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Drought has significant impacts on the agricultural productivity and well-being of Pacific Island communities. In this study, a user-centred integrated early warning system (I-EWS) for drought was investigated for Papua New Guinea (PNG). The I-EWS combines satellite products (Standardised Precipitation Index and Vegetation Health Index) with seasonal probabilistic forecasting outputs (chance of exceeding median rainfall). Internationally accepted drought thresholds for each of these inputs are conditionally combined to trigger three drought early warning stages—”DROUGHT WATCH”, “DROUGHT ALERT” and “DROUGHT EMERGENCY”. The developed I-EWS for drought was used to examine the evolution of a strong El Niño-induced drought event in 2015 as well as a weaker La Niña-induced dry period in 2020. Examining the evolution of drought early warnings at a provincial level, it was found that tailored warning lead times of 3–5 months could have been possible for several impacted PNG provinces. These lead times would enable increasingly proactive drought responses with the potential for prioritised allocation of funds at a provincial level. The methodology utilised within this study uses inputs that are openly and freely available globally which indicates promising potential for adaptation of the developed user-centred I-EWS in other Pacific Island Countries that are vulnerable to drought.
Jessica Bhardwaj; Yuriy Kuleshov; Zhi-Weng Chua; Andrew B. Watkins; Suelynn Choy; Qian (Chayn) Sun. Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 3307 .
AMA StyleJessica Bhardwaj, Yuriy Kuleshov, Zhi-Weng Chua, Andrew B. Watkins, Suelynn Choy, Qian (Chayn) Sun. Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (16):3307.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJessica Bhardwaj; Yuriy Kuleshov; Zhi-Weng Chua; Andrew B. Watkins; Suelynn Choy; Qian (Chayn) Sun. 2021. "Building Capacity for a User-Centred Integrated Early Warning System for Drought in Papua New Guinea." Remote Sensing 13, no. 16: 3307.
A trend towards drier conditions during the April to October ‘cool’ season across southern Australia has been observed in the past few decades. Frequent and prolonged droughts have a significant impact on the financial stability of affected farming communities. Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a novel proactive aid approach that provides support measures to increase resilience during the window between drought early warnings, and the actual onset and intensification of drought. Using the Northern Murray-Darling Basin as a case study, we investigated whether FbF combined with a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought has the potential to increase the drought resilience of Australian farming communities. This study shows that farming businesses most impacted by drought have three common factors: (i) lower levels of business management skills, (ii) lower levels of pre-drought preparedness during non-drought periods, and (iii) slower responses when the intensity of drought increases. The results suggest that FbF in its current form is not recommended for a market economy such as Australia, as forms of direct assistance may have adverse long-term effects through disrupting the market itself and may not encourage farm operators to regularly assess and adapt their drought management strategies. Results also suggest that providing farmers, service providers, and all levels of government with tools that incorporate a user-centred I-EWS for drought can improve overall decision-making before, during, and even after drought. This change from a reactive to a proactive approach to managing drought impacts can be a highly effective form of increasing the drought resilience of farming communities.
Atifa Asghari; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Jessica Bhardwaj; Isabella Aitkenhead. Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable? Natural Hazards 2021, 1 -25.
AMA StyleAtifa Asghari, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew B. Watkins, Jessica Bhardwaj, Isabella Aitkenhead. Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable? Natural Hazards. 2021; ():1-25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAtifa Asghari; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Jessica Bhardwaj; Isabella Aitkenhead. 2021. "Improving drought resilience in Northern Murray-Darling Basin farming communities: Is forecast-based financing suitable?" Natural Hazards , no. : 1-25.
Evidence of the rapid degradation of the Earth’s natural environment has grown in recent years
Yuei-An Liou; Yuriy Kuleshov; Chung-Ru Ho; Kim-Anh Nguyen; Steven Reising. Preface: Earth Observations for Environmental Sustainability for the Next Decade. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 2871 .
AMA StyleYuei-An Liou, Yuriy Kuleshov, Chung-Ru Ho, Kim-Anh Nguyen, Steven Reising. Preface: Earth Observations for Environmental Sustainability for the Next Decade. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (15):2871.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuei-An Liou; Yuriy Kuleshov; Chung-Ru Ho; Kim-Anh Nguyen; Steven Reising. 2021. "Preface: Earth Observations for Environmental Sustainability for the Next Decade." Remote Sensing 13, no. 15: 2871.
Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) signals in the radio occultation (RO) technique using new measurements from constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere & climate (COSMIC-2) mission were observed very deep below the Earth's limb. Selected occultations collocated with severe tropical cyclones showed the existence of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) variations at or below -200 km in terms of height of straight line (HSL) connecting a pair of occulting satellites. The presence of such signals is considered as indicative of sharp inversion layers associated with planetary boundary layer. We investigate the potential application of deep occultation signals for detection of tropical cyclones often resulting in strong vertical gradients of refractivity. The most prominent deep signatures computed using 1 s running mean filter can reach 400 V/V, whereas the majority of deep signals exceed the noise level by a factor of two. The cross-satellite interference is important mechanism affecting the structure of deep signals, especially for global positioning system (GPS) occultations.
Pawel Hordyniec; Yuriy Kuleshov; Suelynn Choy; Robert Norman. Observation of Deep Occultation Signals in Tropical Cyclones With COSMIC-2 Measurements. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 2021, PP, 1 -5.
AMA StylePawel Hordyniec, Yuriy Kuleshov, Suelynn Choy, Robert Norman. Observation of Deep Occultation Signals in Tropical Cyclones With COSMIC-2 Measurements. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters. 2021; PP (99):1-5.
Chicago/Turabian StylePawel Hordyniec; Yuriy Kuleshov; Suelynn Choy; Robert Norman. 2021. "Observation of Deep Occultation Signals in Tropical Cyclones With COSMIC-2 Measurements." IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters PP, no. 99: 1-5.
The Northern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is a key Australian agricultural region requiring efficient Agricultural Drought Management (ADM), focused on resilience. Although a need for resilience in local farming communities has long been recognised, previous studies assessing ADM in the Northern MDB did not consider two key elements of resilient management: proactivity (preparing for drought prior to a drought event) and suitability (localised drought management targeted at decision-makers). This study assessed the current ADM Strategy (ADMS) implemented within five selected Northern MDB Local Government Areas (LGAs) (Paroo Shire, Balonne Shire, Murweh Shire, Maranoa Region, and Goondiwindi Region), specifically investigating the extent of ADMS proactivity, effectiveness, and suitability. To investigate suitability, drought risk extent of each LGA was determined. A region-specific drought risk index consisting of hazard, vulnerability and exposure indices was developed; risk mapping was conducted. All LGAs displayed very high levels of drought risk due to hazardous climatic conditions, vulnerable socio-economic attributes, and drought-exposed geographical features. A Criteria-Based Ranking (CBR) survey produced a quantitative effectiveness and proactivity rank for each major ADMS used in the Northern MDB. Government Assistance was the most proactive and effective ADMS. Strategy effectiveness ranks of the major ADMS used and drought risk extent found in each LGA were correlated to determine ADMS suitability. Overall, Balonne Shire and the Goondiwindi Region were identified as high priority areas requiring improved ADM. A user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought could potentially increase ADM proactivity and suitability in such areas, strengthening drought resilience of farming communities.
Isabella Aitkenhead; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Jessica Bhardwaj; Atifa Asghari. Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray–Darling Basin. Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands) 2021, 1 -31.
AMA StyleIsabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew B. Watkins, Jessica Bhardwaj, Atifa Asghari. Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray–Darling Basin. Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands). 2021; ():1-31.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIsabella Aitkenhead; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Jessica Bhardwaj; Atifa Asghari. 2021. "Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray–Darling Basin." Natural Hazards (Dordrecht, Netherlands) , no. : 1-31.
Climate risk and resultant natural disasters have significant impacts on human and natural environments. It is common for disaster responses to be reactive rather than proactive due to inadequate policy and planning mechanisms—such reactive management responses exacerbate human and economic losses in times of disaster. Proactive disaster responses maximize disaster resilience and preparation efforts in non-disaster periods. This report focuses on proactive, localized, and inclusive adaptation strategies for addressing impacts of three natural hazards: drought, floods, and tropical cyclones. Four key synergistic climate adaptation strategies are discussed—Post Disaster Reviews, Risk Assessments, Early Warning Systems and Forecast-based Financing. These strategies are further supported with a number of case studies and recommendations that will be of assistance for policymakers in developing evidence-based adaptation strategies that support the most vulnerable communities in the transition towards regarding disaster as a risk as opposed to a crisis.
