Several effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine’s effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number ($R_c$). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the $R_c$ below one). Moreover, lower values of $R_c$ are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.

(1) Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant global challenges; its impact in Africa, in particular, has been a subject of increasing concern. Vaccination against COVID-19 started in many African countries in 2020. Despite the remarkable progress made by a selected number of countries initiating vaccination campaigns in 2020, the global vaccination coverage against the targeted disease remains inadequate. This study aimed to assess the dynamics of COVID-19 in the face of vaccination in Africa. (2) Methods: We used an extended deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR)-type model stratified by vaccination status to mathematically analyze the effect of vaccination on the dynamics of COVID-19 in ten African countries, namely: Benin, Namibia, South Africa, Rwanda, Lybia, DRC, Nigeria, Algeria, Gabon and Kenya. We studied some basic properties of the model and derived the control and basic reproduction numbers Rc and R0, respectively. We further utilized the Castillo-Chavez method to investigate the global stability of the model at the disease-free equilibrium point under the condition Rc < 1. In addition, we developed the expressions of the sensitivity and elasticity of the control reproduction number (Rc) with respect to vaccination coverage, level of adherence to control measures (ψu and ψv), infection probabilities, and relative infectiousness of different compartments of Infected. The model was fitted using cumulative daily COVID-19 case data corresponding to each country's third wave of the pandemic. The unknown parameters are estimated using the non-linear least square method. We used the resulting parameter values to compute the sensitivity and elasticity indices. (3) Results: The study demonstrates the importance of sustaining high vaccination coverage and control measures to mitigate COVID-19 transmission in Africa. Results identify vaccination rates and population compliance to control measures as most influential based on sensitivity analysis. (4) Conclusions: By generating evidence tailored to the African context, this research provides crucial insights to inform resource allocation and interventions to combat COVID-19, where needs are greatest.