Climate change, a global biodiversity threat, largely influences the geographical distribution patterns of species. China is abundant in woody landscape plants. However, studies on the differences in the adaptive changes of plants under climate change between northern and southern China are unavailable. Therefore, herein, the MaxEnt model was used to predict changes in the suitable distribution area (SDA) and dominant environmental variables of 29 tree species under two climate change scenarios, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126 and 585, based on 29 woody plant species and 20 environmental variables in northern and southern China to assess the differences in the adaptive changes of plants between the two under climate change. Temperature factors dominated the SDA distribution of both northern and southern plants. Southern plants are often dominated by one climatic factor, whereas northern plants are influenced by a combination of climatic factors. Northern plants are under greater pressure from SDA change than southern plants, and their SDA shrinkage tendency is significantly higher. However, no significant difference was observed between northern and southern plants in SDA expansion, mean SDA elevation, and latitudinal change in the SDA mass center. Future climate change will drive northern and southern plants to migrate to higher latitudes rather than to higher elevations. Therefore, future climate change has varying effects on plant SDAs within China. The climate change intensity will drive northern landscape plants to experience greater SDA-change-related pressure than southern landscape plants. Therefore, northern landscape plants must be heavily monitored and protected.

The interaction between the natural environmental and socioeconomic factors is crucial for assessing the dynamics of plateau ecosystems. Therefore, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and CatBoost-SHAP model were employed to investigate changes in the ecological quality and their driving factors in the Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, China, from 2001 to 2021. The results showed an increase from 0.44 in 2001 to 0.71 in 2021 in the average RSEI for the Diqing Prefecture, indicating an overall upward trend in the ecological quality. Spatial analysis shows the percentage of the area covered by different levels of RSEI and their temporal changes. The results revealed that “good” ecological quality accounted for the largest proportion of the study area, at 42.77%, followed by “moderate” at 21.93%, and “excellent” at 16.62%. “Fair” quality areas accounted for 16.11% and “poor” quality areas only 2.57%. The study of ecological and socioeconomic drivers based on the CatBoost-SHAP framework also indicated that natural climate factors have a greater impact on ecological quality than socioeconomic factors; however, this effect differed significantly with altitude. The findings suggest that, in addition to strengthening climate monitoring, further advancements in ecological engineering are required to ensure the sustainable development of the ecosystem and the continuous improvement of the environmental quality in the Diqing Prefecture.

This study utilized the platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, biomod2, to predict and quantitatively analyze the distribution changes of Zelkova schneideriana Hand.-Mazz. under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) based on climate and land-use data. This study evaluated the geographic range changes in future distribution areas and the results indicated that, under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana would be reduced, showing a trend towards migration to higher latitudes and elevations. Particularly, in the more extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario, the contraction of the distribution area was more pronounced, accompanied by more significant migration characteristics. Furthermore, the ecological structure within the distribution area of Zelkova schneideriana also experienced significant changes, with an increasing degree of fragmentation. The variables of Bio6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range), Bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and elevation exhibited important influences on the distribution of Zelkova schneideriana, with temperature being particularly significant. Changes in land use, especially the conversion of cropland, had a significant impact on the species’ habitat. These research findings highlight the distributional pressures faced by Zelkova schneideriana in the future, emphasizing the crucial need for targeted conservation measures to protect this species and similar organisms.