Urbanization and industrial development in the Juárez Valley, Chihuahua, Mexico, have led to the abandonment and loss of productive agricultural areas. However, the extent and dynamics of this phenomenon are not precisely known due to the lack of updated information. Therefore, it is necessary to geospatially represent these changes over time and predict their probability of persistence into the future to provide decision-making tools for this border region of Mexico. Landsat images were processed, and random forest was applied as a classifier to obtain land uses from 1980 to 2020. The Land Change Modeler options in Terrset™ were executed to generate land use changes, persistence and probabilities. Results showed that urban, built-up areas gained 19,962 ha by 2020 while crops lost 1675 ha. Agricultural permanence has been consolidated over time (persistence until 2020 of 0.83), but evidence suggests that this persistence will decrease in the future due to urbanization (decreasing to 0.59 by 2100). This could jeopardize the availability of primary products and food, lead to land abandonment and exacerbate socio-demographic expansion in this vulnerable region.

Introduction: Triatoma recurva is a Trypanosoma cruzi vector whose distribution and biological development are determined by factors that may influence the transmission of trypanosomiasis to humans.Objective: To identify the potential spatial distribution of Triatoma recurve, as well as social factors determining its presence.Materials and methods: We used the MaxEnt software to construct ecological niche models while bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) were derived from the monthly values of temperature and precipitation to generate biologically significant variables. The resulting cartography was interpreted as suitable areas for T. recurva presence.Results: Our results showed that the precipitation during the driest month (Bio 14), the maximum temperature during the warmest month (Bio 5), and the altitude (Alt) and mean temperature during the driest quarter (Bio 9) determined T. recurva distribution area at a higher percentage evidencing its strong relationship with domestic and surrounding structures.Conclusions. This methodology can be used in other geographical contexts to locate potential sampling sites where these triatomines occur.