Deformation mechanism in the core rockfill dams with heavy load and high-stress level is difficult to predict and control, which is one of the key problems to be solved in the dam operation safety management and control. Aiming at the large error problems obtained by the parameter-based functional models (regression model, grey theory model, etc.) in the deformation prediction of the core rockfill dams, a fractal prediction method and its technical process by combining the variable dimension fractal dimension and the "metabolism" of prediction data are proposed through analyzing the fractal adaptability and deformation characteristics of original monitoring data based on the resealed-range (R/S) method and fractal dimension theory. It effectively solves the error in the process of constant dimension fractal accumulation and transformation greatly in dam deformation prediction and provides a new way for dam safety monitoring deformation prediction and early warning. The trend analysis of deformation monitoring data of the Pubugou core rockfill dam and the deformation prediction show that the fractal prediction information of dam deformation has a good corresponding relationship with its physical causes, which is in line with the actual deformation trend and operation state of the dam. Compared with the traditional stepwise regression method, the prediction results obtained by the proposed method in this paper are of high accuracy, implying that the improved fractal prediction of dam deformation is effective and the Hurst fractal index is applicable in the evaluation of the dam deformation trend.

Rapid and accurate mapping of earthquake-triggered landslides from satellite imagery is critical for emergency response and hazard assessment, yet remains challenging due to irregular boundaries, extreme size variations, and atmospheric noise. This paper proposes BiFusion-LDSeg, a novel bi-directional fusion enhanced latent diffusion framework that synergistically combines CNN-Transformer architectures with generative diffusion models for robust landslide segmentation. The framework introduces three key innovations: (1) a dual-encoder with Bi-directional Attention Gates (Bi-AG) enabling sophisticated cross-modal feature calibration between local CNN textures and global Transformer context; (2) a conditional latent diffusion process operating in learned low-dimensional landslide shape manifolds, reducing computational complexity by 100× while enabling inference with only 10 sampling steps versus 1000+ in standard diffusion models; and (3) a boundary-aware progressive decoder employing multi-scale reverse attention mechanisms for precise boundary delineation. Comprehensive experiments on three earthquake datasets from Sichuan Province, China (Lushan Mw 7.0, Jiuzhaigou Mw 6.5, Luding Mw 6.8) demonstrate superior performance, outperforming state-of-the-art methods by 7–13% in IoU and 5–7% in DSC across all three datasets. The framework exhibits exceptional noise robustness, strong cross-dataset generalization, and inherent uncertainty quantification, enabling reliable deployment for post-earthquake landslide inventory mapping at regional scales.

Earthquake-induced landslide reactivation poses a sustained hazard for years following major seismic events, yet operational prediction remains constrained by heterogeneous multi-modal data, sparse supervision, and the absence of uncertainty-aware frameworks. This paper presents PIMSEL, a physically guided multi-modal semi-supervised framework for post-seismic landslide reactivation risk assessment. PIMSEL integrates satellite-derived morphological features, precipitation time series, and seismic hazard attributes through four components: entropy-regularized optimal transport for cross-modal semantic alignment without paired supervision; causally constrained hierarchical fusion enforcing domain-consistent modal weighting; scenario-based prototype mutation for semi-supervised learning from sparse expert annotations; and prototype-anchored variational graph clustering that simultaneously stratifies landslides into HIGH, MEDIUM, and LOW risk tiers and produces decomposed aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimates for operational triage. The HIGH risk tier operationally corresponds to predicted reactivation, validated against 598 documented reactivation events across 7482 co-seismic landslides from three Sichuan Province earthquake sequences: the 2013 Lushan (Mw 7.0), 2017 Jiuzhaigou (Mw 7.0), and 2022 Luding (Mw 6.8) events. PIMSEL achieves 82.5% reactivation recall and 66.4% precision, outperforming twelve baselines across clustering quality, classification, and uncertainty calibration metrics. Ablation studies confirm that optimal transport alignment contributes the largest individual performance gain. Current limitations include quarterly assessment frequency and dependence on optical imagery under cloud cover, which future integration of real-time meteorological triggers and SAR data should address.