As an effective eigen method for phenomenon identification and space reduction, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is widely used in climate research. However, because of its orthorgonality constraint, EOF analysis has a tendency to produce unphysical modes. Previous studies have shown that the drawbacks of EOF analysis could be partly alleviated by rotated EOF (REOF) analysis, but such studies are always based on specific cases. This paper provides a thorough statistical evaluation of REOF analysis by comparing its ability with that of EOF analysis in reproducing a large number of randomly selected stationary modes of variability. The synthetic experiments indicate that REOF analysis is overwhelmingly a better choice in terms of accuracy and effectiveness, especially for picking up localized patterns. When applied to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability, REOF and EOF analyses show obvious discrepancies, with the former making much better physical sense. This challenges the validity of the so-called sea surface temperature cooling mode and the spatial structure of “El Niño Modoki,” both of which are recently identified by EOF analysis. At any rate, one has to be cautious when claiming new discoveries of climate modes based on EOF analysis alone.

The westerly wind burst (WWB) in the equatorial Pacific strongly impacts on the genesis and diversity of El Niño, as manifested by its crucial role in the 2014–2016 El Niño events. However, the origin of WWB is still far from clear, rendering El Niño prediction, a persistently challenging task. Here we confirm a robust linkage between WWB and tropical cyclone (TC) from a set of observational and reanalysis data. Specifically, about 69% of WWBs were closely associated with TCs in the western tropical Pacific, and the three‐dimensional structure of WWBs highly resembled that of TCs. Such a close relationship readily explains not only the unidirectional and intermittent nature of WWBs but also the state dependency, seasonality, and spatial distribution of these bursts. An important implication is that, with skillful seasonal forecast of WWB‐associated TCs, we may be able to predict the seasonal activity of WWBs and thus improve El Niño prediction.

El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) triggers variations of the global Hadley circulation (HC), while the latter may potentially feedback to ENSO events. Previous studies mainly investigated the interactions between ENSO and the global zonal‐mean HC. Here, we present a regional perspective of HC variability by introducing zonal variations. Results show that El Niño intensifies the regional HC over the central‐eastern Pacific, while weakening the regional HC over both the Indo‐Pacific warm pool and the tropical Atlantic. The background seasonal cycle modulates the equatorial‐asymmetric component of HC, with an anticlockwise (clockwise) asymmetric circulation over the central equatorial Pacific before (after) El Niño peaks. Remarkably, the asymmetric HC in boreal spring leads ENSO with a lead correlation of up to 0.68, mediated by the wind‐evaporation‐sea surface temperature (SST) feedback and other atmosphere‐ocean dynamics. The antecedent HC anomaly may contribute to ENSO predictability.

Whether the state-of-the-art CMIP5 models have different El Niño types and how the degree of modeled El Niño diversity would be impacted by the future global warming are still heavily debated. In this study, cluster analysis is used to investigate El Niño diversity in 30 CMIP5 models. As the method does not rely on any prior knowledge of the patterns of El Niño seen in observations, it provides a practical way to identify the degree of El Niño diversity in models. Under the historical scenario, most models show a poor degree of El Niño diversity in their own model world, primarily due to the lopsided numbers of events belonging to the two modeled El Niño types and the weak compactness of events in each cluster. Four models are found showing significant El Niño diversity, yet none of them captures the longitudinal distributions of the warming centers of the two El Niño types seen in the observations. Heat budget analysis of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly suggests that the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is highly related to the climatological zonal SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific in models. As the gradient is weakened in most models under the future high-emission scenario, the degree of modeled El Niño diversity is further reduced in the future. The results indicate that a better simulation of the SST gradient over the western-central equatorial Pacific might allow a more reliable simulation/projection of El Niño diversity in most CMIP5 models.

The equatorial westerly wind bursts (WWBs) play an important role in modulating and predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, the ability of the Community Atmospheric Model version 4 (CAM4) and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) in simulating WWBs is systematically evaluated. Many characteristics of WWBs, including their longitude distributions, durations, zonal extensions, variabilities at seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales, as well as their relations with the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and ENSO, are discussed. Generally speaking, these characteristics of WWBs can be successfully reproduced by CAM4, owning to the improvement of the deep convection in the model. In CCSM4, significant bias such as the lack of the equatorial Pacific WWBs in boreal spring season and the weak modulation by a strong MJO are found. Our findings confirm the fact that the WWBs are greatly modulated by the surface temperature. It’s also suggested that improving the air-sea coupling in CCSM4 may improve model performance in simulating WWBs, and may further improve the predictability of ENSO in the coupled model.

Numerous studies have investigated the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in modulating the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western Pacific on interannual time scales, but the effects of TCs on ENSO are less discussed. Some studies have found that TCs sharply increase surface westerly anomalies over the equatorial western–central Pacific and maintain them there for a few days. Given the strong influence of equatorial surface westerly wind bursts on ENSO, as confirmed by much recent literature, the effects of TCs on ENSO may be much greater than previously expected. Using recently released observations and reanalysis datasets, it is found that the majority of near-equatorial TCs (simply TCs hereafter) are associated with strong westerly anomalies at the equator, and the number and longitude of TCs are significantly correlated with ENSO strength. When TC-related wind stresses are added into an intermediate coupled model, the simulated ENSO becomes more irregular, and both ENSO magnitude and skewness approach those of observations, as compared with simulations without TCs. Adding TCs into the model system does not break the linkage between the heat content anomaly and subsequent ENSO event in the model, which manifest the classic recharge–discharge ENSO dynamics. However, the influence of TCs on ENSO is so strong that ENSO magnitude and sometimes its final state—that is, either El Niño or La Niña—largely depend on the number and timing of TCs during the event year. Our findings suggest that TCs play a prominent role in ENSO dynamics, and their effects must be considered in ENSO forecast models.