The Yangtze River Basin experiences frequent extreme heatwaves and prolonged droughts, resulting in a tight supply demand balance of electricity and negatively impacting socioeconomic production. Meanwhile, ongoing inter-basin water diversion projects are planned that will divert approximately 25.263 billion cubic meters of water from the Yangtze River Basin annually, which may further affect the power supply in the region. In this study, the CLHMS-LSTM model, a land-surface hydrological model coupled with a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based reservoir operation simulation model, is used to investigate the impact of water diversions on the power generation of the Yangtze River mainstream reservoirs under extreme drought conditions. Two different water diversion schemes are adopted in this study, namely the minimum water deficit scheme (Scheme 1) and minimum construction cost scheme (Scheme 2). The results show that the land surface–hydrological model was able to well characterize the hydrological characteristics of the Yangtze River mainstem, with a daily scale determination coefficient greater than 0.85. The LSTM reservoir operation simulation model was able to simulate the reservoir releases well, with the determination coefficient greater than 0.93. The operation of the water diversion projects will result in a reduction in the power generation of the Yangtze River mainstem by 14.97 billion kilowatt-hours. As compared to the minimum construction cost scheme (Scheme 2), the minimum water deficit scheme (Scheme 1) reduces the loss of power generation by 1.38 billion kilowatt-hours. The research results provide new ideas for the decision-making process for the inter-basin water diversion project and the formulation of water diversion plans, which has implications for ensuring the security of the power supply in the water diversion area.

To alleviate regional disparities in water resource distribution and consequent scarcity, China has initiated and planned a series of inter-basin water transfer projects using the Yangtze River Basin as the source. These projects are expected to divert approximately 33.4 billion cubic meters of water annually from the Yangtze River Basin. The implementation of these water transfer projects will inevitably alter the hydrological conditions in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, impacting the reservoir storage strategies of cascading hydroelectric stations under current end-of-flood-season operational plans. This study quantitatively assesses the impact of water transfer projects on end-of-flood-season reservoir storage in cascading systems using the reservoir fullness ratio as an indicator. Employing reservoir storage analysis models, optimization techniques, and flood risk assessment methods, we simulated reservoir storage processes to evaluate associated flood risks and derive an optimized timing strategy for cascading reservoir storage. The results indicate that advancing the reservoir filling schedule by five days for both the Baihetan and Three Gorges dams can offset the adverse impacts of water transfer projects on reservoir storage efficiency. This adjustment restores the reservoir fullness ratio to levels observed in scenarios without water transfers while still meeting flood control requirements. After optimizing the timing of reservoir filling, the electricity generation capacity for the Baihetan and Three Gorges dams increased by 1.357 and 3.183 billion kWh, respectively, under non-transfer scenarios. In water transfer scenarios, the electricity generation for the Baihetan and Three Gorges dams increased by 1.48 and 2.759 billion kWh, respectively. By optimizing reservoir filling schedules, we not only improved the reservoir fullness ratio but also enhanced the electricity generation efficiency of the cascading systems, offering valuable insights for future reservoir operation optimization.