Spectral analysis of 100-year time series of Arctic surface temperature (Arctic dT), mean temperature of 200-m water column along the Kola meridian and global surface temperature anomaly (Global dT) was performed. It is shown that climatic indices of the Arctic region undergo long-term 50–70-year fluctuations similar to fluctuations of Global dT and Arctic dT for the last 1500-year reconstructed period and the recent 140 years of instrumental measurements. Long-term changes of Atlantic spring-spawning herring and Northeast Arctic cod commercial stocks also show 50–70-year fluctuations that are synchronous with the fluctuations of climatic indices. A simple stochastic model is suggested that makes it possible to predict the probable trends of basic climatic indices and populations of major commercial fish species for up to 20–30 years into the future. The results obtained also elucidate the old discussion: which factor is more influential on the longterm fluctuations of major commercial stocks, climate or commercial fisheries? We think that what we have learned is that climate is of priority, but which factor(s) cause(s) what, for which species, seems as yet unanswered.

Records of the IRIS broadband stations in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Magadan, Yakutsk, Arti, and Obninsk obtained before the Kronotskii (Kamchatka Peninsula) M = 7.7 earthquake of De

The field of low-frequency microseisms is investigated with the use of data from 83 stations of the F-net broadband network in Japan over the period from the beginning of 1997 through June 2008. Vertical components with a sampling step of 1 s are used for analysis, as well as signals with a sampling step of 1 min obtained from the initial data by averaging and thinning. Long-period regularities of changes in the singularity spectrum support width Δα and the generalized Hurst exponent α* for the field of low-frequency microseisms were revealed by estimating multifractal singularity spectra in consecutive time windows 30 min long for 1-s data and 24 hour long for 1-min data. The average value of the parameter α* for 1-s data significantly decreased before the Hokkaido earthquake of September 25, 2003 (M = 8.3), and was not restored subsequently to its previous level. Prior to September 2003, 1-min data on α* variations experienced strong annual changes, which completely ceased afterwards. Both these effects are interpreted as an increase in the degree of synchronization of microseismic noise on Japan’s islands after the September 25, 2003, earthquake. This hypothesis is also supported by estimates of the measures of correlation and spectral coherence between variations in the average values of Δα and α* calculated for 1-min data inside five spatial clusters of stations from consecutive time fragments two months long. Based on the well-known statement of the theory of catastrophes that synchronization is one of the flags of an approaching catastrophe, it was suggested that the Hokkaido event could be a foreshock of an even stronger earthquake nucleating in the region of Japan’s islands.

Microseismic records from five broadband IRIS stations located at distances of 1000–2000 km from the earthquake source are studied. Unordinary programs are used to extract hidden periodicities, determine signal coherence at different stations, and reveal asymmetry in wave amplitudes. The records obtained at a few stations 60 h before the Sumatra earthquake include periodic oscillations in the range of periods from 20 to 60 min that arose after the McQuary earthquake and continued for about 24 h. Synchronization of waves recorded at all stations commenced 53 h before the Sumatra earthquake and continued up to the time of the earthquake, with the predominant period gradually increasing from a few minutes to tens of minutes.