Previous studies find preventative behaviors designed to reduce the number of infections during emerging disease outbreaks are associated with perceived risk of disease susceptibility. Few studies have attempted to identify underlying factors that explain differences in perceptions of risk during an infectious disease outbreak. Drawing from two early waves of American Trends Panel (n=7,441), as well as a National Science Foundation funded, Qualtrics national panel survey from the early stages of the pandemic (n=10,368), we test whether race and ethnicity, gender, and age were associated with six perceived threat and fear outcomes related to COVID-19. Results demonstrate race and ethnicity, gender, and age play a significant role in shaping threat and fear perceptions of COVID-19, but depending on the outcome, relationships vary in direction and magnitude. In some cases, historically marginalized racial and ethnic groups were more likely to report high fear and perceive coronavirus as a major threat to population and individual health, whereas, in others cases, the same marginalized racial and ethnic groups were less likely to perceive coronavirus to be a serious threat to the immune-comprised and the elderly population. We also find women were generally more likely to report high levels of threat and fear of COVID-19. Finally, we observe a clear age difference, whereby adults in older age groups report high-risk perceptions of COVID-19. Findings can inform public health programs designed to educate communities on the benefits of engaging in effective preventative practices during emerging infectious disease outbreaks.

Extant literature on crime and place recognizes crime does not occur randomly across space and is influenced by physical place features within the environment, such as alcohol outlets, restaurants, and public transportation stops, that generates and attracts crime. However, many analyses of these features’ influence on crime are conducted across entire jurisdictions which could potentially misrepresent the particular relationships within more localized areas. With a movement in police agencies towards proactive data-driven analyses of crime, the ability to better understand the environmental context of crime events continues to grow in prominence. Building from environmental criminology perspectives and concepts, the current study presents a framework police agencies can implement to more precisely identify the underlying place features influencing where crime occurs in different areas of their broader jurisdiction. Using risk terrain modeling, the current study examined variation in the risk factors for aggravated assault between a citywide model and three police division-specific models. Each police division was considered a unique environmental context that differentially affects crime, which necessitated site-specific analysis within the city to inform tailored police response. Findings are discussed in a policing framework with attention on practitioner implications and future directions of research.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative’s (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks. Design/methodology/approach: Data on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC). Findings: The study reveals several key findings. First, certain behaviors categorized as suspicious, such as making threats, occur more frequently than others. Second, making threats, conducting surveillance and terrorist recruitment/financing predict law enforcement interdiction in terrorism plots, while misrepresentation (or the manufacturing and use of false documents) is more associated with terrorist success. Third, prevalent SAR indicators operate differently in the context of various combinations of suspicious activities to shape the likelihood for law enforcement interdiction. Research limitations/implications: The current study’s findings may not be generalizable to other forms of violent extremism and terrorism outside of the USA. Practical implications: This study illuminates opportunities for the NSI to provide law enforcement with the necessary tools to reduce terrorism risk and prevent future attacks. Originality/value: To our knowledge, no scholarly work to date has assessed how observable behavioral indicators of suspicious preoperational activities affect the outcomes of terrorist plots.