Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar‐rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non‐Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non‐Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box‐Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box‐Cox with time‐variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box‐Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box‐Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross‐validation. However, it is observed that Box‐Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.
In urban hydrological models, rainfall is the main input and one of the main sources of uncertainty. To reach sufficient spatial coverage and resolution, the integration of several rainfall data sources, including rain gauges and weather radars, is often necessary. The uncertainty associated with rain gauge measurements is dependent on rainfall intensity and on the characteristics of the devices. Common spatial interpolation methods do not account for rain gauge uncertainty variability. Kriging for Uncertain Data (KUD) allows the handling of the uncertainty of each rain gauge independently, modelling space- and time-variant errors. The applications of KUD to rain gauge interpolation and radar-gauge rainfall merging are studied and compared. First, the methodology is studied with synthetic experiments, to evaluate its performance varying rain gauge density, accuracy and rainfall field characteristics. Subsequently, the method is applied to a case study in the Dommel catchment, the Netherlands, where high-quality automatic gauges are complemented by lower-quality tipping-bucket gauges and radar composites. The case study and the synthetic experiments show that considering measurement uncertainty in rain gauge interpolation usually improves rainfall estimations, given a sufficient rain gauge density. Considering measurement uncertainty in radar-gauge merging consistently improved the estimates in the tested cases, thanks to the additional spatial information of radar rainfall data but should still be used cautiously for convective events and low-density rain gauge networks.
Heat waves are one of the deadliest of natural hazards and their frequency and intensity will likely increase as the climate continues to warm. A challenge in studying these phenomena is the lack of a universally accepted quantitative definition that captures both temperature anomalies and associated mortality. We test the hypothesis that social media mining can be used to identify heat wave mortality. Applying the approach to India, we find that the number of heat-related tweets correlates with heat-related mortality much better than traditional climate-based indicators, especially at larger scales, which identify many heat wave days that do not lead to excess mortality. We conclude that social media based heat wave identification can complement climatic data and can be used to: (1) study heat wave impacts at large scales or in developing countries, where mortality data are difficult to obtain and uncertain, and (2) to track dangerous heat wave events in real time.
18 May 2016 in IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing
In this paper, we present a technique for improving the representation of built-up features in model-based multitemporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) RGB composites. The proposed technique exploits the multitemporal adaptive processing (MAP3) framework to generate an a priori information which is used to implement an adaptive selection of the coherence window size. Image texture is used to support the coherence information in case of decorrelation. The coherence information, powered by texture analysis, and combined with backscattering amplitude, provides a unique representation of built-up features. This allows for an immediate detection of urban agglomerates by human operators, and is an advantaged starting point for urban area extraction algorithms.
The optimal temporal resolution for rainfall applications in urban hydrological models depends on different factors. Accumulations are often used to reduce uncertainty, while a sufficiently fine resolution is needed to capture the variability of the urban hydrological processes. Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall is recognized to improve the estimation accuracy. This work explores the possibility to merge radar and rain gauge rainfall at coarser temporal resolutions to reduce uncertainty, and to downscale the results. A case study in the UK is used to cross-validate the methodology. Rainfall estimates merged and downscaled at different resolutions are compared. As expected, coarser resolutions tend to reduce uncertainty in terms of rainfall estimation. Additionally, an example of urban application in Twenterand, the Netherlands, is presented. The rainfall data from four rain gauge networks are merged with radar composites and used in an InfoWorks model reproducing the urban drainage system of Vroomshoop, a village in Twenterand. Fourteen combinations of accumulation and downscaling resolutions are tested in the InfoWorks model and the optimal is selected comparing the results to water level observations. The uncertainty is propagated in the InfoWorks model with ensembles. The results show that the uncertainty estimated by the ensemble spread is proportional to the rainfall intensity and dependent on the relative position between rainfall cells and measurement points.