Jessica Bhardwaj; Atifa Asghari; Isabella Aitkenhead; Madeleine Jackson; Yuriy Kuleshov. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities. Climate Change Solutions 2021, 18, 1 .
AMA StyleJessica Bhardwaj, Atifa Asghari, Isabella Aitkenhead, Madeleine Jackson, Yuriy Kuleshov. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities. Climate Change Solutions. 2021; 18 (02):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJessica Bhardwaj; Atifa Asghari; Isabella Aitkenhead; Madeleine Jackson; Yuriy Kuleshov. 2021. "Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities." Climate Change Solutions 18, no. 02: 1.
The authors wish to make the following correction to this paper
Zhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins. Correction: Chua, Z., et al. Drought Detection Over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sens. 2020, 12(23), 3859. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 724 .
AMA StyleZhi-Weng Chua, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew B. Watkins. Correction: Chua, Z., et al. Drought Detection Over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sens. 2020, 12(23), 3859. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (4):724.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins. 2021. "Correction: Chua, Z., et al. Drought Detection Over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sens. 2020, 12(23), 3859." Remote Sensing 13, no. 4: 724.
Drought frequently impacts both the agricultural productivity and the well-being of farming communities in drought-prone areas of Australia, including the largest agricultural region in the country—the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Improving drought preparedness of farming communities in the MDB could be achieved by building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought. In this study, a prospective I-EWS was investigated. Farming individuals were interviewed to inductively guide the selection of drought-related indices most appropriate for the study area. Based on interview results and desktop research, five drought-related indices directly relevant to the MDB were selected as inputs to the trigger levels for an I-EWS: the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Vegetation Health Index, Soil Moisture (percent of normal), the likelihood of exceeding median rainfall in a coming month, and the chance of El Niño. Based on these inputs, decision rules were formulated for a staged “WATCH,” “ALERT” and “DECLARATION” drought early warnings. These decision rules were tested for the intense dry period from 2017 to 2019 for five key agricultural Local Government Areas in the Northern MDB. It was found that all three stages of the drought I-EWS were adequately triggered, indicating that a warning lead time of 3–8 months could have been possible in the dry period. Data for the selected inputs are readily obtained from space-based products as well as national meteorological services and would be applicable to regions with limited observing networks or forecast capability. Thus, while the methodologies developed in this study and the resultant outcomes are tailored to the Northern MDB, this research ultimately serves as both a successful proof of concept for the drought EWS as well as a foundational base for the design of an operational user-centred I-EWS in susceptible to drought regions of Australia and other countries.
Jessica Bhardwaj; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Isabella Aitkenhead; Atifa Asghari. Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin. Natural Hazards 2021, 107, 97 -122.
AMA StyleJessica Bhardwaj, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew B. Watkins, Isabella Aitkenhead, Atifa Asghari. Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin. Natural Hazards. 2021; 107 (1):97-122.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJessica Bhardwaj; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew B. Watkins; Isabella Aitkenhead; Atifa Asghari. 2021. "Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin." Natural Hazards 107, no. 1: 97-122.
This study evaluates the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) Demonstration Project precipitation products over Papua New Guinea (PNG). The products evaluated were based on remotely-sensed precipitation, vegetation health, soil moisture, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. The satellite precipitation estimates of the Climate Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (CPC/NOAA) morphing technique (CMORPH) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) were assessed on a monthly timescale over an 18-year period from 2001 to 2018. Station data along with the ERA5 reanalysis were used as the reference datasets for assessment purposes. In addition, a case study was performed to investigate how well the SWCEM precipitation products characterised drought in PNG associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño. Overall statistics from the validation study suggest that although there remains significant variability between satellite and ERA5 rainfall data in remote areas, this difference is much less at locations where rain gauges exist. The case study illustrated that the Vegetation Health Index (VHI), OLR anomaly and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were able to reliably capture the spatial and temporal aspects of the severe 2015–2016 El Niño-induced drought in PNG. Of the three, VHI appeared to be the most effective, in part due to its reduced incidence of false alarms. This study is novel as modern-day satellite-derived products have not been evaluated over PNG before. A focus on their value in monitoring drought can bring great value in mitigating the impact of future droughts. It is concluded that these satellite-derived precipitation products could be recommended for operational use for drought detection and monitoring in PNG, and that even a modest increase in ground-based observations will increase the accuracy of satellite-derived observations remotely.
Zhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew Watkins. Drought Detection over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 3859 .
AMA StyleZhi-Weng Chua, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew Watkins. Drought Detection over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12 (23):3859.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew Watkins. 2020. "Drought Detection over Papua New Guinea Using Satellite-Derived Products." Remote Sensing 12, no. 23: 3859.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.
Yuriy Kuleshov; Paul Gregory; Andrew B. Watkins; Robert J. B. Fawcett. Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries. Natural Hazards 2020, 104, 1295 -1313.
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov, Paul Gregory, Andrew B. Watkins, Robert J. B. Fawcett. Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries. Natural Hazards. 2020; 104 (2):1295-1313.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov; Paul Gregory; Andrew B. Watkins; Robert J. B. Fawcett. 2020. "Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries." Natural Hazards 104, no. 2: 1295-1313.
As climate change has been of great concern worldwide for many years, addressing global climate challenges is the most significant task for humanity
Yuei-An Liou; Yuriy Kuleshov; Chung-Ru Ho; Jean-Pierre Barriot; Chyi-Tyi Lee. Preface: Earth Observations for Addressing Global Challenges. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 841 .
AMA StyleYuei-An Liou, Yuriy Kuleshov, Chung-Ru Ho, Jean-Pierre Barriot, Chyi-Tyi Lee. Preface: Earth Observations for Addressing Global Challenges. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12 (5):841.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuei-An Liou; Yuriy Kuleshov; Chung-Ru Ho; Jean-Pierre Barriot; Chyi-Tyi Lee. 2020. "Preface: Earth Observations for Addressing Global Challenges." Remote Sensing 12, no. 5: 841.
This study evaluates the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) satellite precipitation estimates over Australia across an 18 year period from 2001 to 2018. The evaluation was performed on a monthly time scale and used both point and gridded rain gauge data as the reference dataset. Overall statistics demonstrated that satellite precipitation estimates did exhibit skill over Australia and that gauge-blending yielded a notable increase in performance. Dependencies of performance on geography, season, and rainfall intensity were also investigated. The skill of satellite precipitation detection was reduced in areas of elevated topography and where cold frontal rainfall was the main precipitation source. Areas where rain gauge coverage was sparse also exhibited reduced skill. In terms of seasons, the performance was relatively similar across the year, with austral summer (DJF) exhibiting slightly better performance. The skill of the satellite precipitation estimates was highly dependent on rainfall intensity. The highest skill was obtained for moderate rainfall amounts (2–4 mm/day). There was an overestimation of low-end rainfall amounts and an underestimation in both the frequency and amount for high-end rainfall. Overall, CMORPH and GSMaP datasets were evaluated as useful sources of satellite precipitation estimates over Australia.
Zhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew Watkins. Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 678 .
AMA StyleZhi-Weng Chua, Yuriy Kuleshov, Andrew Watkins. Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12 (4):678.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhi-Weng Chua; Yuriy Kuleshov; Andrew Watkins. 2020. "Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia." Remote Sensing 12, no. 4: 678.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most dangerous weather phenomena to regularly affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Historical records demonstrate significant inter-annual variability in TC frequency and spatial distribution of cyclone tracks; consequently, the year-to-year impact of TCs on countries varies. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is one of the key global climate drivers which affects TC occurrences in the SH; however, there are other important large-scale environmental factors which contribute to inter-annual and intra-annual TC variability. Additionally, climate is changing on a global scale and it is important to understand how a warmer climate may affect TC activity. Since 1999 several academic, research and operational agencies from countries of the SH combined their efforts in improving our understanding of changes in regional TC activity due to natural variability and climate change, and established the “Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones” International Initiative. The Initiative’s overarching strategy is to provide science-based information for enhancing TC early warning systems and assist with decision making in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. As a result of these multi-national efforts, the first consolidated regional database of historical TC data for the SH (satellite-era, i.e. 1970 to present) was created; influence of global climate drivers on TC variability was investigated; a comprehensive TC climatology for the SH and skillful TC seasonal prediction models were developed. This publication highlights major achievements of this International Initiative over the past two decades. It also includes a brief description of the Tropical Cyclone Data Portal helping readers to learn quickly how to use this web-based information tool for examining historical TC activity over the regions of interests.
