Maintaining a supply–demand balance of ecosystem services (ES) is essential for enhancing the effectiveness of ecosystem restoration. However, inappropriate land use and reforestation practices can negatively impact this balance. In this study, the ES balance of the Saihanba region in China was quantified by integrating land use/cover change (LUCC) data, landscape metrics, and ES indicators. The relationship between ES balance and its driving factors was analyzed using spatial panel models. The spatiotemporal changes of landscape patterns from 2002 to 2020 were also explored. The results indicated that the overall ES supply capacity of the study region, especially in the southwestern area, increased during the research period. The ES balance and its determining factors exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects. Large–scale afforestation increased the local ES supply and provided economic benefits, but it also led to ecological issues, including declines in wetland area and landscape fragmentation. Our study emphasized the importance of considering the supply–demand balance in the planning and decision–making of ES, providing insight into multifunctional management and the sustainable development in the Saihanba area.