Natural gas hydrate reservoir has been identified as a new alternative energy resource which has characteristics of weak cementation, low reservoir strength and shallow overburden depth. Thus, the stability of subsea equipment and formation can be affected during the drilling process. To quantitatively assess the vertical displacement of the formation induced by hydrate decomposition and clearly identify the influence laws of various factors on wellhead stability, this study established a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) model by using ABAQUS software. The important factor that affects the wellhead stability is the decomposition range of hydrates. Based on this, the orthogonal experimental design method was utilized to analyze the influence laws of some factors on wellhead stability, including the thickness of hydrate formation, initial hydrate saturation, overburden depth of hydrate sediment, and mudline temperature. The results revealed that the decomposition of hydrate weakens the mechanical properties of the hydrate formation, thus leading to the compression of the hydrate formation, further causing the wellhead subsidence. When the duration of drilling operations was 24 h and no decomposition of natural gas hydrate occurs, the wellhead subsidence is recorded at 0.053 m, this value increases with an increase in drilling fluid temperature. The factors were listed in descending order as following, according to their significance of influences on wellhead stability: the thickness of hydrate formation, initial hydrate saturation, overburden depth of hydrate sediment, and mudline temperature. Among the above factors, statistical significance of the mudline temperature was less than 15% confidence level, suggesting that the effect of mudline temperature on wellhead stability is negligible. These findings not only confirm the influence of hydrate decomposition on wellhead stability, but also suggest important implications for the drilling of hydrate-bearing formation.

Natural gas hydrate has been identified as a new alternative energy resource which has characteristics of weak cementation, low reservoir strength and shallow overburden depth. Thus, the stability of subsea equipment and formation can be affected during the drilling process. To quantitative assessment on the vertical displacement of the strata induced by hydrate decomposition and clearly learn the influence laws of various factors on wellhead stability, this study established a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) model by ABAQUS. The important factor that affects the wellhead stability is the decomposition range of hydrate. Based on this, the orthogonal experimental design method was utilized to analyze the influence laws of some factors on wellhead stability, including the thickness of hydrate formation, initial hydrate saturation, overburden depth of hydrate sediment, and mudline temperature. The results revealed that, the decomposition of hydrate weakens the mechanical properties of the hydrate formation, thus leading to the compression of the hydrate formation, further causing the wellhead subsidence. The factors were listed in descending order as follows according to their significance of influences on wellhead stability: the thickness of hydrate formation, initial hydrate saturation, overburden depth of hydrate sediment, and mudline temperature. In particular, the effect of mudline temperature on wellhead stability is negligible. Hence, these findings not only confirm the influence of hydrate decomposition on wellhead stability, but also provide important implications for the drilling of hydrate-bearing strata.

Permafrost is a temperature-sensitive geological formation characterized by low elasticity and high plasticity. Inappropriate engineering design during borehole drilling in permafrost can result in the collapse of surrounding strata. To evaluate the stability of borehole walls, a finite element model was developed based on the inherent physical properties of permafrost. This model was utilized to investigate the thermal, stress, and plastic yield zone evolution around the borehole during drilling with normal-temperature fluids. The borehole expansion rate was employed as a quantitative measure to assess wall stability. The analysis reveals that the strata adjacent to the borehole, when drilled with normal-temperature fluids, experience thawing and yielding, with secondary stress concentrations in unthawed strata driving the progressive expansion of the plastic zone. The degree of plastic deformation diminishes with increasing distance from the borehole. Consequently, the borehole expansion rate was utilized to evaluate collapse risk under varying conditions, including permafrost thickness, depth, plastic strain thresholds, and drilling fluid densities. The findings suggest that normal-temperature drilling fluids are appropriate for thin permafrost layers, whereas for thicker permafrost, adjustments in drilling fluid density are required to ensure the stability of borehole walls due to the elevated temperatures and geostress at greater depths.