Yuriy Kuleshov. Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative: Twenty Years of Successful Regional Cooperation. Climate Change Management 2020, 411 -439.
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov. Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative: Twenty Years of Successful Regional Cooperation. Climate Change Management. 2020; ():411-439.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov. 2020. "Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative: Twenty Years of Successful Regional Cooperation." Climate Change Management , no. : 411-439.
Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and climate extremes, including drought. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), severe drought caused by the strong El Niño in 2015–2016 affected about 40% of the population, with almost half a million people impacted by food shortages. Recognizing the urgency of enhancing early warning systems to assist vulnerable countries with climate change adaptation, the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) international initiative has been established. In this chapter, the CREWS-PNG project is described. The CREWS-PNG project aims to develop an improved drought monitoring and early warning system, running operationally through a collaboration between PNG National Weather Services (NWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization that will enable better strategic decision-making for agriculture, water management, health and other climate-sensitive sectors. It is shown that current dynamical climate models can provide skillful predictions of regional rainfall at least 3 months in advance. Dynamical climate model-based forecast products are disseminated through a range of Web-based information tools. It is demonstrated that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution to assist governments and local communities with informed decision-making in adaptation to climate variability and change.
Yuriy Kuleshov; Kasis Inape; Andrew B. Watkins; Adele Bear-Crozier; Zhi-Weng Chua; Pingping Xie; Takuji Kubota; Tomoko Tashima; Robert Stefanski; Toshiyuki Kurino. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea. Drought - Detection and Solutions 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov, Kasis Inape, Andrew B. Watkins, Adele Bear-Crozier, Zhi-Weng Chua, Pingping Xie, Takuji Kubota, Tomoko Tashima, Robert Stefanski, Toshiyuki Kurino. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea. Drought - Detection and Solutions. 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov; Kasis Inape; Andrew B. Watkins; Adele Bear-Crozier; Zhi-Weng Chua; Pingping Xie; Takuji Kubota; Tomoko Tashima; Robert Stefanski; Toshiyuki Kurino. 2020. "Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea." Drought - Detection and Solutions , no. : 1.
To improve monitoring of extreme weather and climate events from space, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiated the space-based weather and climate extremes monitoring demonstration project (SEMDP). Presently, SEMDP is focused on drought and heavy precipitation monitoring over Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Space-based data and derived products form critical part of meteorological services’ operations for weather monitoring; however, satellite products are still not fully utilized for climate applications. Using SEMDP satellite-derived precipitation products, it would be possible to monitor extreme precipitation events with uniform spatial coverage and over various time periods – pentad, weekly, 10 days, monthly and longer time-scales. In this chapter, SEMDP satellite-derived precipitation products over the Asia-Pacific region produced by the Earth Observation Research Center/Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (EORC/JAXA) and the Climate Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC/NOAA) are introduced. Case studies for monitoring (i) drought in Australia in July-October 2007 and September 2018 and (ii) heavy precipitation over Australia in December 2010 and Thailand and the Peninsular Malaysia in November-December 2014 which caused widespread flooding are also presented. Satellite observations are compared with in situ data to demonstrate value of satellite-derived estimates of precipitation for drought and heavy rainfall monitoring.
