The main motivation of this research is to assess the trends of storm recurrence for the time period from 1979 up to 2020 and to analyze the connection between storminess and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices. This research contains information about the number of storms that occurred in seven Russian Seas, including the Black, Caspian, Barents, Kara, Bering Seas, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The analysis of wave climate and storm activity is based on the results of wave modeling by WAVEWATCH III with input NCEP/CFSR wind and ice data. The long-term significant wave height (SWH) maximum is 15.5 m in the Sea of Okhotsk and 16.5 m in the Bering Sea. Significant linear basin-wide positive trends in the number of storms were found in the Kara, Caspian, Bering, Okhotsk Seas, and in the Sea of Japan. The weak positive correlation was found only between the number of storms and North Pacific index in the Bering Sea and between the number of storms and Arctic oscillation index in the Barents Sea. For other seas, it is no connections between number of storms and large-scale atmospheric indices, therefore, storm activity in the inner and semi-closed seas is regulated by the local wind and ice conditions, basin orography and bathymetry.

Wind and wave conditions are limiting factors for economic activity, and it is very important to study the long-term variability of storm activity. The main motivation of this research is to assess the impact of wind variability on the storm activity in the Caspian Sea over the past 42 years. The paper presents the analysis of a number of storms based on the results of wave model WAVEWATCH III and the Peak Over Threshold method. The mean, maximum, and 95th percentile significant wave heights were analyzed by season. The highest waves were in the Middle Caspian Sea in winter. Detailed interannual and seasonal analyses of the number and duration of storm waves were performed for the whole Caspian Sea and its separate regions. Positive significant trends were found in the whole sea. Significant positive trends in the number and duration of storms were found for the North and Middle Caspian. In the South Caspian, the trends were negative and not significant. High correlations were found between the number of storms and events with wind speed > 10–14 m/s and 95th percentile wind speed. Positive trends in the number of storms in the Middle Caspian were caused by positive trends in extreme wind situations.

Over the past decades, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, including the Kara Sea, has been diminishing. This phenomenon has a direct impact on wind waves as the increased expansion of ice-free water influences wave height. Furthermore, alterations in the ice cover also lead to modifications in atmospheric circulation, necessitating a concurrent analysis of wind and waves to refine the understanding of their interrelationships. In this study, wave modeling data were employed using the WAVEWATCH III model and NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalyzes. Calculations were performed on a non-structural computational grid. The grid covers the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as the entire northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The spatial resolution varies from ~ 700 m for the coastal zone of the Kara Sea, to ~ 20 km in the open part of the Kara Sea, covering the period from January 1, 1979 to December 31, 2021. Subsequently, average significant wave heights (SWH), maximum SWH, and the 95th percentile of SWH were computed for each grid node on both monthly and yearly basis. The annual values were analyzed for trends and their significance. Calculations were conducted for both the entire period and ice-free period. Positive trends in annual mean values were observed throughout the sea, with the maximum trend occurring near the boundary with the Barents Sea, barely exceeding 0.2 m/10 years. The northern and northeastern parts of the sea were characterized by significant positive trends of the maximum SWH values. Maximum trend values for the 95th percentile of SWH were also evident in the northern part of the Kara Sea. For the ice-free period, maximum trend values were notable for both the annual mean and the 95th percentile of SWH in the northern part of the sea (maximum trend values are approximately 0.25 m/10 years and 0.5 m/10 years, respectively). Significant positive trends in the annual mean SWH were characteristic of the southern part of the sea, while the largest and significant trends for maximum wave heights were observed in the northeast. The assessment of the contribution of wind and ice regimes to the variability of wind waves remains a subject of discussion.

Despite numerous studies on Arctic wave climate changes associated with sea ice retreat, the spatiotemporal relationship between wind variability and significant wave heights in the Eurasian Arctic remains insufficiently understood. This study analyzes wave and wind variability in the Eurasian Arctic seas for 1979–2025 using the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The quality of the modeling was verified against satellite altimetry and buoy data; the average correlation coefficient exceeded 0.9, and the RMSE was 0.368 m. An analysis of 3-h significant wave height (Hs) and wind speed data revealed positive trends in mean annual Hs across the Arctic, with the strongest statistically significant increases in the Barents and Kara Seas. Extreme wave conditions (95th percentile) showed the largest growth in the Kara, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. During ice-free periods, significant trends were weaker and more localized, although positive trends persisted near the Northern Sea Route. Mean wind speed trends were generally positive but mostly statistically insignificant. The results provide a spatially consistent characterization of long-term changes in wind and wave climate under evolving sea-ice conditions and may be used to inform assessments of navigation conditions and associated risks along the Northern Sea Route.