In recent years, the vegetation cover in the Selinco region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has undergone significant changes due to the influence of global warming and intensified human activity. Consequently, comprehending the distribution and change patterns of vegetation in this area has become a crucial scientific concern. To address this concern, the present study employed MODIS-NDVI and elevation data, integrating methodologies such as trend analysis, Hurst exponent analysis, and sequential cluster analysis to explore vegetation cover changes over the past 21 years and predict future trends, while examining their correlation with topographic factors. The study findings indicate a fluctuating upward trend in vegetation cover, with a notable decrease in 2015. Spatially, the overall fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in the study area showed a basic stability with a percentage of 78%. The analysis of future trends in vegetation cover revealed that the majority of areas (68.26%) exhibited an uncertain trend, followed by stable regions at 15.78%. The proportion of areas showing an increase and decrease in vegetation cover accounted for only 9.63% and 5.61%, respectively. Elevation and slope significantly influence vegetation cover, with a trend of decreasing vegetation cover as elevation increases, followed by an increase, and then another decrease. Likewise, as the slope increases, initially, there is a rise in vegetation cover, followed by a subsequent decline. Notably, significant abrupt changes in vegetation cover are observed within the 4800 m elevation band and the 4° slope band in the Selinco region. Moreover, aspect has no significant effect on vegetation cover. These findings offer comprehensive insights into the spatial and temporal variations of vegetation cover in the Selinco region and their association with topographic factors, thus serving as a crucial reference for future research.

In recent years, vegetation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has undergone significant greening. However, the causal factors underpinning this phenomenon, whether attributable to temperature fluctuations, precipitation patterns, or anthropogenic interventions, remain a subject of extensive scholarly debate. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the evolving vegetation across the QTP. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Data Record Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NOAA CDR AVHRR NDVI) dataset was employed to elucidate the intricate relationship between climatic variables and human activities driving vegetative transformations. The findings were as follows: The NDVI on the QTP has exhibited a significant greening trend at a rate of 0.0013/a (per year). A minor decline, accounting for only 17.6% of grasslands, was observed, which was primarily concentrated in the northwestern and northern regions. Through residual analysis, climate change was found to be the predominant driver, explaining 70.6% of the vegetation variability across the plateau. Concurrently, noticeable trends in temperature and precipitation increases were observed on the QTP, with the southern region demonstrating improved sensitivity to precipitation alterations. In summary, these results substantiate that a confluence of climatic warming, enhanced moisture availability, and a reduction in livestock population collectively creates an environment conducive to enhanced vegetation vigor on the QTP. This study highlights the significance of acknowledging the dual influence of climate and human agency in shaping vegetative dynamics, which is a critical consideration for informed land management strategies and sustainable development initiatives on this ecologically pivotal plateau.