The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the most developed regions in China. This is also a flood-prone area where flood disasters are frequently experienced; the situations between the people–land nexus and the people–water nexus are very complicated. Therefore, the accurate assessment of flood risk is of great significance to regional development. The paper took the YRD urban agglomeration as the research case. The driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (DPSIR) conceptual framework was established to analyze the indexes of flood disasters. The random forest (RF) algorithm was used to screen important indexes of floods risk, and a risk assessment model based on the radial basis function (RBF) neural network was constructed to evaluate the flood risk level in this region from 2009 to 2018. The risk map showed the I-V level of flood risk in the YRD urban agglomeration from 2016 to 2018 by using the geographic information system (GIS). Further analysis indicated that the indexes such as flood season rainfall, urban impervious area ratio, gross domestic product (GDP) per square kilometer of land, water area ratio, population density and emergency rescue capacity of public administration departments have important influence on flood risk. The flood risk has been increasing in the YRD urban agglomeration during the past ten years under the urbanization background, and economic development status showed a significant positive correlation with flood risks. In addition, there were serious differences in the rising rate of flood risks and the status quo among provinces. There are still a few cities that have stabilized at a better flood-risk level through urban flood control measures from 2016 to 2018. These results were basically in line with the actual situation, which validated the effectiveness of the model. Finally, countermeasures and suggestions for reducing the urban flood risk in the YRD region were proposed, in order to provide decision support for flood control, disaster reduction and emergency management in the YRD region.
The coupling and coordination development of the environment and economy (CC2E) is one of the most vital issues to sustainable development. This paper adopted the coupling coordination model, projection pursuit algorithm, and random forest model to explore the spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the CC2E in the Yangtze River Delta from 2015 to 2019, respectively. The results showed that: (1) The degree of coupling coordination (DCC) of the CC2E in most cities of the Yangtze River Delta has risen from primary coordination to intermediate coordination. (2) In the spatial perspective, the distribution of DCC is correlated with geographical location. The value of DCC in the western region was significantly lower than that of the eastern cities. (3) The influencing factors results showed that the GDP in the economic subsystem and the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in the environmental subsystem were the most influencing factors of DCC in the Yangtze River Delta. The established index system of CC2E and the measurements of CC2E provide a new idea for how to achieve sustainable development. Meanwhile, this study can provide recommendations for formulating the environmental protection and economic development policy.
30 April 2024 in International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
The research on urban flood resilience will contribute to building a more resilient city and provide valuable reference for municipal decision-makers. There are many frameworks and approaches for empirical studies on what constitutes urban flood resilience and how to evaluate it. In this study, a typical region suffering from flood disaster in China-Jiangsu Province was selected as the study area, including 13 prefecture-level cities. The pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, the projection pursuit based on real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution based on the Kullback-Leibler distance (KL-TOPSIS) were combined to develop a hybrid multi-criteria approach for assessing urban flood resilience. Then the grey relational analysis obtained the important factors. The results illustrate that (1) the development of each subsystem in the city is uncoordinated, that is, the pressure-subsystem has little influence on urban flood resilience, while the state-subsystem and the response-subsystem have great influence. (2) The urban flood resilience in Jiangsu Province presents obvious polarization trend, that is, Southern Jiangsu is more resilient than Northern Jiangsu. The underlying factors are closely related to the level of economic development. Furthermore, the proposed method provides a practical evaluation approach for other fields.
Water, energy and food are the basic resources for human survival and development. The coordination development of water-energy-food (W-E-F) is of great significance to promote regional sustainable development. In this study, Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang) was selected as the research case, and an evaluation index system was constructed to assess the vulnerability and coordination of water-energy-food (W-E-F) system based on PSR model. Then, a coupled model based on cloud-matter element model and coordination degree model was proposed. The cloud-matter element model was adopted to evaluate the vulnerability level of W-E-F system. The coordination degree model was employed to calculate the coordination degrees of W-E-F system. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2015, the vulnerability levels of W-E-F system in Northwest China were mostly at Level 1. The coordination degrees of W-E-F system belonged to the transitional development level (II) in most years. The vulnerability and coordination problems of W-E-F system in Northwest China were severe. The comprehensive vulnerability index values of W-E-F system were generally on the rise, but far from reaching a good level. Moreover, the comprehensive vulnerability index values and coordination degrees of W-E-F system in Northwest China do not match well. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the coordinated development of water resource, energy and food in Northwest China were put forward.