Yuriy Kuleshov; Toshiyuki Kurino; Takuji Kubota; Tomoko Tashima; Pingping Xie. WMO Space-Based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP): First Outcomes of Regional Cooperation on Drought and Heavy Precipitation Monitoring for Australia and Southeast Asia. Rainfall - Extremes, Distribution and Properties 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov, Toshiyuki Kurino, Takuji Kubota, Tomoko Tashima, Pingping Xie. WMO Space-Based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP): First Outcomes of Regional Cooperation on Drought and Heavy Precipitation Monitoring for Australia and Southeast Asia. Rainfall - Extremes, Distribution and Properties. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov; Toshiyuki Kurino; Takuji Kubota; Tomoko Tashima; Pingping Xie. 2019. "WMO Space-Based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring Demonstration Project (SEMDP): First Outcomes of Regional Cooperation on Drought and Heavy Precipitation Monitoring for Australia and Southeast Asia." Rainfall - Extremes, Distribution and Properties , no. : 1.
Variable selection for short-term forecasting (up to 72 h) of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has been investigated. IBTrACS data (1979–2014) are used to identify the genesis time and position of over 2500 TCs between 30°N and 30°S. Tracks are extended using a tropical cloud cluster (TCC) dataset, which is also used to identify over 28 000 nondeveloping TCCs. Subsequently, corresponding local environment states at various atmospheric pressure levels are retrieved from ERA-Interim data. An initial selection of potentially favorable variables for TC genesis is made based on mutual information, which forms the set of nodes for graphical model structure learning using the Peter–Clark (PC) algorithm. Structure learning identifies the variables with the strongest influence on TC genesis, while taking into account the interrelationship with other variables. Variables are ranked based on the maximum observed p value in all (conditional) independence tests of the variable with the TC genesis node. The results indicate that potential vorticity (600 hPa), relative vorticity (925 hPa), and (vector) vertical wind shear (200–700 hPa) are the highest ranked variables for forecasting up to 72 h. These are followed by the basin and zonal wind speed (200 hPa), and for very short lead-time divergence (925 hPa), air temperature (300 hPa), and average vertical velocity. Predictive modeling with logistic regression confirms the superior performance of the top-ranked variables. The presented variable ranking (methodology) can be used as a building block for the creation of genesis indices or predictive models in the future.
Jasper Wijnands; Guoqi Qian; Yuriy Kuleshov. Variable Selection for Tropical Cyclogenesis Predictive Modeling. Monthly Weather Review 2016, 144, 4605 -4619.
AMA StyleJasper Wijnands, Guoqi Qian, Yuriy Kuleshov. Variable Selection for Tropical Cyclogenesis Predictive Modeling. Monthly Weather Review. 2016; 144 (12):4605-4619.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJasper Wijnands; Guoqi Qian; Yuriy Kuleshov. 2016. "Variable Selection for Tropical Cyclogenesis Predictive Modeling." Monthly Weather Review 144, no. 12: 4605-4619.
Climate Risk Early Warning System for Island Nations: Tropical Cyclones | InTechOpen, Published on: 2016-11-02. Authors: Yuriy Kuleshov
Yuriy Kuleshov. Climate Risk Early Warning System for Island Nations: Tropical Cyclones. Recent Developments in Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection 2016, 1 .
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov. Climate Risk Early Warning System for Island Nations: Tropical Cyclones. Recent Developments in Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection. 2016; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov. 2016. "Climate Risk Early Warning System for Island Nations: Tropical Cyclones." Recent Developments in Tropical Cyclone Dynamics, Prediction, and Detection , no. : 1.
A tropical cyclone (TC) making landfall at a populated coastal area can cause both loss of life and damage to infrastructure and the natural environment. Wind field models which accurately describe the spatial distribution of TC wind speeds can assist in reducing some of these risks, by identifying the most dangerous locations with respect to damaging winds. Existing models either have limitations in describing the skewness of the wind field or do not have the flexibility to incorporate multiple wind observations. We developed a new mathematical model to represent the temporal-spatial distribution of near-surface wind speeds in a TC over an open ocean that captures asymmetries in both the eyewall and tail of the wind profile. The model formulation is flexible, with options for a generic fit or inclusion of extra observations to achieve a fit with higher accuracy and has tuning parameters for calibration to wind observations. Utilising several covariates that could be obtained from satellite remote sensing data, we derive anchor points that the wind profile should pass through. Next, polar coordinate based cubic splines that minimise modified discontinuity energy and preserve specified shape constraints are used to model the wind speeds profile, which is formulated as solving several linear programming problems. Appropriate formulation adjustments are made for clockwise and counter clockwise rotations of air around a TC centre in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, respectively. Model performance of the generic fit is tested using near-surface wind observations at automatic weather stations. Comparison with an earlier developed wind model shows that the spline model produces more accurate wind estimates near the radius of maximum winds. Although the spline model describes TC wind speeds over water well, a limitation is its inability to capture reduction in wind speeds caused by terrain friction. Overall, the spline model can be used successfully to describe TC wind speeds over waters.
