Background— In patients with systolic heart failure, high levels of circulating aldosterone are associated with an adverse prognosis, and mineralocorticoid receptor blockade improves survival. The prognostic significance of cortisol that may also bind and activate the mineralocorticoid receptor in chronic heart failure is unknown. Methods and Results— Serum levels of cortisol and aldosterone were quantified in a prospective cohort study of 294 consecutive patients with chronic heart failure [48% were in New York Heart Association functional class III or IV; 58% had systolic heart failure]. During a median follow-up of 803 days (interquartile range, 314 to 1098), 79 patients died (27.3% mortality rate). Cortisol and aldosterone were independent predictors of increased mortality risk in Cox regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, New York Heart Association functional class, C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, sodium, and hypercholesterolemia. The hazard ratio for highest versus lowest tertile of cortisol was 2.72 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38 to 5.36; P =0.004], and the hazard ratio for aldosterone was 2.19 (95% CI, 1.23 to 3.93; P =0.008). Patients with both cortisol and aldosterone levels above the respective medians had a 3.4-fold higher mortality risk compared with subjects with both corticosteroids below the median (95% CI, 1.54 to 7.46; P =0.0001). Addition of cortisol and aldosterone levels to the fully adjusted model significantly improved the discriminatory power [increase in Harrell’s C -statistic from 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.90) to 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.94; P <0.001 for change]. Conclusions— In patients with chronic heart failure, higher serum levels of both cortisol and aldosterone were independent predictors of increased mortality risk that conferred complementary and incremental prognostic value.

Background: The Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) defines COPD as a fixed post-bronchodilator ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second and forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) below 0.7. Age-dependent cut-off values below the lower fifth percentile (LLN) of this ratio derived from the general population have been proposed as an alternative. We wanted to assess the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic capability of the GOLD and LLN definition when compared to an expert-based diagnosis. Methods: In a prospective cohort study, 405 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a general practitioner's diagnosis of COPD were recruited and followed up for 4.5 (median; quartiles 3.9; 5.1) years. Prevalence rates of COPD according to GOLD and three LLN definitions and diagnostic performance measurements were calculated. The reference standard was the diagnosis of COPD of an expert panel that used all available diagnostic information, including spirometry and bodyplethysmography. Results: Compared to the expert panel diagnosis, 'GOLD-COPD' misclassified 69 (28%) patients, and the three LLNs misclassified 114 (46%), 96 (39%), and 98 (40%) patients, respectively. The GOLD classification led to more false positives, the LLNs to more false negative diagnoses. The main predictors beyond the FEV1/FVC ratio for an expert diagnosis of COPD were the FEV1 % predicted, and the residual volume/total lung capacity ratio (RV/TLC). Adding FEV1 and RV/TLC to GOLD or LLN improved the diagnostic accuracy, resulting in a significant reduction of up to 50% of the number of misdiagnoses. The expert diagnosis of COPD better predicts exacerbations, hospitalizations and mortality than GOLD or LLN. Conclusions: GOLD criteria over-diagnose COPD, while LLN definitions under-diagnose COPD in elderly patients as compared to an expert panel diagnosis. Incorporating FEV1 and RV/TLC into the GOLD-COPD or LLN-based definition brings both definitions closer to expert panel diagnosis of COPD, and to daily clinical practice.

Observational studies indicate that classical cardiovascular risk factors as body mass index, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure are associated with improved rather than impaired survival in heart failure ("reverse epidemiology"). We estimated the prognostic role of these risk factors in unselected patients with heart failure. Consecutive subjects with heart failure of any cause and severity were enrolled (n=867), and survivors were followed for a median period of 594 days (25th to 75th percentile, 435 to 840). Mean age was 70+/-13 years, 41% were female, New York Heart Association class distribution I through IV was 15%/29%/41%/15%, and 49% had preserved left ventricular ejection function. At follow-up, 34% of the patients had died. Low levels of any risk factor (ie, body mass index, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure in the low tertile) indicated the highest mortality risk. After adjustment for age, sex, New York Heart Association class, and ejection fraction, >/=2 risk factors in the high tertile indicated a relative reduction in mortality risk of 51% (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.68; P=0.001) compared with subjects with 3 risk factors in the low tertile. Further adjustment for cause of heart failure, relevant comorbidities, medication, and biomarkers attenuated this association only modestly (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.89; P=0.009). In patients with heart failure, mortality risk counterintuitively increased on a cumulative scale with lower levels of body mass index, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure, irrespective of the type and severity of heart failure. Future studies need to identify whether risk factor control as presently recommended should be advocated in all patients with heart failure.

Aims To investigate in detail the correlates of dysnatremia, and to estimate its differential prognostic relevance in patients with heart failure with reduced or preserved LVEF. Background Hyponatraemia has been shown to carry important prognostic information in patients with heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, exact serum sodium cut‐off levels are not defined and the implications for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HF‐pEF) are unclear. The prognostic value of hypernatraemia has not been investigated systematically. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate in detail the correlates of dysnatraemia, and to estimate its differential prognostic relevance in patients with heart failure with reduced or preserved LVEF. Methods and results One thousand consecutive patients with heart failure of any cause and severity from the Würzburg Interdisciplinary Network for Heart Failure registry were included. Non‐linear models for the association between serum sodium and mortality risk were calculated using restricted cubic splines and Cox proportional hazard regression. Median follow‐up time for survivors was 5.1 years. Results Independent correlates of dysnatraemia included guideline‐recommended medication for chronic heart failure, indicators of renal function, and reverse associations with established cardiac risk factors. Overall mortality was 56%. Both hyponatraemia (n = 72) and hypernatraemia (n = 98) were associated with a significantly increased mortality risk: hazard ratio (HR) 2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60–2.77; and HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.49–2.45, respectively. A U‐shaped association of serum sodium with mortality risk was found. Prognosis was best for patients with high normal sodium levels, i.e. 140–145 mmol/L. Conclusions Both hypo‐ and hypernatraemia indicate a markedly compromised prognosis in heart failure regardless of LVEF. Sodium levels within the reference range carry differential information on survival, with serum levels of 135–139 mmol/L indicating an increased mortality risk.