In the context of carbon neutrality, the low-carbon transition in agriculture is crucial to achieving carbon mitigation through clean production. The provision of agricultural productive services (APS) is pivotal for modernizing farming practices in China. However, the impact of this on the low-carbon transformation has received limited attention. This research examined the non-linear relationship between agricultural productive services and low-carbon development, including verifying a threshold effect with APS as the threshold variable, employing panel data for 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021. The results of the study suggested that the effect of services associated with agricultural productivity on the transition of the agricultural sector to low-carbon practices varied across threshold ranges. Specifically, when the APS exceeded the threshold of 2.4396, a significant suppressive effect was observed on carbon emission intensity. Further analysis revealed that APS indirectly influenced the farmland scale and agricultural technological advancements, thereby promoting the low-carbon transition of China’s agriculture. Based on these results, it is recommended to intensify the development of APS in key cereal-producing regions, while emphasizing the harmonious progress of these services in conjunction with large-scale farmland management.