Jasper S. Wijnands; Guoqi Qian; Yuriy Kuleshov. Spline-based modelling of near-surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones. Applied Mathematical Modelling 2016, 40, 8685 -8707.
AMA StyleJasper S. Wijnands, Guoqi Qian, Yuriy Kuleshov. Spline-based modelling of near-surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones. Applied Mathematical Modelling. 2016; 40 (19-20):8685-8707.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJasper S. Wijnands; Guoqi Qian; Yuriy Kuleshov. 2016. "Spline-based modelling of near-surface wind speeds in tropical cyclones." Applied Mathematical Modelling 40, no. 19-20: 8685-8707.
Results of analysis of meteorological variables (temperature and moisture) in the Australasian region using the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) and GPS ground-based observations verified with in-situ radiosonde (RS) data are presented. The potential of using ground-based GPS observations for retrieving column integrated precipitable water vapour (PWV) over the Australian continent has been demonstrated using the Australian ground-based GPS reference stations network. Using data from the 15 ground-based GPS stations, state of the atmosphere over Victoria during a significant weather event, the March 2010 Melbourne storm has been investigated and it has been shown that the GPS observations has potential for monitoring the movement of a weather front that has sharp moisture contrast. Temperature and moisture variability in the atmosphere over various climatic regions (the Indian and the Pacific Oceans, the Antarctic and Australia) has been examined using satellite-based GPS RO and in-situ RS observations. Investigating recent atmospheric temperature trends over Antarctica, time series of the collocated GPS RO and RS data were examined and strong cooling in the lower stratosphere and warming through the troposphere over Antarctica has been identified, in agreement with outputs of climate models. With further expansion of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) system, it is expected that GNSS satellite- and ground-based measurements would be able to provide an order of magnitude larger amount of data which in turn could significantly advance weather forecasting services, climate monitoring and analysis in the Australasian region.
Yuriy Kuleshov; Suelynn Choy; Erjiang Frank Fu; Fabrice Chane-Ming; Yuei-An Liou; Alexander G. Pavelyev. Analysis of meteorological variables in the Australasian region using ground- and space-based GPS techniques. Atmospheric Research 2016, 176-177, 276 -289.
AMA StyleYuriy Kuleshov, Suelynn Choy, Erjiang Frank Fu, Fabrice Chane-Ming, Yuei-An Liou, Alexander G. Pavelyev. Analysis of meteorological variables in the Australasian region using ground- and space-based GPS techniques. Atmospheric Research. 2016; 176-177 ():276-289.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuriy Kuleshov; Suelynn Choy; Erjiang Frank Fu; Fabrice Chane-Ming; Yuei-An Liou; Alexander G. Pavelyev. 2016. "Analysis of meteorological variables in the Australasian region using ground- and space-based GPS techniques." Atmospheric Research 176-177, no. : 276-289.
Yuei-An Liou; Chung-Ru Ho; Yuriy Kuleshov; Jean-Pierre Barriot. Earth Observations and Societal Impacts 2015. Advances in Meteorology 2016, 2016, 1 -3.
AMA StyleYuei-An Liou, Chung-Ru Ho, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jean-Pierre Barriot. Earth Observations and Societal Impacts 2015. Advances in Meteorology. 2016; 2016 ():1-3.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuei-An Liou; Chung-Ru Ho; Yuriy Kuleshov; Jean-Pierre Barriot. 2016. "Earth Observations and Societal Impacts 2015." Advances in Meteorology 2016, no. : 1-3.