Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO₂ and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO₂ treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO₂. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.

Global warming and a changing precipitation regime could have a profound impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes, especially in arid and semiarid grasslands where water is limited. A field experiment manipulating temperature and precipitation has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China since 2005. A paired, nested experimental design was used, with increased precipitation as the primary factor and warming simulated by infrared radiators as the secondary factor. The results for the first 2 yr showed that gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was higher than ecosystem respiration, leading to net C sink (measured by net ecosystem CO(2) exchange, NEE) over the growing season in the study site. The interannual variation of NEE resulted from the difference in mean annual precipitation. Experimental warming reduced GEP and NEE, whereas increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C and water fluxes in both years. Increased precipitation also alleviated the negative effect of experimental warming on NEE. The results demonstrate that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating ecosystem C and water fluxes and their responses to climatic change in the temperate steppe of northern China.