A brief overview of a statistical method to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is presented. This study addresses some issues associated with Hershfield’s -value method to estimate PMP in China, which can be solved by the revised Hershfield’s -value method. This new derivation makes it clear that the frequency factor is dependent on only two variables, the standardized variable, , the maximum deviation from the mean scaled by its standard deviation, and the sample size, . It is found that there is a consistent relationship between and . Therefore, can be used to make a preliminary estimate of PMP under some conditions when sufficient rainfall data are available. The advantages and disadvantages of this revised -value method are also discussed here with a case study for the estimation of 24 h PMP in Hong Kong. The 24 h PMP estimate in Hong Kong based on the local rainfall data is approximately 1,753 mm.
A short-time rainstorm exceeding the extreme historical rainfall occurred in the Jinnan District of Tianjin, China, on 3 July 2022. Due to the concentrated time period of precipitation, it caused serious water accumulation in the Jinnan District. The purpose of this paper is to study the weather mechanism of this extreme rainstorm in the Jinan District of Tianjin. By analyzing the fine observation facts, we can obtain the mesoscale weather characteristics and environmental conditions of the process. The results provide a reference for similar weather forecasting and warning in the future. Based on the 1 min interval precipitation observation data, the ERA5 reanalysis data, the CINRAD-SA radar reflectivity data of Tanggu, the cloud-top brightness temperature data of the Fengyun-4A satellite, and the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System data, we comprehensively analyzed a record-breaking extreme rainfall process in Tianjin on 3 July 2022. The results show that the extreme rainfall process presents prominent mesoscale weather characteristics, with high precipitation intensity in a short-term period. This process is influenced by multi-scale weather systems, including the 500 hPa upper-level trough and the long-distance water vapor transport by Typhoon Chaba. The rainstorm event is caused by the combined actions of cold pool outflow produced by the upstream precipitation, the easterly disturbance in the boundary layer, the mesoscale temperature front, and the ground convergence line. Specifically, the ground convergence line is formed by the northerly wind of the cold pool outflow and the warm and moist southerly airflow from the ocean, and the temperature front is caused by the horizontal thermal difference of the underlying surface. Both the ground convergence line and temperature front contribute considerably to the triggering of mesoscale convection. The mesoscale secondary circulation is formed in the meridional direction by the meso-γ-scale convergence and its interaction with strong velocity in front of the trough, contributing to the development and maintenance of vertical motion in the Jinnan region of Tianjin and thereby leading to the occurrence and development of this extreme heavy rainfall process.
A long-lasting rainfall event exceeding historical extremes took place in Jiangxi, China, from May 4 to 6, 2023. Because of the concentrated duration of precipitation, it led to significant water accumulation in the northern, central, and southern regions of Jiangxi. The objective of this study was to investigate the weather mechanisms underlying this extreme rainstorm in Jiangxi. By examining detailed observational data, the mesoscale weather characteristics and environmental conditions of the event can be obtained. These findings offer valuable insights for future weather forecasting and warnings. It was observed that after the Huanghuai cyclone moved eastward into the sea, the cold air on its western side shifted northward and converged with the warm, moisture-laden air mass in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. This convergence of air masses triggered the heavy rainstorm event. The peak precipitation period occurred from midnight on May 5 to 0800 BJT on May 6. Concerning the macroscopic precipitation characteristics, multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) originated in Hunan during this period and progressed eastward along the shear line toward the central part of Jiangxi. As for the microscopic precipitation features, the total precipitation amount was closely linked to the duration of heavy rain droplets. The rainfall distribution in the raindrop spectrum also served as a valuable reference for understanding the persistence and size of precipitation. The temporal pattern of the combined reflectivity echo along 27.5° N indicated that from 2000 BJT on May 5 to the early morning of May 6, there was a rapid development of a weaker MCS after passing through the Luoxiao Mountains. This development resulted in a “train effect” in the central region of Jiangxi. The presence of a 200 hPa divergence area, high vertical ascent rate, and abundant water vapor contributed to the formation of a narrow area of heavy rainstorms in central Jiangxi. Additionally, the falling area of heavy rain coincided with the front of the 500 hPa low trough. In the northern part of Jiangxi, the occurrence of heavy precipitation was influenced by the equivalent temperature front area. Favorable conditions, including water vapor, dynamics, and thermal factors, further supported the occurrence of heavy precipitation.
Detection of underwater buried objects requires low-frequency wave as the detecting source and high-resolution imaging. Taken these into account, this paper proposes a method to process the linear frequency modulated signal (LFM) based on parametric array theory. The distortion of the LFM demodulated by the parametric array and corresponding matched filter are studied by numerical method. The numerical simulation indicates that the frequency bandwidth for the self-demodulation signal has been doubled relative to its original bandwidth when LFM is emitted from the parametric array. In this context, a simple modified matched filter is proposed to do pulse compression. Both the simulation and experiment prove that the proposed matched filter can guarantee the accuracy of pulse compression. Furthermore, there is no sidelobe after pulse compression.
Using ground-based remote sensing equipment (wind profile radar and microwave radiometer) data and ground automatic station data, a ground-based remote sensing sounding profile system (FAS) is constructed, which aims to make use of its advantages of high resolution, high accuracy, and low cost to make up for the lack of space–time density in existing conventional sounding layer information. The retrieval results of remote sensing sounding profiles in Beijing from May 2021 to September 2022 were tested and evaluated. The results show that the correlation coefficient between FAS and conventional sounding specific humidity is 0.89, the root–mean–square deviation is 1.53 g/kg, and the evolution trends of different data sources of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and vertical wind shear are synchronous. A case study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of 40 severe convective processes in the Beijing Plain area. The results show that, due to the minute-level time resolution of FAS, the retrieved convective parameters could track the evolution trend of the atmospheric state with high timeliness, dynamically describe the configuration of thermodynamic parameters, and indicate the time-varying local convective potential and instability level. Therefore, it has certain short-term forecasting significance for the occurrence time, intensity, and convection type.