Background: Survival of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) subgroups in relation to the general population is poorly described. Data on the factors predicting long-term biochemical cure in MTC patients are nonexistent at a population level. A nationwide retrospective cohort study of MTC in Denmark from 1997 to 2014 was conducted, aiming to detect subgroups with survival similar to that of the general population and to identify prognostic factors for disease-specific survival and long-term biochemical cure. Methods: The study included 220 patients identified from the nationwide Danish MTC cohort between 1997 and 2014. As a representative sample of the general population, a reference population matched 50:1 to the MTC cohort was used. Results: Patients diagnosed with hereditary MTC by screening (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.5 [confidence interval (CI) 0.5–4.3]), patients without regional metastases (HR = 1.4 [CI 0.9–2.3]), and patients with stage I (HR = 1.3 [CI 0.6–3.1]), stage II (HR = 1.1 [CI 0.6–2.3]), and III (HR = 1.3 [CI 0.4–4.2]) disease had an overall survival similar to the reference population. On multivariate analysis, the presence of distant metastases (HR = 12.3 [CI 6.0–25.0]) predicted worse disease-specific survival, while the absence of regional lymph node metastases (odds ratio = 40.1 [CI 12.0–133.7]) was the only independent prognostic factor for long-term biochemical cure. Conclusions: Patients with hereditary MTC diagnosed by screening, patients without regional metastases, and patients with stages I, II, and III disease may have similar survival as the general population. The presence of distant metastases predicted worse disease-specific survival, while the absence of regional metastases predicted long-term biochemical cure.

Recent studies have shown a significant increase in the temporal trend of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) incidence. However, it remains unknown to which extent sporadic medullary thyroid carcinoma (SMTC) and hereditary MTC (HMTC) affect the MTC incidence over time. We conducted a nationwide retrospective study using previously describedRETand MTC cohorts combined with review of medical records, pedigree comparison and relevant nationwide registries. The study included 474 MTC patients diagnosed in Denmark between 1960 and 2014. In the nationwide period from 1997 to 2014, we recorded a mean age-standardized incidence of all MTC, SMTC and HMTC of 0.19, 0.13 and 0.06 per 100,000 per year, respectively. The average annual percentage change in incidence for all MTC, SMTC and HMTC were 1.0 (P = 0.542), 2.8 (P = 0.125) and −3.1 (P = 0.324), respectively. The corresponding figures for point prevalence at January 1, 2015 were 3.8, 2.5 and 1.3 per 100,000, respectively. The average annual percentage change in prevalence from 1998 to 2015 for all MTC, SMTC and HMTC was 2.8 (P < 0.001), 3.8 (P < 0.001) and 1.5 (P = 0.010), respectively. We found no significant change in the incidence of all MTC, SMTC and HMTC possibly due to our small sample size. However, due to an increasing trend in the incidence of all MTC and opposing trends of SMTC (increasing) and HMTC (decreasing) incidence, it seems plausible that an increase for all MTC seen by others may be driven by the SMTC group rather than the HMTC group.

Context: The A883F germline mutation of the rearranged during transfection (RET) proto-oncogene causes multiple endocrine neoplasia 2B. In the revised American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines for the management of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), the A883F mutation has been reclassified from the highest to the high-risk level, although no well-defined risk profile for this mutation exists. Objective: To create a risk profile for the A883F mutation for appropriate classification among the ATA risk levels. Design: Retrospective analysis. Setting: International collaboration. Patients: Included were 13 A883F carriers. Intervention: The intervention was thyroidectomy. Main Outcome Measures: Earliest age of MTC, regional lymph node metastases, distant metastases, age-related penetrance of MTC and pheochromocytoma (PHEO), overall and disease-specific survival, and biochemical cure rate. Results: One and three carriers were diagnosed at age 7 to 9 years (median, 7.5 years) with a normal thyroid and C-cell hyperplasia, respectively. Nine carriers were diagnosed with MTC at age 10 to 39 years (median, 19 years). The earliest age of MTC, regional lymph node metastasis, and distant metastasis was 10, 20, and 20 years, respectively. Fifty percent penetrance of MTC and PHEO was achieved by age 19 and 34 years, respectively. Five- and 10-year survival rates (both overall and disease specific) were 88% and 88%, respectively. Biochemical cure for MTC at latest follow-up was achieved in 63% (five of eight carriers) with pertinent data. Conclusions: MTC of A883F carriers seems to have a more indolent natural course compared with that of M918T carriers. Our results support the classification of the A883F mutation in the ATA high-risk level.