Significance: Jordan is facing an unfolding water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and conflict-induced refugee influxes. We present a freshwater security analysis for the country, enabled by an integrated systems model that combines simulation of Jordan’s natural and built water environment with thousands of representative human agents determining water allocation and use decisions. Our analysis points to severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in Jordan’s freshwater security. Without intervening measures, over 90% of Jordan’s low-income population will be experiencing critical water insecurity by the end of the century. To gain a foothold on its water future, Jordan must enact an ambitious portfolio of interventions that span supply- and demand-side measures, including large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water-sector reform.

Jordan faces an archetypal combination of high water scarcity, with a per capita water availability of around 150 m³ per year significantly below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 m³, and strong population growth, especially due to the Syrian refugee crisis. A transition to more sustainable water consumption patterns will likely require Jordan’s water authorities to rely more strongly on water demand management in the future. We conduct a case study of the effects of pricing policies, using an agent-based model of household water consumption in Jordan’s capital Amman, in order to analyze the distribution of burdens imposed by demand-side policies across society. Amman’s households face highly intermittent piped water supply, leading them to supplement it with water from storage tanks and informal private tanker operators. Using a detailed data set of the distribution of supply durations across Amman, our model can derive the demand for additional tanker water. We find that integrating these different supply sources into our model causes demand-side policies to have strongly heterogeneous effects across districts and income groups. This highlights the importance of a disaggregated perspective on water policy impacts in order to identify and potentially mitigate excessive burdens.

Scarce and unreliable urban water supply in many countries has caused municipal users to rely on transfers from rural wells via unregulated markets. Assessments of this pervasive water re-allocation institution and its impacts on aquifers, consumer equity and affordability are lacking. We present a rigorous coupled human–natural system analysis of rural-to-urban tanker water market supply and demand in Jordan, a quintessential example of a nation relying heavily on such markets, fed by predominantly illegal water abstractions. Employing a shadow-economic approach validated using multiple data types, we estimate that unregulated water sales exceed government licences 10.7-fold, equalling 27% of the groundwater abstracted above sustainable yields. These markets supply 15% of all drinking water at high prices, account for 52% of all urban water revenue and constrain the public supply system’s ability to recover costs. We project that household reliance on tanker water will grow 2.6-fold by 2050 under population growth and climate change. Our analysis suggests that improving the efficiency and equity of public water supply is needed to ensure water security while avoiding uncontrolled groundwater depletion by growing tanker markets.

Arid developing countries face growing challenges from water scarcity, which are exacerbated by deficient piped water supply infrastructures. Increasing block tariffs (IBTs), charging higher rates with increasing water consumption, can potentially reconcile cost recovery to finance these infrastructures with an equitable and affordable sharing of the cost burden. A firm understanding of the impacts of varying prices and socio-economic conditions on residential water demand is necessary for designing IBTs that promote these objectives. Consistently estimating water demand under an IBT requires a discrete/continuous choice (DCC) model. Despite this, few econometric studies of arid developing countries have applied this state-of-the-art approach. This paper applies a DCC model to estimate residential water demand under IBTs in the severely water-stressed country of Jordan, using 15,811 country-wide household-level observations from five years up to 2013. We extend Hewitt and Hanemann’s original DCC formulation in order to accommodate IBTs featuring a linearly progressive tariff block. We then use the resulting demand function to assess Jordan’s 2013 IBTs and alternative IBT designs. Under the estimated price elasticities, very few IBT designs achieve a full recovery of the financial costs of water provision, but we still identify a potential to improve cost recovery and affordability.

Integrated assessment of decisions under uncertainty for sustainable development (IANUS) is a method for aiding public decisionmaking that supports efforts towards sustainable development and has a wide range of applications. We introduce the main features of IANUS and illustrate the method by using the results of a case study in the Torgau region (eastern Germany) with conflicts over economic development and groundwater protection in the Elbe River basin. IANUS structures the decision process into four steps: scenario derivation, criteria selection, modelling, and evaluation. Its overall aim is to support the finding of policy solutions in a participatory setting and to extract the information needed for a sound, responsible decision in a clear, transparent manner. The method is designed for use in conflict situations where environmental and socioeconomic effects need to be considered and so an interdisciplinary approach is required. Special emphasis is placed on a broad perception and consideration of uncertainty. Three types of uncertainty are explicitly taken into account by IANUS: development uncertainty (uncertainty about the social, economic and other developments that affect the consequences of decision), model uncertainty (uncertainty associated with the prediction of the effects of decisions), and weight uncertainty (uncertainty about the appropriate weighting of the criteria). The backbone of IANUS is a multicriteria method with the ability to process uncertain information. In the case study the multicriteria method PROMETHEE is used. As PROMETHEE in its basic versions is not able to process uncertain information an extension of this method is developed here and described in detail. One methodological lesson to be learned from the experience of the case study reads that the design of the participation process must be planned and executed carefully to prevent important stakeholders backing out of the participatory evaluation process—as happened with the decisionmakers in the Torgau case study.

Many private households spend considerable amounts of time accessing water, for instance by walking to and queuing at public access points, or by filling storage vessels at taps with low flow rates. This time has an opportunity cost, which can be substantial and may impact which water services and quantities of water households demand. In a novel form of diary study, we gathered detailed water consumption and time use data from 50 households in five informal settlements of the Indian metropolis Pune, accompanied by a household survey and in-depth interviews. With the data, we characterize water collection behaviors and assign monetary values to water procurement time. We statistically analyze the effects of time cost on consumed quantities in several two-level mixed-effect models. Household members in our sample spend up to several hours each day filling storage vessels, even if a private connection to the piped network is available. Average time cost amounted to the equivalent of 4.23–13.81% of monthly household cash income. Our analyses indicate that procurement time reduces quantitative water demand in a significant way. The households incurring the highest per-unit time cost consumed water quantities below minimum levels recommended for human health. This substantiates that time costs can impede access to water and are a relevant issue for water management and policy.