Numerous observational studies have attempted to identify risk factors for infection with SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 disease outcomes. Studies have used datasets sampled from patients admitted to hospital, people tested for active infection, or people who volunteered to participate. Here, we highlight the challenge of interpreting observational evidence from such non-representative samples. Collider bias can induce associations between two or more variables which affect the likelihood of an individual being sampled, distorting associations between these variables in the sample. Analysing UK Biobank data, compared to the wider cohort the participants tested for COVID-19 were highly selected for a range of genetic, behavioural, cardiovascular, demographic, and anthropometric traits. We discuss the mechanisms inducing these problems, and approaches that could help mitigate them. While collider bias should be explored in existing studies, the optimal way to mitigate the problem is to use appropriate sampling strategies at the study design stage.

Background: Evidence suggests that in utero exposure to undernutrition and overnutrition might affect adiposity in later life. Epigenetic modification is suggested as a plausible mediating mechanism. Methods: We used multivariable linear regression and a negative control design to examine offspring epigenome-wide DNA methylation in relation to maternal and offspring adiposity in 1018 participants. Results: Compared with neonatal offspring of normal weight mothers, 28 and 1621 CpG sites were differentially methylated in offspring of obese and underweight mothers, respectively [false discovert rate (FDR)-corrected P-value < 0.05), with no overlap in the sites that maternal obesity and underweight relate to. A positive association, where higher methylation is associated with a body mass index (BMI) outside the normal range, was seen at 78.6% of the sites associated with obesity and 87.9% of the sites associated with underweight. Associations of maternal obesity with offspring methylation were stronger than associations of paternal obesity, supporting an intrauterine mechanism. There were no consistent associations of gestational weight gain with offspring DNA methylation. In general, sites that were hypermethylated in association with maternal obesity or hypomethylated in association with maternal underweight tended to be positively associated with offspring adiposity, and sites hypomethylated in association with maternal obesity or hypermethylated in association with maternal underweight tended to be inversely associated with offspring adiposity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that both maternal obesity and, to a larger degree, underweight affect the neonatal epigenome via an intrauterine mechanism, but weight gain during pregnancy has little effect. We found some evidence that associations of maternal underweight with lower offspring adiposity and maternal obesity with greater offspring adiposity may be mediated via increased DNA methylation.

Pre-pregnancy maternal obesity is associated with adverse offspring outcomes at birth and later in life. Individual studies have shown that epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation could contribute. Within the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics (PACE) Consortium, we meta-analysed the association between pre-pregnancy maternal BMI and methylation at over 450,000 sites in newborn blood DNA, across 19 cohorts (9,340 mother-newborn pairs). We attempted to infer causality by comparing the effects of maternal versus paternal BMI and incorporating genetic variation. In four additional cohorts (1,817 mother-child pairs), we meta-analysed the association between maternal BMI at the start of pregnancy and blood methylation in adolescents. In newborns, maternal BMI was associated with small (<0.2% per BMI unit (1 kg/m²), P < 1.06 × 10⁻⁷) methylation variation at 9,044 sites throughout the genome. Adjustment for estimated cell proportions greatly attenuated the number of significant CpGs to 104, including 86 sites common to the unadjusted model. At 72/86 sites, the direction of the association was the same in newborns and adolescents, suggesting persistence of signals. However, we found evidence for acausal intrauterine effect of maternal BMI on newborn methylation at just 8/86 sites. In conclusion, this well-powered analysis identified robust associations between maternal adiposity and variations in newborn blood DNA methylation, but these small effects may be better explained by genetic or lifestyle factors than a causal intrauterine mechanism. This highlights the need for large-scale collaborative approaches and the application of causal inference techniques in epigenetic epidemiology.

DNA methylation-based biomarkers of aging are highly correlated with actual age. Departures of methylation-estimated age from actual age can be used to define epigenetic measures of child development or age acceleration (AA) in adults. Very little is known about genetic or environmental determinants of these epigenetic measures of aging. We obtained DNA methylation profiles using Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChips across five time-points in 1018 mother–child pairs from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Using the Horvath age estimation method, we calculated epigenetic age for these samples. AA was defined as the residuals from regressing epigenetic age on actual age. AA was tested for associations with cross-sectional clinical variables in children. We identified associations between AA and sex, birth weight, birth by caesarean section and several maternal characteristics in pregnancy, namely smoking, weight, BMI, selenium and cholesterol level. Offspring of non-drinkers had higher AA on average but this difference appeared to resolve during childhood. The associations between sex, birth weight and AA found in ARIES were replicated in an independent cohort (GOYA). In children, epigenetic AA measures are associated with several clinically relevant variables, and early life exposures appear to be associated with changes in AA during adolescence. Further research into epigenetic aging, including the use of causal inference methods, is required to better our understanding of aging.