The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for many vaccines and antibody-based prophylactics aimed at bringing COVID-19 under control. Such a narrow molecular focus raises the specter of viral immune evasion as a potential failure mode for these biomedical interventions. With the emergence of new strains of SARS-CoV-2 with altered transmissibility and immune evasion potential, a critical question is this: how easily can the virus escape neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) targeting the spike RBD? To answer this question, we combined an analysis of the RBD structure-function with an evolutionary modeling framework. Our structure-function analysis revealed that epitopes for RBD-targeting nAbs overlap one another substantially and can be evaded by escape mutants with ACE2 affinities comparable to the wild type, that are observed in sequence surveillance data and infect cells in vitro. This suggests that the fitness cost of nAb-evading mutations is low. We then used evolutionary modeling to predict the frequency of immune escape before and after the widespread presence of nAbs due to vaccines, passive immunization or natural immunity. Our modeling suggests that SARS-CoV-2 mutants with one or two mildly deleterious mutations are expected to exist in high numbers due to neutral genetic variation, and consequently resistance to vaccines or other prophylactics that rely on one or two antibodies for protection can develop quickly -and repeatedly- under positive selection. Predicted resistance timelines are comparable to those of the decay kinetics of nAbs raised against vaccinal or natural antigens, raising a second potential mechanism for loss of immunity in the population. Strategies for viral elimination should therefore be diversified across molecular targets and therapeutic modalities.

The goal of this paper is predicting the conformational distributions of ligand binding sites using the AlphaFold2 (AF2) protein structure prediction program with stochastic subsampling of the multiple sequence alignment (MSA). We explored the opening of cryptic ligand binding sites in 16 proteins, where the closed and open conformations define the expected extreme points of the conformational variation. Due to the many structures of these proteins in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), we were able to study whether the distribution of X-ray structures affects the distribution of AF2 models. We have found that AF2 generates both a cluster of open and a cluster of closed models for proteins that have comparable numbers of open and closed structures in the PDB and not too many other conformations. This was observed even with default MSA parameters, thus without further subsampling. In contrast, with the exception of a single protein, AF2 did not yield multiple clusters of conformations for proteins that had imbalanced numbers of open and closed structures in the PDB, or had substantial numbers of other structures. Subsampling improved the results only for a single protein, but very shallow MSA led to incorrect structures. The ability of generating both open and closed conformations for six out of the 16 proteins agrees with the success rates of similar studies reported in the literature. However, we showed that this partial success is due to AF2 “remembering” the conformational distributions in the PDB and that the approach fails to predict rarely seen conformations.

Bacterial persisters are a quasidormant subpopulation of cells that are tolerant to antibiotic treatment. The combination of the aminoglycoside tobramycin with fumarate as an antibacterial potentiator utilizes an antipersister strategy that is aimed at reducing recurrent Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections by enhancing the killing of P. aeruginosa persisters. Stationary-phase cultures of P. aeruginosa were used to generate persister cells. A range of tobramycin concentrations was tested with a range of metabolite concentrations to determine the potentiation effect of the metabolite under a variety of conditions, including a range of pH values and in the presence of azithromycin or cystic fibrosis (CF) patient sputum. In addition, 96-well dish biofilm and colony biofilm assays were performed, and the cytotoxicity of the tobramycin-fumarate combination was determined utilizing a lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) assay. Enhanced killing of up to 6 orders of magnitude of P. aeruginosa persisters over a range of CF isolates, including mucoid and nonmucoid strains, was observed for the tobramycin-fumarate combination compared to killing with tobramycin alone. Furthermore, significant fumarate-mediated potentiation was seen in the presence of azithromycin or CF patient sputum. Fumarate also reduced the cytotoxicity of tobramycin-treated P. aeruginosa to human epithelial airway cells. Finally, in mucoid and nonmucoid CF isolates, complete eradication of P. aeruginosa biofilm was observed in the colony biofilm assay due to fumarate potentiation. These data suggest that a combination of tobramycin with fumarate as an antibacterial potentiator may be an attractive therapeutic for eliminating recurrent P. aeruginosa infections in CF patients through the eradication of bacterial persisters.

The rapid emergence of immune-evading viral variants of SARS-CoV-2 calls into question the practicality of a vaccine-only public-health strategy for managing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It has been suggested that widespread vaccination is necessary to prevent the emergence of future immune-evading mutants. Here, we examined that proposition using stochastic computational models of viral transmission and mutation. Specifically, we looked at the likelihood of emergence of immune escape variants requiring multiple mutations and the impact of vaccination on this process. Our results suggest that the transmission rate of intermediate SARS-CoV-2 mutants will impact the rate at which novel immune-evading variants appear. While vaccination can lower the rate at which new variants appear, other interventions that reduce transmission can also have the same effect. Crucially, relying solely on widespread and repeated vaccination (vaccinating the entire population multiple times a year) is not sufficient to prevent the emergence of novel immune-evading strains, if transmission rates remain high within the population. Thus, vaccines alone are incapable of slowing the pace of evolution of immune evasion, and vaccinal protection against severe and fatal outcomes for COVID-19 patients is therefore not assured.