A novel dynamic model for the temperature inside buildings is presented, aiming to improve energy efficiency by providing predictive information on the heat demand. To analyse the performance and generalizability of the modelling approach, real measurement data was gathered from five different types of buildings. Easily available data from various sources was utilized. The chosen model structure leads to a minimal number of input variables and free parameters. Simulations with real data from five buildings, and applying the identical model structure showed that the average modelling error during the 28-h prediction horizon was constantly below 5%. The results thus demonstrate that the model structure can be standardized and easily applied to predict the indoor temperatures of large buildings. This would finally enable demand side management and the predictive optimization of the heat demand at city level.

Implementation of new energy efficiency measures for the heating and building sectors is of utmost importance. Demand side management offers means to involve individual buildings in the optimization of the heat demand at city level to improve energy efficiency. In this work, two models were applied to forecast the heat demand from individual buildings up to a city-wide area. District heating data at the city level from more than 4000 different buildings was utilized in the validation of the forecast models. Forecast simulations with the applied models and measured data showed that, during the heating season, the relative error of the city level heat demand forecast for 48 h was 4% on average. In individual buildings, the accuracy of the models varied based on the building type and heat demand pattern. The forecasting accuracy, the limited amount of measurement information and the short time required for model calibration enable the models to be applied to the whole building stock. This should enable demand side management and lead to the predictive optimization of heat demand at city level, leading to increased energy efficiency.

Easily adaptable indoor temperature and heat demand models were applied in the predictive optimization of the heat demand at the city level to improve energy efficiency in heating. Real measured district heating data from 201 large buildings, including apartment buildings, schools and commercial, public, and office buildings, was utilized. Indoor temperature and heat demand of all 201 individual buildings were modelled and the models were applied in the optimization utilizing two different optimization strategies. Results demonstrate that the applied modelling approach enables the utilization of buildings as short-term heat storages in the optimization of the heat demand leading to significant improvements in energy efficiency both at the city level and in individual buildings.

Here is information on how to publish, spread your research, and search for your publications. Most of LiU's research publications are directly imported into DiVA from the Web of Science. Before registering a publication, always check if the publication is already in DiVA!

Here is information on how to publish, spread your research, and search for your publications. Most of LiU's research publications are directly imported into DiVA from the Web of Science. Before registering a publication, always check if the publication is already in DiVA!