Rapid climate changes may potentially have strong impacts on the ecosystem structure and nutrient dynamics of lakes as well as implications for water quality. We used a space-for-time approach to elucidate such possible effects by comparing data from 1656 shallow lakes (mean depth 100 µg L⁻¹) in the FL lakes, but coverage was higher in the DK lakes at low TP. We also found lower oxygen saturation in the nutrient-rich FL lakes than in the DK lakes, suggesting lower net ecosystem production in the FL lakes. We discuss our results within the framework of climate warming.

Because warming water temperatures have widespread consequences for freshwater communities, we were interested in estimating the patterns and rates of change of near-surface summer water temperatures in United States lakes. We developed multiple regression models to relate daily surface water temperatures in lakes of the conterminous United States to 8-day average air temperatures, latitude, elevation, and sampling month and year using data from 5723 lake samples in the months of June-September during the period 1981–2018. Our model explained 79% of the variation with a root-mean-square error of 1.69 °C. We predicted monthly average near-surface water temperatures for 1033 lakes for each year from 1981 through 2018. Lakes across the conterminous United States have been warming for the period 1981–2018 at an average heating rate of 0.32 °C per decade for the summer months (June–September). The average summer warming from 1981–2018 would be the equivalent of a lake decreasing 259 m in elevation or moving 233 km south. On the basis of national air temperatures starting in 1895, it was inferred that lake water temperatures are variable from year to year and have been steadily increasing since 1964, but that maximum temperatures in the 1930s were just as warm as those in 2008–2018.

The goals of the study were: (i) To describe the distribution of summer near-surface water temperatures in lakes of the coterminous United States and southern Canada (ii) to determine the geographic, meteorological and limnological factors related to summer water temperatures and (iii) to develop and test predictive models for summer near-surface water temperatures. We used data from the United States National Lakes Assessments of 2007 and 2012 as well as data collected from several different studies of Canadian lakes. Using multiple regressions, we quantified the general observations that summer water temperatures decreased when going from south to north, from east to west, and from lower elevations to higher elevations. Our empirical model using 8-day average air temperatures, latitude, longitude, elevations and month was able to predict water temperatures in individual lakes on individual summer days with a standard deviation of 1.7 °C for United States lakes and 2.3 °C for lakes in the southern regions of Canada.

Field measurements of water quality in Iowa lakes contradict paleolimnological studies that used ²¹⁰Pb dating techniques in 33 lakes to infer accelerating eutrophication and sediment accumulation in recent decades. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing a series of water quality measurements taken in 24 of these lakes during the period 1972–2010. There was little change in the trophic state variables. Total phosphorus and algal chlorophylls did not increase, and Secchi depths did not decrease with no evidence that the lakes had become more eutrophic. Changes in daily sediment loads in the Raccoon River also did not match the paleolimnological inferred rates of soil erosion for the period 1905–2005, and an independent estimate of soil erosion rates showed a decline of 40% in the 1977 to 2012 period rather than an increase. We hypothesized that sediment mixing by benthivorous fish could be responsible for violating the basic assumption of ²¹⁰Pb sediment dating that the sediments are not disturbed once they are laid down. We developed a mathematical model that demonstrated that sediment mixing could lead to false inferences about sediment dates and sediment burial rates. This study raises the possibility that sediment mixing in Iowa lakes and similar shallow, eutrophic lakes with benthivorous fish may cause significant sediment mixing that can compromise dating using ²¹⁰Pb dating of sediment cores.