integration into the grid system. Many prediction models have been developed to predict the uncertain and nonlinear time series of wind power, but most neglect the use of Bayesian optimization to optimize the hyperparameters while training deep learning algorithms. The efficiency of grid search strategies decreases as the number of hyperparameters increases, and computation time complexity becomes an issue. This paper presents a robust and optimized long-short term memory network for forecasting wind power generation in the day ahead in the context of Ethiopia’s renewable energy sector. The proposal uses Bayesian optimization to find the best hyperparameter combination in a reasonable computation time. The results indicate that tuning hyperparameters using this metaheuristic prior to building deep learning models significantly improves the predictive performances of the models. The proposed models were evaluated using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics, and outperformed both the baseline models and the optimized gated recurrent unit architecture.

Accurate prediction of electric energy consumption is crucial for efficient load dispatching, energy utilization, and grid operation. Traditional statistical and classical machine learning methods struggle with the nonlinear nature of energy consumption data, often leading to higher prediction errors. Additionally, deep learning models using a single approach face challenges such as convergence to local minima and poor generalization. This paper proposes a nonlinear ensemble deep learning model for residential energy consumption prediction, incorporating Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning. The model combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN), leveraging their powerful nonlinear feature learning capabilities. A k-means clustering approach is used to preprocess and reduce variability in the data, enhancing the ensemble model's performance. The ensemble model was tested on real energy consumption data from two districts in Addis Ababa, showing significant improvements in prediction accuracy with lower MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values compared to single models and un-clustered data. The integration of clustering and Bayesian optimization further enhanced model generalizability and minimized overfitting, demonstrating the effectiveness of a nonlinear approach in capturing complex energy consumption patterns.