The strongest X-class solar flare (SF) event in 24th solar cycle, X9.3, occurred on 6 September 2017, accompanied by earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Such space weather episodes are known to cause various threats to human activities ranging from radio communication and navigation disturbances including wave blackout to producing geomagnetic storms of different intensities. In this study, SFs’ ionospheric impacts and effects of accompanied heliospheric disturbances on primary cosmic rays (CR) are investigated. This work offers the first detailed investigation of characteristics of these extreme events since they were inspected both from the perspective of their electromagnetic nature, through very low frequency (VLF) radio waves, and their corpuscular nature of CR by multi-instrumental approach. Aside data recorded by Belgrade VLF and CR stations, data from GOES and SOHO space probes were used for modeling and analysis. Conducted numerical simulations revealed a significant change of ionospheric parameters (sharpness and effective reflection height) and few orders of magnitude increase of electron density. We compared our findings with those existing in the literature regarding the ionospheric response and corresponding parameters. In addition, Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, corrected for magnetospheric effect, derived from measurements, and one predicted from power exponents used to parametrize the shape of energetic proton fluence spectra at L1 were compared and found to be in good agreement. Presented findings could be useful for investigation of atmospheric plasma properties, particles’ modeling, and prediction of extreme weather impacts on human activities.

Correction of meteorological effects on muon component of secondary cosmic rays significantly extends the usability of muon monitors. We propose a new data driven empirical method for correction of meteorological effects on muon component of secondary cosmic rays, based on multivariate analysis. Several multivariate algorithms implemented in Toolkit for Multivariate Data Analysis with ROOT framework are trained and then applied to correct muon count rate for barometric and temperature effects. The effect of corrections on periodic and aperiodic cosmic ray variations is analyzed and compared with integral correction method, as well as with neutron monitor data. The best results are achieved by the application of linear discriminant method, which increases sensitivity of our muon detector to cosmic ray variations beyond other commonly used methods.

The study and better understanding of energetic transient phenomena caused by disturbances occurring on our Sun are of great importance, primarily due to the potential negative effects those events can have on Earth’s environment. Here, we present the continuation of our previous work on understanding the connection between disturbances in the flux of energetic particles induced in the near-Earth environment by the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and related Forbush decrease events. The relationship between the shape of fluence spectra of energetic protons measured by the instruments on the SOHO/ERNE probe at Lagrange point L1, Forbush decrease parameters measured by the worldwide network of neutron monitors, and coronal mass ejection parameters measured in situ is investigated. Various parameters used to characterize transient phenomena and their impact on the heliosphere, provided by the WIND spacecraft, were utilized to improve the accuracy of the calculation of the associated energetic proton fluence. The single and double power laws with exponential rollover were used to model the fluence spectra, and their effectiveness was compared. Correlation analysis between exponents used to characterize the shape of fluence spectra and Forbush decrease parameters is presented, and the results obtained by the two models are discussed.

The X1.59 solar flare on 3 July 2021, was the first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 25 and the first since the X-class flare on 10 September 2017. This event was notable for producing a rare geomagnetic crochet, a temporary and localized perturbation in Earth’s magnetic field during the flare’s peak. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first VLF-based analysis of this event, as well as the first comprehensive multi-instrument investigation of it. VLF observations from the NAA and DHO transmitters were used to investigate the ionospheric response via amplitude and phase variations. Key low ionosphere parameters, including the effective reflection height, sharpness factor, time delay and electron density profiles were derived. The results reveal rapid ionospheric responses closely correlated with X-ray flux peaks, including sudden phase and amplitude perturbations indicative of increased low ionosphere ionization and the geomagnetic crochet effect. Simultaneously, cosmic-ray measurements from ground detectors showed negligible modulation and no significant Forbush decrease, consistent with the flare’s weak and partially Earth-directed CME. Also, the spectrum of energetic protons measured in-situ in near-Earth space shows little disturbance. This integrated study demonstrates the sensitivity of the lower ionosphere to intense solar radiation and highlights the limited short-term impact on cosmic-ray and solar energetic proton flux, providing a comprehensive assessment of flare-driven space-weather effects during the early phase of Solar Cycle 25.

Some of the extreme events that occur on the Sun are solar flares and coronal mass ejections. These transient phenomena, driven by the realignment of the Sun’s magnetic field, induce various secondary processes in the Sun’s heliosphere and Earth’s magnetosphere. The processes may include shock waves, acceleration, and consequent increases in the flux of charged particles, as well as interaction with and modulation of primary cosmic rays, among others. Concurrent increases in the flux of energetic protons measured near Earth and decreases in the flux of cosmic rays detected by Earth-based detectors could both be attributed to the passage of interplanetary shocks. To establish this relationship, connections between the parameters of induced Forbush decreases measured at Earth and the shape of event-integrated fluence spectra of energetic protons measured at L1 have been studied. Such analysis primarily focuses on investigating the correlation between power indices used to parameterize the differential fluence spectra and the magnitudes of associated Forbush decreases. In the presented work, the analysis is expanded to include additional models used to model the fluence spectra and compare them in order to find the best-performing one.